Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $57.76 |
| 5Y Range | 37.64 – 63.03 |
| 5Y Selected | 50.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.87% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $12.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.10% |
| 10Y Range | 44.70 – 72.08 |
| 10Y Selected | 58.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.87% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $14.67 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.59% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3189 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8746 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0047 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1372 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0726 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5931 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0849 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4623 |
| Safety Score | 0.2513 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.08% | 7.62% | 7.17% | 6.72% | 6.26% | 5.81% | 5.36% | 4.91% | 4.45% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 870.98 | 937.37 | 1,004.58 | 1,072.06 | 1,139.21 | 1,205.42 | 1,270.01 | 1,332.31 | 1,391.64 | 1,447.30 |
| EBITDA | 183.62 | 197.62 | 211.78 | 226.01 | 240.17 | 254.13 | 267.74 | 280.88 | 293.38 | 305.12 |
| D&A | -59.36 | -63.89 | -68.47 | -73.07 | -77.64 | -82.16 | -86.56 | -90.81 | -94.85 | -98.64 |
| EBIT | 124.26 | 133.73 | 143.32 | 152.94 | 162.52 | 171.97 | 181.18 | 190.07 | 198.54 | 206.48 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -29.39 | -31.63 | -33.89 | -36.17 | -38.44 | -40.67 | -42.85 | -44.95 | -46.95 | -48.83 |
| NOPAT | 94.87 | 102.10 | 109.42 | 116.77 | 124.09 | 131.30 | 138.33 | 145.12 | 151.58 | 157.64 |
| Capital Expenditures | -35.34 | -38.03 | -40.76 | -43.49 | -46.22 | -48.90 | -51.52 | -54.05 | -56.46 | -58.72 |
| NWC Investment | -19.04 | -19.42 | -19.66 | -19.74 | -19.65 | -19.37 | -18.90 | -18.23 | -17.36 | -16.29 |
| (+) D&A | 59.36 | 63.89 | 68.47 | 73.07 | 77.64 | 82.16 | 86.56 | 90.81 | 94.85 | 98.64 |
| Free Cash Flow | 99.86 | 108.54 | 117.47 | 126.60 | 135.87 | 145.18 | 154.47 | 163.64 | 172.61 | 181.28 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 | 33,349,999.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 12/29/25 | 12/29/26 | 12/29/27 | 12/29/28 | 12/29/29 | 12/29/30 | 12/29/31 | 12/29/32 | 12/29/33 |
| Period End | 12/28/25 | 12/28/26 | 12/28/27 | 12/28/28 | 12/28/29 | 12/28/30 | 12/28/31 | 12/28/32 | 12/28/33 | 12/28/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/12/25 | 6/29/26 | 6/29/27 | 6/28/28 | 6/29/29 | 6/29/30 | 6/29/31 | 6/28/32 | 6/29/33 | 6/29/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 3.45 | 4.45 | 5.45 | 6.45 | 7.45 | 8.45 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 98.99 | 104.36 | 103.54 | 102.28 | 100.61 | 98.54 | 96.10 | 93.32 | 90.23 | 86.86 | Raw: 2,089.52 1,481.39 |
Raw: 2,788.03 1,278.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,991.18 | 2,253.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 407.75 | 407.75 |
| Equity Value | 1,583.43 | 1,845.99 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.35 | 33.35 |
| Fair Value | $47.48 | $55.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.87% | 74.87% |
| Buy Price | $11.93 | $13.91 |
| Current Price | $57.76 | $57.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.34% | -75.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 98.90 | 103.94 | 102.18 | 100.02 | 97.49 | 94.62 | 91.44 | 87.99 | 84.30 | 80.41 | Raw: 1,697.13 1,160.61 |
Raw: 2,264.46 957.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,663.13 | 1,898.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 407.75 | 407.75 |
| Equity Value | 1,255.38 | 1,490.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.35 | 33.35 |
| Fair Value | $37.64 | $44.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.87% | 74.87% |
| Buy Price | $9.46 | $11.23 |
| Current Price | $57.76 | $57.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.62% | -80.55% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 99.08 | 104.80 | 104.93 | 104.61 | 103.86 | 102.66 | 101.05 | 99.03 | 96.64 | 93.89 | Raw: 2,710.02 1,992.47 |
Raw: 3,615.96 1,801.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,509.76 | 2,811.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | 407.75 | 407.75 |
| Equity Value | 2,102.01 | 2,403.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.35 | 33.35 |
| Fair Value | $63.03 | $72.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.87% | 74.87% |
| Buy Price | $15.84 | $18.11 |
| Current Price | $57.76 | $57.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.58% | -68.64% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,863.80 | 4,300.25 | 9,921.75 | 22,891.97 | 52,817.52 | 121,863.28 | 281,169.18 | 648,727.87 | 1,496,778.01 | 3,453,442.53 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.99 | 2.29 | 5.28 | 12.19 | 28.12 | 64.87 | 149.68 | 345.34 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.17 | 0.35 | 0.73 | 1.55 | 3.29 | 6.95 | 14.70 | 31.08 | 65.73 | 138.90 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $46.23 | 7.39% | $33.67 | -27.18% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $33.19 | 12.79% | $30.09 | -9.33% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $64.69 | 14.76% | $26.29 | -59.36% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $39.97 | 15.09% | $30.42 | -23.89% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $31.73 | 19.12% | $56.00 | 76.49% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $39.38 | 24.64% | $81.69 | 107.44% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $40.83 | 17.91% | $37.51 | -8.13% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $26.08 | 8.03% | $33.19 | 27.25% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $23.43 | -1.86% | $23.27 | -0.67% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $25.20 | -0.25% | $13.73 | -45.52% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $17.50 | 7.30% | $8.20 | -53.12% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $12.56 | 17.02% | $35.49 | 182.54% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $16.82 | 9.16% | $14.92 | -11.32% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $9.12 | 1.30% | $6.91 | -24.27% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $8.59 | -5.27% | $4.11 | -52.11% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $4.73 | -2.27% | $5.74 | 21.39% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.15 | 14.68% | $7.37 | 242.81% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $2.37 | 18.23% | $2.14 | -9.76% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.27 | 17.29% | $4.33 | 90.86% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.96 | 12.48% | $5.69 | 190.48% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $1.93 | 2.72% | $-2.42 | -225.61% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $2.46 | -2.12% | $-0.16 | -106.61% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $3.56 | -3.32% | $-0.39 | -111.08% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $3.07 | 0.89% | $-9.44 | -407.49% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $3.07 | 4.99% | $5.13 | 67.22% |
| $31.57 - $35.27 | 3 |
| $35.27 - $38.97 | 19 |
| $38.97 - $42.67 | 46 |
| $42.67 - $46.37 | 91 |
| $46.37 - $50.07 | 140 |
| $50.07 - $53.77 | 157 |
| $53.77 - $57.46 | 139 |
| $57.46 - $61.16 | 122 |
| $61.16 - $64.86 | 92 |
| $64.86 - $68.56 | 74 |
| $68.56 - $72.26 | 35 |
| $72.26 - $75.96 | 32 |
| $75.96 - $79.66 | 13 |
| $79.66 - $83.36 | 9 |
| $83.36 - $87.06 | 10 |
| $87.06 - $90.76 | 5 |
| $90.76 - $94.46 | 5 |
| $94.46 - $98.16 | 1 |
| $98.16 - $101.86 | 3 |
| $101.86 - $105.55 | 3 |