Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $177.07 |
| 5Y Range | 164.13 – 245.41 |
| 5Y Selected | 204.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.42% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $76.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.54% |
| 10Y Range | 180.67 – 264.08 |
| 10Y Selected | 222.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.42% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $83.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3831 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8759 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0011 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7050 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0260 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7321 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0001 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3457 |
| Safety Score | 0.3758 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.56% | 9.83% | 9.11% | 8.38% | 7.65% | 6.92% | 6.19% | 5.46% | 4.73% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,641.84 | 2,901.67 | 3,165.88 | 3,431.06 | 3,693.43 | 3,948.92 | 4,193.29 | 4,422.19 | 4,631.33 | 4,816.58 |
| EBITDA | 871.29 | 956.98 | 1,044.12 | 1,131.58 | 1,218.11 | 1,302.37 | 1,382.96 | 1,458.45 | 1,527.43 | 1,588.52 |
| D&A | -44.59 | -48.98 | -53.44 | -57.91 | -62.34 | -66.65 | -70.78 | -74.64 | -78.17 | -81.30 |
| EBIT | 826.70 | 908.00 | 990.68 | 1,073.66 | 1,155.76 | 1,235.71 | 1,312.18 | 1,383.81 | 1,449.25 | 1,507.22 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -219.96 | -241.60 | -263.60 | -285.67 | -307.52 | -328.79 | -349.14 | -368.20 | -385.61 | -401.03 |
| NOPAT | 606.73 | 666.40 | 727.09 | 787.99 | 848.24 | 906.92 | 963.04 | 1,015.61 | 1,063.64 | 1,106.19 |
| Capital Expenditures | -43.00 | -47.23 | -51.53 | -55.85 | -60.12 | -64.27 | -68.25 | -71.98 | -75.38 | -78.40 |
| NWC Investment | 55.27 | 56.89 | 57.85 | 58.06 | 57.45 | 55.94 | 53.51 | 50.12 | 45.79 | 40.56 |
| (+) D&A | 44.59 | 48.98 | 53.44 | 57.91 | 62.34 | 66.65 | 70.78 | 74.64 | 78.17 | 81.30 |
| Free Cash Flow | 663.60 | 725.04 | 786.85 | 848.12 | 907.92 | 965.24 | 1,019.08 | 1,068.40 | 1,112.23 | 1,149.66 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 | 68,855,757.75 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 657.84 | 682.17 | 678.58 | 670.43 | 657.85 | 641.06 | 619.83 | 595.64 | 568.36 | 538.50 | Raw: 13,964.65 9,687.23 |
Raw: 17,682.82 7,929.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,034.09 | 14,239.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | -435.81 | -435.81 |
| Equity Value | 13,469.91 | 14,675.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 68.86 | 68.86 |
| Fair Value | $195.62 | $213.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.42% | 62.42% |
| Buy Price | $73.52 | $80.10 |
| Current Price | $177.07 | $177.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.48% | -54.77% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 657.24 | 677.83 | 668.14 | 654.11 | 636.01 | 614.15 | 588.36 | 560.26 | 529.75 | 497.36 | Raw: 11,342.00 7,572.10 |
Raw: 14,361.88 5,921.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,865.42 | 12,004.59 |
| (-) Net Debt | -435.81 | -435.81 |
| Equity Value | 11,301.23 | 12,440.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 68.86 | 68.86 |
| Fair Value | $164.13 | $180.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.42% | 62.42% |
| Buy Price | $61.68 | $67.90 |
| Current Price | $177.07 | $177.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.17% | -61.66% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 658.45 | 686.58 | 689.29 | 687.30 | 680.65 | 669.41 | 653.29 | 633.60 | 610.18 | 583.47 | Raw: 18,112.08 13,059.73 |
Raw: 22,934.52 11,195.13 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,461.99 | 17,747.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | -435.81 | -435.81 |
| Equity Value | 16,897.81 | 18,183.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 68.86 | 68.86 |
| Fair Value | $245.41 | $264.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.42% | 62.42% |
| Buy Price | $92.22 | $99.24 |
| Current Price | $177.07 | $177.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.92% | -43.95% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,162.95 | 14,804.02 | 35,560.73 | 85,420.41 | 205,188.32 | 492,882.79 | 1,183,953.56 | 2,843,974.39 | 6,831,509.76 | 16,409,966.93 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% | 140.21% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.62 | 1.48 | 3.56 | 8.54 | 20.52 | 49.29 | 118.40 | 284.40 | 683.15 | 1,641.00 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.59 | 1.28 | 2.81 | 6.19 | 13.63 | 29.98 | 66.01 | 145.33 | 319.99 | 704.54 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $52.12 | 7.39% | $92.54 | 77.56% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $46.72 | 11.42% | $85.30 | 82.57% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $44.60 | 17.26% | $116.53 | 161.28% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $34.45 | 20.94% | $130.17 | 277.86% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $24.90 | 12.20% | $3.29 | -86.80% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $22.40 | 10.69% | $77.42 | 245.62% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $22.40 | 9.63% | $65.29 | 191.49% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $22.40 | 9.50% | $47.98 | 114.21% |
| $148.45 - $164.24 | 17 |
| $164.24 - $180.03 | 87 |
| $180.03 - $195.82 | 163 |
| $195.82 - $211.60 | 207 |
| $211.60 - $227.39 | 188 |
| $227.39 - $243.18 | 134 |
| $243.18 - $258.97 | 76 |
| $258.97 - $274.76 | 59 |
| $274.76 - $290.55 | 20 |
| $290.55 - $306.33 | 19 |
| $306.33 - $322.12 | 10 |
| $322.12 - $337.91 | 6 |
| $337.91 - $353.70 | 5 |
| $353.70 - $369.49 | 7 |
| $369.49 - $385.28 | 1 |
| $385.28 - $401.07 | 0 |
| $401.07 - $416.85 | 0 |
| $416.85 - $432.64 | 0 |
| $432.64 - $448.43 | 0 |
| $448.43 - $464.22 | 1 |