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Hibbett, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$87.49
5Y Range498.59 – 763.58
5Y Selected631.09
(-) Safety Margin84.46%
5Y Buy Price$98.07
Upside (to Buy Price)12.09%
10Y Range640.90 – 969.61
10Y Selected805.25
(-) Safety Margin84.46%
10Y Buy Price$125.14
Upside (to Buy Price)43.03%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8339
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8834
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0321
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0831
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0026
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0572
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5248
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0267
Safety Score0.1554

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth19.19%17.50%15.81%14.12%12.44%10.75%9.06%7.37%5.69%4.00%
Revenue2,060.612,421.212,804.063,200.133,598.143,984.934,346.064,666.584,931.995,129.27
EBITDA511.17600.62695.59793.84892.58988.531,078.111,157.621,223.461,272.40
D&A-47.82-56.19-65.08-74.27-83.50-92.48-100.86-108.30-114.46-119.04
EBIT463.35544.43630.52719.58809.07896.05977.251,049.321,109.001,153.36
Pro forma Taxes-122.30-143.70-166.43-189.94-213.56-236.52-257.95-276.97-292.73-304.43
NOPAT341.04400.73464.09529.64595.51659.53719.30772.35816.28848.93
Capital Expenditures-59.57-70.00-81.06-92.51-104.02-115.20-125.64-134.91-142.58-148.28
NWC Investment-53.87-58.56-62.17-64.32-64.63-62.81-58.64-52.05-43.10-32.04
(+) D&A47.8256.1965.0874.2783.5092.48100.86108.30114.46119.04
Free Cash Flow275.43328.36385.93447.08510.37574.00635.88693.69745.06787.65
Diluted Shares Outstanding12,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.0012,503,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricFeb-25Feb-26Feb-27Feb-28Feb-29Feb-30Feb-31Feb-32Feb-33Feb-34
Period Start5/4/242/4/252/4/262/4/272/4/282/4/292/4/302/4/312/4/322/4/33
Period End2/3/252/3/262/3/272/3/282/3/292/3/302/3/312/3/322/3/332/3/34
Mid-Point9/18/248/5/258/5/268/5/278/4/288/5/298/5/308/5/318/4/328/5/33
Time (t)0.100.100.551.552.553.554.555.556.557.56
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.44%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.950.870.800.730.670.620.570.52
PV UFCF273.04325.52367.89390.63408.74421.37427.87427.84421.20407.79
Raw: 7,854.67
6,022.64
Raw: 12,122.03
6,008.58

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,788.469,880.48
(-) Net Debt271.09271.09
Equity Value7,517.379,609.39
(/) Shares Out12.5012.50
Fair Value$601.21$768.52
(-) Safety Margin84.46%84.46%
Buy Price$93.43$119.43
Current Price$87.49$87.49
Upside (to Buy Price)6.79%36.50%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.950.860.780.710.650.590.530.48
PV UFCF272.79325.22366.04385.15399.34407.94410.47406.72396.77380.61
Raw: 6,378.85
4,756.81
Raw: 9,844.42
4,533.65

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,505.358,284.70
(-) Net Debt271.09271.09
Equity Value6,234.268,013.61
(/) Shares Out12.5012.50
Fair Value$498.59$640.90
(-) Safety Margin84.46%84.46%
Buy Price$77.48$99.60
Current Price$87.49$87.49
Upside (to Buy Price)-11.44%13.84%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.960.890.820.760.700.650.600.56
PV UFCF273.29325.82369.75396.25418.46435.37446.17450.28447.39437.19
Raw: 10,189.13
8,035.14
Raw: 15,724.79
8,394.88

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,818.7012,394.85
(-) Net Debt271.09271.09
Equity Value9,547.6112,123.76
(/) Shares Out12.5012.50
Fair Value$763.58$969.61
(-) Safety Margin84.46%84.46%
Buy Price$118.66$150.68
Current Price$87.49$87.49
Upside (to Buy Price)35.63%72.22%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$87.49
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH100.86%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,455.916,941.5713,942.8728,005.7456,252.49112,989.10226,950.57455,854.27915,631.601,839,143.09
Constant Implied Growth100.86%100.86%100.86%100.86%100.86%100.86%100.86%100.86%100.86%100.86%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.350.691.392.805.6311.3022.7045.5991.56183.91
Discount Factor0.990.870.800.730.670.620.570.520.470.43
Present Value of Implied FCF0.340.611.122.063.796.9712.8323.6043.4580.00

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-01-31$16.3418.42%$98.21501.04%
20182018-01-31$22.6023.07%$173.04665.66%
20172017-01-31$33.0021.87%$83.31152.45%
20162016-01-31$32.3016.85%$43.7835.53%
20152015-01-31$47.0412.67%$84.3079.21%
20142014-01-31$60.0110.03%$5.05-91.59%
20132013-01-31$52.669.31%$58.9011.85%
20122012-01-31$47.938.47%$35.72-25.46%
20112011-01-31$32.028.83%$42.4732.63%
20102010-01-31$21.6510.55%$24.2912.18%
20092009-01-31$13.6112.18%$23.1269.90%
20082008-01-31$18.5911.91%$25.8338.95%
20072007-01-31$32.1111.33%$16.30-49.25%
20062006-01-31$30.659.77%$16.23-47.04%
20052005-01-31$17.2011.32%$25.0945.88%
20042004-01-31$13.8214.50%$22.3361.57%
20032003-01-31$6.3415.67%$10.2361.31%
20022002-01-31$6.0016.63%$3.63-39.49%
20012001-01-31$6.7814.57%$-5.36-179.12%
20002000-01-31$3.3512.96%$-5.72-270.80%
19991999-01-31$3.5813.50%$-3.02-184.26%
19981998-01-31$4.4615.46%$-2.60-158.36%
19971997-01-31$3.2117.69%$-3.38-205.44%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$797.75
Median
$776.44
10th Percentile
$640.05
90th Percentile
$975.66

Fair Value Distribution

$523.39 - $578.39
15
$578.39 - $633.39
71
$633.39 - $688.40
137
$688.40 - $743.40
173
$743.40 - $798.41
167
$798.41 - $853.41
156
$853.41 - $908.42
113
$908.42 - $963.42
54
$963.42 - $1,018.43
45
$1,018.43 - $1,073.43
29
$1,073.43 - $1,128.43
12
$1,128.43 - $1,183.44
4
$1,183.44 - $1,238.44
7
$1,238.44 - $1,293.45
4
$1,293.45 - $1,348.45
3
$1,348.45 - $1,403.46
5
$1,403.46 - $1,458.46
3
$1,458.46 - $1,513.47
0
$1,513.47 - $1,568.47
0
$1,568.47 - $1,623.47
2