Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $12.91 |
| 5Y Range | 51.70 – 77.71 |
| 5Y Selected | 64.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.71% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $15.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 16.73% |
| 10Y Range | 55.77 – 81.62 |
| 10Y Selected | 68.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.71% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $16.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 23.92% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9825 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9674 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1714 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0600 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7035 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5266 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6065 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3913 |
| Safety Score | 0.2329 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.15% | 5.02% | 4.89% | 4.76% | 4.64% | 4.51% | 4.38% | 4.25% | 4.13% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,252.82 | 1,315.71 | 1,380.08 | 1,445.84 | 1,512.88 | 1,581.11 | 1,650.40 | 1,720.63 | 1,791.65 | 1,863.31 |
| EBITDA | 602.88 | 633.15 | 664.12 | 695.77 | 728.03 | 760.86 | 794.21 | 828.00 | 862.18 | 896.66 |
| D&A | -43.22 | -45.39 | -47.61 | -49.88 | -52.19 | -54.55 | -56.94 | -59.36 | -61.81 | -64.28 |
| EBIT | 559.66 | 587.76 | 616.51 | 645.89 | 675.84 | 706.32 | 737.27 | 768.64 | 800.37 | 832.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -252.94 | -265.64 | -278.63 | -291.91 | -305.45 | -319.22 | -333.21 | -347.39 | -361.73 | -376.20 |
| NOPAT | 306.72 | 322.12 | 337.88 | 353.98 | 370.39 | 387.10 | 404.06 | 421.25 | 438.64 | 456.18 |
| Capital Expenditures | -49.78 | -52.28 | -54.84 | -57.45 | -60.12 | -62.83 | -65.58 | -68.37 | -71.19 | -74.04 |
| NWC Investment | 7.31 | 7.50 | 7.67 | 7.84 | 7.99 | 8.13 | 8.26 | 8.37 | 8.47 | 8.54 |
| (+) D&A | 43.22 | 45.39 | 47.61 | 49.88 | 52.19 | 54.55 | 56.94 | 59.36 | 61.81 | 64.28 |
| Free Cash Flow | 307.47 | 322.72 | 338.32 | 354.24 | 370.46 | 386.95 | 403.67 | 420.61 | 437.72 | 454.97 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 | 89,983,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 304.80 | 310.05 | 297.93 | 285.94 | 274.09 | 262.42 | 250.93 | 239.65 | 228.60 | 217.80 | Raw: 5,740.00 4,065.91 |
Raw: 7,049.39 3,230.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,538.72 | 5,903.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | -18.71 | -18.71 |
| Equity Value | 5,557.43 | 5,921.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 89.98 | 89.98 |
| Fair Value | $61.76 | $65.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.71% | 76.71% |
| Buy Price | $14.38 | $15.33 |
| Current Price | $12.91 | $12.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 11.42% | 18.72% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 304.53 | 308.75 | 293.99 | 279.59 | 265.57 | 251.95 | 238.73 | 225.94 | 213.56 | 201.62 | Raw: 4,656.08 3,181.08 |
Raw: 5,718.22 2,415.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,633.51 | 4,999.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | -18.71 | -18.71 |
| Equity Value | 4,652.22 | 5,017.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 89.98 | 89.98 |
| Fair Value | $51.70 | $55.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.71% | 76.71% |
| Buy Price | $12.04 | $12.99 |
| Current Price | $12.91 | $12.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.73% | 0.60% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 305.09 | 311.37 | 301.96 | 292.49 | 282.96 | 273.42 | 263.87 | 254.34 | 244.86 | 235.44 | Raw: 7,459.73 5,480.31 |
Raw: 9,161.43 4,559.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,974.18 | 7,325.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | -18.71 | -18.71 |
| Equity Value | 6,992.89 | 7,344.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 89.98 | 89.98 |
| Fair Value | $77.71 | $81.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.71% | 76.71% |
| Buy Price | $18.10 | $19.01 |
| Current Price | $12.91 | $12.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 40.20% | 47.24% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,770.09 | 5,642.13 | 11,491.91 | 23,406.77 | 47,675.00 | 97,104.65 | 197,783.16 | 402,845.57 | 820,517.55 | 1,671,233.58 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% | 103.68% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.28 | 0.56 | 1.15 | 2.34 | 4.77 | 9.71 | 19.78 | 40.28 | 82.05 | 167.12 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.85 | 1.59 | 2.96 | 5.53 | 10.33 | 19.28 | 36.00 | 67.22 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.75 | 21.56% | $18.05 | 85.16% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.75 | 23.27% | $18.17 | 86.37% |
| $44.56 - $49.52 | 14 |
| $49.52 - $54.47 | 63 |
| $54.47 - $59.42 | 145 |
| $59.42 - $64.38 | 220 |
| $64.38 - $69.33 | 188 |
| $69.33 - $74.28 | 148 |
| $74.28 - $79.24 | 93 |
| $79.24 - $84.19 | 46 |
| $84.19 - $89.14 | 33 |
| $89.14 - $94.10 | 22 |
| $94.10 - $99.05 | 7 |
| $99.05 - $104.01 | 5 |
| $104.01 - $108.96 | 9 |
| $108.96 - $113.91 | 3 |
| $113.91 - $118.87 | 1 |
| $118.87 - $123.82 | 0 |
| $123.82 - $128.77 | 1 |
| $128.77 - $133.73 | 1 |
| $133.73 - $138.68 | 0 |
| $138.68 - $143.64 | 1 |