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High Co. S.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.90
5Y Range26.95 – 46.19
5Y Selected36.57
(-) Safety Margin85.51%
5Y Buy Price$6.31
Upside (to Buy Price)61.83%
10Y Range28.55 – 47.82
10Y Selected38.18
(-) Safety Margin85.51%
10Y Buy Price$6.59
Upside (to Buy Price)68.98%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8702
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.1848
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0575
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0750
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0364
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2941
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1753
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0617
Safety Score0.1726

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-0.57%-0.07%0.44%0.95%1.46%1.97%2.48%2.98%3.49%4.00%
Revenue145.54145.44146.08147.47149.62152.57156.34161.01166.63173.29
EBITDA38.5238.4938.6639.0339.6040.3841.3842.6144.1045.86
D&A-5.07-5.07-5.09-5.14-5.21-5.31-5.45-5.61-5.80-6.04
EBIT33.4533.4333.5733.8934.3935.0635.9337.0038.2939.83
Pro forma Taxes-11.04-11.03-11.08-11.18-11.35-11.57-11.86-12.21-12.64-13.14
NOPAT22.4122.4022.5022.7123.0423.4924.0724.7925.6626.69
Capital Expenditures-1.54-1.54-1.55-1.56-1.59-1.62-1.66-1.71-1.77-1.84
NWC Investment-0.16-0.020.120.270.420.570.730.901.081.29
(+) D&A5.075.075.095.145.215.315.455.615.806.04
Free Cash Flow25.7825.9026.1626.5527.0827.7628.5929.6030.7832.17
Diluted Shares Outstanding19,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.5019,705,749.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.73%Terminal Growth: 2.09%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF25.6125.1423.7922.6221.6220.7620.0319.4318.9318.54
Raw: 595.74
460.24
Raw: 707.71
394.71

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value579.01611.16
(-) Net Debt-80.35-80.35
Equity Value659.36691.52
(/) Shares Out19.7119.71
Fair Value$33.46$35.09
(-) Safety Margin85.51%85.51%
Buy Price$4.85$5.08
Current Price$3.90$3.90
Upside (to Buy Price)24.32%30.38%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.73%Terminal Growth: 1.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.670.620.570.53
PV UFCF25.5825.0323.4622.1120.9319.9119.0418.2917.6617.13
Raw: 448.02
333.57
Raw: 532.22
273.04

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value450.68482.19
(-) Net Debt-80.35-80.35
Equity Value531.04562.54
(/) Shares Out19.7119.71
Fair Value$26.95$28.55
(-) Safety Margin85.51%85.51%
Buy Price$3.90$4.14
Current Price$3.90$3.90
Upside (to Buy Price)0.12%6.06%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.73%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.780.740.700.660.62
PV UFCF25.6325.2524.1123.1522.3321.6521.0920.6520.3120.07
Raw: 884.55
709.32
Raw: 1,050.79
637.64

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value829.79861.88
(-) Net Debt-80.35-80.35
Equity Value910.14942.23
(/) Shares Out19.7119.71
Fair Value$46.19$47.82
(-) Safety Margin85.51%85.51%
Buy Price$6.69$6.93
Current Price$3.90$3.90
Upside (to Buy Price)71.60%77.65%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.90
WACC Used6.7%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH-50.00%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue130.2365.1232.5616.288.144.072.031.020.510.25
Constant Implied Growth-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%-50.00%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.620.580.540.51
Present Value of Implied FCF0.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$6.083.36%$22.11263.67%
20182018-12-31$4.42-2.20%$13.92214.87%
20172017-12-31$4.98-5.62%$4.63-7.07%
20162016-12-31$6.43-3.96%$11.1072.56%
20152015-12-31$4.82-1.04%$10.00107.42%
20142014-12-31$2.283.58%$10.81374.01%
20132013-12-31$2.354.62%$6.12160.29%
20122012-12-31$2.452.93%$4.1770.33%
20112011-12-31$2.603.63%$13.65424.87%
20102010-12-31$4.531.57%$14.94229.90%
20092009-12-31$3.51-1.60%$6.7692.54%
20082008-12-31$2.530.98%$9.19263.33%
20072007-12-31$4.05-0.15%$8.65113.60%
20062006-12-31$5.551.93%$10.1082.05%
20052005-12-31$5.283.20%$9.2475.07%
20042004-12-31$3.843.45%$-5.94-254.81%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$36.84
Median
$35.16
10th Percentile
$28.51
90th Percentile
$47.04

Fair Value Distribution

$20.87 - $24.14
5
$24.14 - $27.41
64
$27.41 - $30.68
145
$30.68 - $33.95
211
$33.95 - $37.22
201
$37.22 - $40.50
132
$40.50 - $43.77
79
$43.77 - $47.04
63
$47.04 - $50.31
32
$50.31 - $53.58
26
$53.58 - $56.85
11
$56.85 - $60.12
12
$60.12 - $63.39
5
$63.39 - $66.66
5
$66.66 - $69.93
1
$69.93 - $73.20
3
$73.20 - $76.47
2
$76.47 - $79.74
0
$79.74 - $83.01
0
$83.01 - $86.28
3