| Current Price | $3.90 |
| 5Y Range | 26.95 – 46.19 |
| 5Y Selected | 36.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.51% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $6.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 61.83% |
| 10Y Range | 28.55 – 47.82 |
| 10Y Selected | 38.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.51% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $6.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 68.98% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8702 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1848 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0575 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0750 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0364 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2941 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1753 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0617 |
| Safety Score | 0.1726 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.57% | -0.07% | 0.44% | 0.95% | 1.46% | 1.97% | 2.48% | 2.98% | 3.49% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 145.54 | 145.44 | 146.08 | 147.47 | 149.62 | 152.57 | 156.34 | 161.01 | 166.63 | 173.29 |
| EBITDA | 38.52 | 38.49 | 38.66 | 39.03 | 39.60 | 40.38 | 41.38 | 42.61 | 44.10 | 45.86 |
| D&A | -5.07 | -5.07 | -5.09 | -5.14 | -5.21 | -5.31 | -5.45 | -5.61 | -5.80 | -6.04 |
| EBIT | 33.45 | 33.43 | 33.57 | 33.89 | 34.39 | 35.06 | 35.93 | 37.00 | 38.29 | 39.83 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -11.04 | -11.03 | -11.08 | -11.18 | -11.35 | -11.57 | -11.86 | -12.21 | -12.64 | -13.14 |
| NOPAT | 22.41 | 22.40 | 22.50 | 22.71 | 23.04 | 23.49 | 24.07 | 24.79 | 25.66 | 26.69 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1.54 | -1.54 | -1.55 | -1.56 | -1.59 | -1.62 | -1.66 | -1.71 | -1.77 | -1.84 |
| NWC Investment | -0.16 | -0.02 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.90 | 1.08 | 1.29 |
| (+) D&A | 5.07 | 5.07 | 5.09 | 5.14 | 5.21 | 5.31 | 5.45 | 5.61 | 5.80 | 6.04 |
| Free Cash Flow | 25.78 | 25.90 | 26.16 | 26.55 | 27.08 | 27.76 | 28.59 | 29.60 | 30.78 | 32.17 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 | 19,705,749.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 25.61 | 25.14 | 23.79 | 22.62 | 21.62 | 20.76 | 20.03 | 19.43 | 18.93 | 18.54 | Raw: 595.74 460.24 |
Raw: 707.71 394.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 579.01 | 611.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | -80.35 | -80.35 |
| Equity Value | 659.36 | 691.52 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.71 | 19.71 |
| Fair Value | $33.46 | $35.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.51% | 85.51% |
| Buy Price | $4.85 | $5.08 |
| Current Price | $3.90 | $3.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 24.32% | 30.38% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 25.58 | 25.03 | 23.46 | 22.11 | 20.93 | 19.91 | 19.04 | 18.29 | 17.66 | 17.13 | Raw: 448.02 333.57 |
Raw: 532.22 273.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 450.68 | 482.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | -80.35 | -80.35 |
| Equity Value | 531.04 | 562.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.71 | 19.71 |
| Fair Value | $26.95 | $28.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.51% | 85.51% |
| Buy Price | $3.90 | $4.14 |
| Current Price | $3.90 | $3.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 0.12% | 6.06% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 25.63 | 25.25 | 24.11 | 23.15 | 22.33 | 21.65 | 21.09 | 20.65 | 20.31 | 20.07 | Raw: 884.55 709.32 |
Raw: 1,050.79 637.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 829.79 | 861.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | -80.35 | -80.35 |
| Equity Value | 910.14 | 942.23 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.71 | 19.71 |
| Fair Value | $46.19 | $47.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.51% | 85.51% |
| Buy Price | $6.69 | $6.93 |
| Current Price | $3.90 | $3.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 71.60% | 77.65% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 130.23 | 65.12 | 32.56 | 16.28 | 8.14 | 4.07 | 2.03 | 1.02 | 0.51 | 0.25 |
| Constant Implied Growth | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $6.08 | 3.36% | $22.11 | 263.67% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $4.42 | -2.20% | $13.92 | 214.87% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $4.98 | -5.62% | $4.63 | -7.07% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.43 | -3.96% | $11.10 | 72.56% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $4.82 | -1.04% | $10.00 | 107.42% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.28 | 3.58% | $10.81 | 374.01% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $2.35 | 4.62% | $6.12 | 160.29% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $2.45 | 2.93% | $4.17 | 70.33% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $2.60 | 3.63% | $13.65 | 424.87% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $4.53 | 1.57% | $14.94 | 229.90% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.51 | -1.60% | $6.76 | 92.54% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.53 | 0.98% | $9.19 | 263.33% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $4.05 | -0.15% | $8.65 | 113.60% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $5.55 | 1.93% | $10.10 | 82.05% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $5.28 | 3.20% | $9.24 | 75.07% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $3.84 | 3.45% | $-5.94 | -254.81% |
| $20.87 - $24.14 | 5 |
| $24.14 - $27.41 | 64 |
| $27.41 - $30.68 | 145 |
| $30.68 - $33.95 | 211 |
| $33.95 - $37.22 | 201 |
| $37.22 - $40.50 | 132 |
| $40.50 - $43.77 | 79 |
| $43.77 - $47.04 | 63 |
| $47.04 - $50.31 | 32 |
| $50.31 - $53.58 | 26 |
| $53.58 - $56.85 | 11 |
| $56.85 - $60.12 | 12 |
| $60.12 - $63.39 | 5 |
| $63.39 - $66.66 | 5 |
| $66.66 - $69.93 | 1 |
| $69.93 - $73.20 | 3 |
| $73.20 - $76.47 | 2 |
| $76.47 - $79.74 | 0 |
| $79.74 - $83.01 | 0 |
| $83.01 - $86.28 | 3 |