Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $187.63 |
| 5Y Range | 694.25 – 1,016.90 |
| 5Y Selected | 855.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.86% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $138.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -26.40% |
| 10Y Range | 702.17 – 988.00 |
| 10Y Selected | 845.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.86% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $136.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -27.31% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9637 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7124 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3362 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0293 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3979 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0362 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5786 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4019 |
| Safety Score | 0.1614 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 18.20% | 16.62% | 15.05% | 13.47% | 11.89% | 10.31% | 8.73% | 7.16% | 5.58% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 885.87 | 1,033.14 | 1,188.58 | 1,348.66 | 1,509.02 | 1,664.62 | 1,810.01 | 1,939.54 | 2,047.72 | 2,129.63 |
| EBITDA | 367.19 | 428.24 | 492.67 | 559.02 | 625.49 | 689.99 | 750.25 | 803.94 | 848.78 | 882.74 |
| D&A | -17.80 | -20.76 | -23.89 | -27.10 | -30.32 | -33.45 | -36.37 | -38.98 | -41.15 | -42.80 |
| EBIT | 349.39 | 407.47 | 468.78 | 531.92 | 595.16 | 656.54 | 713.88 | 764.96 | 807.63 | 839.94 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -105.20 | -122.69 | -141.15 | -160.16 | -179.21 | -197.69 | -214.95 | -230.33 | -243.18 | -252.91 |
| NOPAT | 244.19 | 284.78 | 327.63 | 371.76 | 415.96 | 458.85 | 498.93 | 534.63 | 564.45 | 587.03 |
| Capital Expenditures | -9.64 | -11.25 | -12.94 | -14.68 | -16.43 | -18.12 | -19.70 | -21.11 | -22.29 | -23.18 |
| NWC Investment | 211.41 | 228.23 | 240.90 | 248.08 | 248.51 | 241.16 | 225.32 | 200.73 | 167.66 | 126.94 |
| (+) D&A | 17.80 | 20.76 | 23.89 | 27.10 | 30.32 | 33.45 | 36.37 | 38.98 | 41.15 | 42.80 |
| Free Cash Flow | 463.76 | 522.52 | 579.48 | 632.26 | 678.37 | 715.34 | 740.91 | 753.22 | 750.97 | 733.58 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 | 12,784,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 459.74 | 502.01 | 510.30 | 510.35 | 501.90 | 485.12 | 460.56 | 429.17 | 392.20 | 351.17 | Raw: 10,299.18 7,295.39 |
Raw: 11,137.49 5,104.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,779.68 | 9,706.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | -699.85 | -699.85 |
| Equity Value | 10,479.53 | 10,406.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.78 | 12.78 |
| Fair Value | $819.71 | $814.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.86% | 83.86% |
| Buy Price | $132.30 | $131.38 |
| Current Price | $187.63 | $187.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.49% | -29.98% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 459.32 | 499.91 | 503.55 | 499.02 | 486.30 | 465.77 | 438.18 | 404.60 | 366.40 | 325.08 | Raw: 8,383.59 5,727.74 |
Raw: 9,065.97 3,828.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,175.83 | 8,277.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | -699.85 | -699.85 |
| Equity Value | 8,875.68 | 8,976.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.78 | 12.78 |
| Fair Value | $694.25 | $702.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.86% | 83.86% |
| Buy Price | $112.05 | $113.33 |
| Current Price | $187.63 | $187.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -40.28% | -39.60% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 460.16 | 504.14 | 517.21 | 522.04 | 518.15 | 505.46 | 484.31 | 455.47 | 420.09 | 379.62 | Raw: 13,311.12 9,779.05 |
Raw: 14,394.58 7,164.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,300.74 | 11,931.26 |
| (-) Net Debt | -699.85 | -699.85 |
| Equity Value | 13,000.59 | 12,631.11 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.78 | 12.78 |
| Fair Value | $1,016.90 | $988.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.86% | 83.86% |
| Buy Price | $164.13 | $159.46 |
| Current Price | $187.63 | $187.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -12.53% | -15.01% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,823.96 | 4,072.74 | 9,094.07 | 20,306.24 | 45,342.00 | 101,244.62 | 226,070.13 | 504,794.29 | 1,127,160.29 | 2,516,847.67 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.18 | 0.41 | 0.91 | 2.03 | 4.53 | 10.12 | 22.61 | 50.48 | 112.72 | 251.68 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.17 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.38 | 2.82 | 5.77 | 11.81 | 24.16 | 49.46 | 101.23 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $45.65 | 14.49% | $194.67 | 326.43% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $50.81 | 14.17% | $89.06 | 75.29% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $29.90 | 17.30% | $50.95 | 70.40% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $39.48 | 13.53% | $264.59 | 570.20% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $34.85 | 7.15% | $109.31 | 213.65% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $43.24 | 1.93% | $164.97 | 281.52% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $53.50 | 1.33% | $93.25 | 74.30% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $20.79 | 5.03% | $258.80 | 1,144.84% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $8.01 | 10.13% | $216.78 | 2,606.42% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $8.08 | 16.92% | $51.41 | 536.32% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $7.80 | 21.68% | $-68.94 | -983.90% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $5.36 | 21.41% | $424.04 | 7,811.16% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $6.10 | 20.48% | $137.50 | 2,154.09% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $6.10 | 49.32% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $549.38 - $594.65 | 3 |
| $594.65 - $639.92 | 9 |
| $639.92 - $685.18 | 66 |
| $685.18 - $730.45 | 130 |
| $730.45 - $775.71 | 162 |
| $775.71 - $820.98 | 169 |
| $820.98 - $866.25 | 150 |
| $866.25 - $911.51 | 89 |
| $911.51 - $956.78 | 73 |
| $956.78 - $1,002.05 | 52 |
| $1,002.05 - $1,047.31 | 43 |
| $1,047.31 - $1,092.58 | 17 |
| $1,092.58 - $1,137.84 | 14 |
| $1,137.84 - $1,183.11 | 9 |
| $1,183.11 - $1,228.38 | 7 |
| $1,228.38 - $1,273.64 | 3 |
| $1,273.64 - $1,318.91 | 1 |
| $1,318.91 - $1,364.18 | 1 |
| $1,364.18 - $1,409.44 | 0 |
| $1,409.44 - $1,454.71 | 2 |