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Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: CoalSector: Energy

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$83.55
5Y Range102.45 – 151.28
5Y Selected126.86
(-) Safety Margin83.11%
5Y Buy Price$21.43
Upside (to Buy Price)-74.35%
10Y Range116.57 – 169.25
10Y Selected142.91
(-) Safety Margin83.11%
10Y Buy Price$24.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-71.11%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6363
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.5838
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2838
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2035
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2591
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4677
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0318
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0532
Safety Score0.1689

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.65%9.02%8.39%7.77%7.14%6.51%5.88%5.26%4.63%4.00%
Revenue1,672.401,823.291,976.342,129.832,281.882,430.452,573.442,708.692,834.042,947.40
EBITDA587.02639.99693.71747.59800.96853.11903.30950.77994.771,034.56
D&A-118.43-129.11-139.95-150.82-161.59-172.11-182.23-191.81-200.69-208.71
EBIT468.60510.87553.76596.77639.37681.00721.06758.96794.08825.85
Pro forma Taxes-6.76-7.37-7.99-8.61-9.23-9.83-10.41-10.96-11.46-11.92
NOPAT461.83503.50545.77588.15630.14671.17710.65748.00782.62813.92
Capital Expenditures-244.58-266.65-289.03-311.48-333.72-355.44-376.36-396.13-414.47-431.05
NWC Investment-27.33-28.02-28.42-28.50-28.23-27.59-26.55-25.11-23.28-21.05
(+) D&A118.43129.11139.95150.82161.59172.11182.23191.81200.69208.71
Free Cash Flow308.35337.95368.26398.99429.78460.24489.98518.56545.56570.54
Diluted Shares Outstanding52,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.0052,533,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.29%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF305.67324.68324.30322.06317.98312.12304.58295.47284.93273.12
Raw: 6,459.31
4,575.43
Raw: 8,574.93
3,930.00

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,170.116,994.89
(-) Net Debt-212.10-212.10
Equity Value6,382.217,207.00
(/) Shares Out52.5352.53
Fair Value$121.49$137.19
(-) Safety Margin83.11%83.11%
Buy Price$20.52$23.17
Current Price$83.55$83.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-75.44%-72.27%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.79%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF305.40323.32320.01314.91308.10299.68289.78278.55266.18252.83
Raw: 5,266.95
3,598.43
Raw: 6,992.04
2,952.98

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,170.155,911.72
(-) Net Debt-212.10-212.10
Equity Value5,382.256,123.82
(/) Shares Out52.5352.53
Fair Value$102.45$116.57
(-) Safety Margin83.11%83.11%
Buy Price$17.30$19.69
Current Price$83.55$83.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-79.29%-76.44%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.79%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF305.96326.05328.69329.44328.27325.21320.28313.57305.19295.25
Raw: 8,325.81
6,116.58
Raw: 11,052.77
5,501.29

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,734.998,679.20
(-) Net Debt-212.10-212.10
Equity Value7,947.098,891.31
(/) Shares Out52.5352.53
Fair Value$151.28$169.25
(-) Safety Margin83.11%83.11%
Buy Price$25.55$28.59
Current Price$83.55$83.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.42%-65.79%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$83.55
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH134.83%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue2,871.486,743.0115,834.3837,183.3687,316.43205,042.26481,493.901,130,676.052,655,128.806,234,950.29
Constant Implied Growth134.83%134.83%134.83%134.83%134.83%134.83%134.83%134.83%134.83%134.83%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.290.671.583.728.7320.5048.15113.07265.51623.50
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.270.541.172.525.4311.6825.1554.13116.50250.77

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$21.1317.39%$254.531,104.60%
20182018-12-31$24.1113.24%$225.21834.11%
20172017-12-31$19.723.30%$106.74441.28%
20162016-12-31$8.82-6.77%$-11.32-228.38%
20152015-12-31$8.8216.70%$-138.56-1,670.95%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$140.28
Median
$136.35
10th Percentile
$115.80
90th Percentile
$168.79

Fair Value Distribution

$95.60 - $104.88
20
$104.88 - $114.17
68
$114.17 - $123.45
140
$123.45 - $132.74
185
$132.74 - $142.02
176
$142.02 - $151.30
138
$151.30 - $160.59
116
$160.59 - $169.87
61
$169.87 - $179.16
41
$179.16 - $188.44
16
$188.44 - $197.73
17
$197.73 - $207.01
14
$207.01 - $216.29
5
$216.29 - $225.58
0
$225.58 - $234.86
1
$234.86 - $244.15
1
$244.15 - $253.43
0
$253.43 - $262.71
0
$262.71 - $272.00
0
$272.00 - $281.28
1