Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $60.99 |
| 5Y Range | 10.16 – 17.78 |
| 5Y Selected | 13.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.74% |
| 10Y Range | 10.24 – 16.93 |
| 10Y Selected | 13.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2394 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0523 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5035 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1125 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5299 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1308 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5527 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1870 |
| Safety Score | 0.1423 |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.27% | 3.35% | 3.44% | 3.52% | 3.60% | 3.68% | 3.76% | 3.84% | 3.92% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 609.27 | 629.71 | 651.34 | 674.24 | 698.49 | 724.18 | 751.39 | 780.23 | 810.81 | 843.24 |
| EBITDA | 69.32 | 71.65 | 74.11 | 76.71 | 79.47 | 82.39 | 85.49 | 88.77 | 92.25 | 95.94 |
| D&A | -27.00 | -27.91 | -28.87 | -29.88 | -30.96 | -32.10 | -33.30 | -34.58 | -35.94 | -37.37 |
| EBIT | 42.32 | 43.74 | 45.24 | 46.83 | 48.51 | 50.30 | 52.19 | 54.19 | 56.32 | 58.57 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -15.50 | -16.02 | -16.57 | -17.15 | -17.77 | -18.42 | -19.12 | -19.85 | -20.63 | -21.45 |
| NOPAT | 26.82 | 27.72 | 28.67 | 29.68 | 30.74 | 31.88 | 33.07 | 34.34 | 35.69 | 37.12 |
| Capital Expenditures | -23.56 | -24.36 | -25.19 | -26.08 | -27.02 | -28.01 | -29.06 | -30.18 | -31.36 | -32.61 |
| NWC Investment | -14.29 | -15.12 | -16.00 | -16.94 | -17.94 | -19.00 | -20.13 | -21.34 | -22.62 | -23.99 |
| (+) D&A | 27.00 | 27.91 | 28.87 | 29.88 | 30.96 | 32.10 | 33.30 | 34.58 | 35.94 | 37.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 15.97 | 16.15 | 16.34 | 16.54 | 16.75 | 16.96 | 17.18 | 17.41 | 17.64 | 17.88 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 | 12,833,091.25 |
| Metric | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/24 | 10/1/24 | 10/1/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 |
| Period End | 9/30/24 | 9/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 |
| Mid-Point | 8/15/24 | 4/1/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.83 | 16.01 | 16.06 | 14.90 | 13.83 | 12.83 | 11.91 | 11.06 | 10.27 | 9.55 | Raw: 241.62 191.00 |
Raw: 258.00 131.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 267.63 | 264.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 98.73 | 98.73 |
| Equity Value | 168.90 | 165.36 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.83 | 12.83 |
| Fair Value | $13.16 | $12.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% | 85.77% |
| Buy Price | $1.87 | $1.83 |
| Current Price | $60.99 | $60.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.93% | -96.99% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.82 | 16.00 | 16.03 | 14.74 | 13.55 | 12.46 | 11.46 | 10.55 | 9.71 | 8.94 | Raw: 198.36 152.99 |
Raw: 211.81 100.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 229.12 | 230.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 98.73 | 98.73 |
| Equity Value | 130.40 | 131.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.83 | 12.83 |
| Fair Value | $10.16 | $10.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% | 85.77% |
| Buy Price | $1.45 | $1.46 |
| Current Price | $60.99 | $60.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.63% | -97.61% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.84 | 16.03 | 16.09 | 15.07 | 14.11 | 13.21 | 12.38 | 11.60 | 10.88 | 10.20 | Raw: 308.17 249.74 |
Raw: 329.06 180.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 326.88 | 315.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | 98.73 | 98.73 |
| Equity Value | 228.15 | 217.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.83 | 12.83 |
| Fair Value | $17.78 | $16.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.77% | 85.77% |
| Buy Price | $2.53 | $2.41 |
| Current Price | $60.99 | $60.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.85% | -96.05% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,318.21 | 2,828.55 | 6,069.36 | 13,023.35 | 27,944.87 | 59,962.77 | 128,665.22 | 276,083.65 | 592,407.03 | 1,271,158.53 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% | 114.58% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.13 | 0.28 | 0.61 | 1.30 | 2.79 | 6.00 | 12.87 | 27.61 | 59.24 | 127.12 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.90 | 1.78 | 3.49 | 6.87 | 13.51 | 26.57 | 52.25 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $35.23 | 6.15% | $-39.18 | -211.20% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $35.91 | -1.27% | $1.51 | -95.80% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $37.11 | -4.70% | $26.78 | -27.83% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $37.84 | 0.63% | $41.38 | 9.36% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $45.99 | 0.56% | $-12.33 | -126.81% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $45.25 | -3.26% | $39.40 | -12.94% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $54.13 | -5.48% | $-1.22 | -102.25% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $43.45 | -7.44% | $9.45 | -78.25% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $34.92 | -5.11% | $-25.90 | -174.16% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $31.82 | 1.84% | $159.07 | 399.91% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $46.83 | 5.65% | $35.88 | -23.38% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $88.63 | -0.22% | $-18.96 | -121.40% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $39.00 | -7.90% | $-22.30 | -157.18% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $25.00 | -9.73% | $-23.65 | -194.59% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $13.50 | 4.43% | $-61.86 | -558.20% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $13.50 | 21.17% | $-61.44 | -555.10% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $13.50 | 27.39% | $73.99 | 448.05% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $13.50 | 19.09% | $-13.11 | -197.12% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $13.50 | 5.44% | $-61.91 | -558.59% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $13.50 | -3.12% | $-29.30 | -317.02% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $13.50 | -3.35% | $-6.00 | -144.44% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $13.50 | 0.08% | $-36.92 | -373.45% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $13.50 | 0.58% | $-24.83 | -283.92% |
| 1995 | 1995-09-30 | $13.50 | -0.93% | $-20.45 | -251.48% |
| $7.48 - $8.63 | 12 |
| $8.63 - $9.78 | 50 |
| $9.78 - $10.93 | 113 |
| $10.93 - $12.08 | 189 |
| $12.08 - $13.23 | 190 |
| $13.23 - $14.38 | 158 |
| $14.38 - $15.53 | 109 |
| $15.53 - $16.67 | 71 |
| $16.67 - $17.82 | 51 |
| $17.82 - $18.97 | 13 |
| $18.97 - $20.12 | 14 |
| $20.12 - $21.27 | 13 |
| $21.27 - $22.42 | 6 |
| $22.42 - $23.57 | 7 |
| $23.57 - $24.72 | 1 |
| $24.72 - $25.87 | 1 |
| $25.87 - $27.01 | 0 |
| $27.01 - $28.16 | 1 |
| $28.16 - $29.31 | 0 |
| $29.31 - $30.46 | 1 |