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Haemato AG

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$21.40
5Y Range13.97 – 22.28
5Y Selected18.12
(-) Safety Margin84.67%
5Y Buy Price$3.35
Upside (to Buy Price)-84.34%
10Y Range11.03 – 15.31
10Y Selected13.17
(-) Safety Margin84.67%
10Y Buy Price$2.44
Upside (to Buy Price)-88.62%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0267
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.2247
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1033
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1222
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2487
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1395
FCF R2 (5Y)0.7857
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4803
Safety Score0.1849

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032
% Growth-18.71%-16.19%-13.67%-11.14%-8.62%-6.09%-3.57%-1.05%1.48%4.00%
Revenue201.71169.05145.95129.69118.51111.29107.31106.19107.76112.07
EBITDA7.316.135.294.704.294.033.893.853.914.06
D&A-1.44-1.21-1.04-0.93-0.85-0.79-0.77-0.76-0.77-0.80
EBIT5.874.924.253.773.453.243.123.093.143.26
Pro forma Taxes-0.93-0.78-0.67-0.60-0.55-0.51-0.49-0.49-0.50-0.52
NOPAT4.944.143.583.182.902.732.632.602.642.75
Capital Expenditures-3.11-2.61-2.25-2.00-1.83-1.72-1.66-1.64-1.66-1.73
NWC Investment2.711.911.350.950.650.420.230.07-0.09-0.25
(+) D&A1.441.211.040.930.850.790.770.760.770.80
Free Cash Flow5.984.653.713.052.572.231.971.791.651.56
Diluted Shares Outstanding5,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.005,210,387.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-23Dec-24Dec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32
Period Start6/30/231/1/241/1/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/32
Period End12/31/2312/31/2412/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/32
Mid-Point9/30/237/1/247/2/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/32
Time (t)0.100.100.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.53%Terminal Growth: 2.11%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.66
PV UFCF5.944.623.692.962.351.901.581.351.171.04
Raw: 59.50
52.56
Raw: 36.18
23.30

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value72.1249.90
(-) Net Debt-14.97-14.97
Equity Value87.0964.88
(/) Shares Out5.215.21
Fair Value$16.72$12.45
(-) Safety Margin84.67%84.67%
Buy Price$2.56$1.91
Current Price$21.40$21.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-88.03%-91.08%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.53%Terminal Growth: 1.61%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.63
PV UFCF5.944.613.692.952.311.861.531.291.110.98
Raw: 44.19
38.33
Raw: 26.87
16.22

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value57.8442.50
(-) Net Debt-14.97-14.97
Equity Value72.8157.47
(/) Shares Out5.215.21
Fair Value$13.97$11.03
(-) Safety Margin84.67%84.67%
Buy Price$2.14$1.69
Current Price$21.40$21.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-89.99%-92.10%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.53%Terminal Growth: 2.61%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.71
PV UFCF5.954.623.692.982.381.951.641.411.231.11
Raw: 90.54
81.48
Raw: 55.06
37.86

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value101.1064.81
(-) Net Debt-14.97-14.97
Equity Value116.0779.78
(/) Shares Out5.215.21
Fair Value$22.28$15.31
(-) Safety Margin84.67%84.67%
Buy Price$3.41$2.35
Current Price$21.40$21.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-84.04%-89.03%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$21.40
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH62.92%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue839.531,367.772,228.393,630.515,914.879,636.5715,700.0225,578.6441,673.0267,894.16
Constant Implied Growth62.92%62.92%62.92%62.92%62.92%62.92%62.92%62.92%62.92%62.92%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.080.140.220.360.590.961.572.564.176.79
Discount Factor0.990.860.800.750.710.660.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF0.080.120.180.270.420.640.981.502.293.50

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20172017-12-31$51.00-23.45%$-32.07-162.88%
20162016-12-31$64.36-26.92%$16.59-74.23%
20152015-12-31$49.00-23.81%$-9.49-119.36%
20142014-12-31$41.98-5.70%$-7.66-118.25%
20132013-12-31$43.206.50%$-330.39-864.80%
20122012-12-31$16.8011.47%$-47.49-382.70%
20112011-12-31$16.3149.70%$-633.95-3,986.86%
20102010-12-31$11.5073.39%$59.10413.91%
20092009-12-31$13.4058.77%$-975.50-7,379.82%
20082008-12-31$16.1056.32%$-365.08-2,367.57%
20072007-12-31$40.001.88%$187.11367.76%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$12.98
Median
$12.48
10th Percentile
$11.02
90th Percentile
$15.52

Fair Value Distribution

$9.71 - $10.89
77
$10.89 - $12.08
311
$12.08 - $13.27
301
$13.27 - $14.46
143
$14.46 - $15.64
76
$15.64 - $16.83
43
$16.83 - $18.02
19
$18.02 - $19.21
9
$19.21 - $20.39
8
$20.39 - $21.58
3
$21.58 - $22.77
3
$22.77 - $23.96
2
$23.96 - $25.14
1
$25.14 - $26.33
1
$26.33 - $27.52
0
$27.52 - $28.71
1
$28.71 - $29.90
0
$29.90 - $31.08
0
$31.08 - $32.27
0
$32.27 - $33.46
2