Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $18.38 |
| 5Y Range | 282.21 – 506.76 |
| 5Y Selected | 394.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.60% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $71.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 289.98% |
| 10Y Range | 281.69 – 485.58 |
| 10Y Selected | 383.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.60% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $69.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 279.25% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2196 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0533 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2641 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4532 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4265 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4702 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6062 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0086 |
| Safety Score | 0.1817 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -8.48% | -7.09% | -5.70% | -4.32% | -2.93% | -1.55% | -0.16% | 1.23% | 2.61% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 31,779.76 | 29,526.55 | 27,842.41 | 26,640.30 | 25,859.40 | 25,459.86 | 25,419.43 | 25,731.45 | 26,404.01 | 27,460.17 |
| EBITDA | 21,072.59 | 19,578.53 | 18,461.81 | 17,664.71 | 17,146.90 | 16,881.98 | 16,855.17 | 17,062.07 | 17,508.03 | 18,208.35 |
| D&A | -213.90 | -198.74 | -187.40 | -179.31 | -174.06 | -171.37 | -171.09 | -173.19 | -177.72 | -184.83 |
| EBIT | 20,858.69 | 19,379.79 | 18,274.41 | 17,485.40 | 16,972.85 | 16,710.61 | 16,684.08 | 16,888.87 | 17,330.30 | 18,023.52 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,055.61 | -1,909.86 | -1,800.93 | -1,723.17 | -1,672.66 | -1,646.82 | -1,644.20 | -1,664.39 | -1,707.89 | -1,776.20 |
| NOPAT | 18,803.08 | 17,469.93 | 16,473.48 | 15,762.22 | 15,300.19 | 15,063.79 | 15,039.88 | 15,224.49 | 15,622.42 | 16,247.31 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | -259.62 | -198.75 | -148.56 | -106.04 | -68.88 | -35.24 | -3.57 | 27.52 | 59.33 | 93.16 |
| (+) D&A | 213.90 | 198.74 | 187.40 | 179.31 | 174.06 | 171.37 | 171.09 | 173.19 | 177.72 | 184.83 |
| Free Cash Flow | 18,757.36 | 17,469.91 | 16,512.32 | 15,835.50 | 15,405.36 | 15,199.92 | 15,207.40 | 15,425.20 | 15,859.46 | 16,525.31 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 | 933,078,378.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,635.56 | 16,965.19 | 15,023.90 | 13,490.56 | 12,296.37 | 11,367.18 | 10,655.49 | 10,126.42 | 9,754.84 | 9,523.30 | Raw: 334,058.59 258,095.79 |
Raw: 358,344.15 199,890.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 334,507.37 | 327,729.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | -213.59 | -213.59 |
| Equity Value | 334,720.96 | 327,942.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 933.08 | 933.08 |
| Fair Value | $358.73 | $351.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.60% | 84.60% |
| Buy Price | $55.24 | $54.13 |
| Current Price | $18.38 | $18.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 200.57% | 194.48% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,618.19 | 16,894.14 | 14,822.11 | 13,184.60 | 11,905.93 | 10,904.09 | 10,126.51 | 9,534.38 | 9,099.27 | 8,800.84 | Raw: 252,062.18 187,684.16 |
Raw: 270,386.72 138,735.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 263,109.14 | 262,625.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | -213.59 | -213.59 |
| Equity Value | 263,322.73 | 262,839.29 |
| (/) Shares Out | 933.08 | 933.08 |
| Fair Value | $282.21 | $281.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.60% | 84.60% |
| Buy Price | $43.46 | $43.38 |
| Current Price | $18.38 | $18.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 136.45% | 136.02% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,653.11 | 17,037.21 | 15,230.38 | 13,806.61 | 12,703.46 | 11,854.58 | 11,217.47 | 10,761.32 | 10,464.49 | 10,312.74 | Raw: 492,805.89 395,205.96 |
Raw: 528,632.14 320,830.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 472,636.73 | 452,871.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | -213.59 | -213.59 |
| Equity Value | 472,850.32 | 453,085.28 |
| (/) Shares Out | 933.08 | 933.08 |
| Fair Value | $506.76 | $485.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.60% | 84.60% |
| Buy Price | $78.04 | $74.78 |
| Current Price | $18.38 | $18.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 324.60% | 306.85% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 64,813.11 | 116,726.09 | 210,219.53 | 378,597.88 | 681,841.29 | 1,227,971.86 | 2,211,533.56 | 3,982,893.11 | 7,173,048.52 | 12,918,404.70 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% | 80.10% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.48 | 11.67 | 21.02 | 37.86 | 68.18 | 122.80 | 221.15 | 398.29 | 717.30 | 1,291.84 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 6.14 | 9.94 | 16.78 | 28.31 | 47.78 | 80.61 | 136.03 | 229.53 | 387.30 | 653.52 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $14.30 | 11.31% | $150.87 | 955.03% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $14.00 | 6.58% | $49.29 | 252.08% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $21.20 | 20.25% | $92.29 | 335.34% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $21.29 | 27.06% | $110.54 | 419.19% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $23.46 | 34.63% | $137.05 | 484.20% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $23.63 | 25.03% | $98.92 | 318.61% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $24.55 | 4.94% | $52.38 | 113.34% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $24.67 | 4.04% | $34.59 | 40.21% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $24.67 | -2.72% | $24.88 | 0.87% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $24.67 | -2.28% | $24.33 | -1.40% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.67 | 1.66% | $25.55 | 3.57% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $24.67 | 4.97% | $31.16 | 26.31% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $24.67 | 7.79% | $29.14 | 18.11% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $24.67 | 9.61% | $22.07 | -10.52% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $24.67 | 14.68% | $18.46 | -25.17% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $24.67 | 14.29% | $23.69 | -3.99% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $24.67 | 10.68% | $-0.58 | -102.35% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $24.67 | 5.41% | $-0.89 | -103.59% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $24.67 | 1.01% | $5.14 | -79.17% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $24.67 | 5.65% | $-0.59 | -102.40% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $24.67 | 16.32% | $7.60 | -69.20% |
| $218.46 - $258.57 | 35 |
| $258.57 - $298.69 | 153 |
| $298.69 - $338.80 | 263 |
| $338.80 - $378.92 | 187 |
| $378.92 - $419.03 | 140 |
| $419.03 - $459.14 | 80 |
| $459.14 - $499.26 | 58 |
| $499.26 - $539.37 | 34 |
| $539.37 - $579.49 | 14 |
| $579.49 - $619.60 | 9 |
| $619.60 - $659.71 | 7 |
| $659.71 - $699.83 | 9 |
| $699.83 - $739.94 | 4 |
| $739.94 - $780.06 | 3 |
| $780.06 - $820.17 | 1 |
| $820.17 - $860.28 | 1 |
| $860.28 - $900.40 | 0 |
| $900.40 - $940.51 | 1 |
| $940.51 - $980.63 | 0 |
| $980.63 - $1,020.74 | 1 |