Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $115.75 |
| 5Y Range | 27.96 – 47.01 |
| 5Y Selected | 37.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.97% |
| 10Y Range | 29.75 – 47.85 |
| 10Y Selected | 38.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $6.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.79% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2963 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7953 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7697 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0269 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8316 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0915 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1461 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1341 |
| Safety Score | 0.1553 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.84% | 1.19% | 1.55% | 1.90% | 2.25% | 2.60% | 2.95% | 3.30% | 3.65% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,041.41 | 4,089.70 | 4,152.90 | 4,231.65 | 4,326.73 | 4,439.11 | 4,569.98 | 4,720.73 | 4,893.00 | 5,088.72 |
| EBITDA | 400.63 | 405.42 | 411.68 | 419.49 | 428.91 | 440.06 | 453.03 | 467.97 | 485.05 | 504.45 |
| D&A | -115.42 | -116.80 | -118.61 | -120.86 | -123.57 | -126.78 | -130.52 | -134.82 | -139.74 | -145.33 |
| EBIT | 285.21 | 288.62 | 293.08 | 298.63 | 305.34 | 313.28 | 322.51 | 333.15 | 345.31 | 359.12 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -126.18 | -127.69 | -129.66 | -132.12 | -135.09 | -138.60 | -142.68 | -147.39 | -152.77 | -158.88 |
| NOPAT | 159.03 | 160.93 | 163.42 | 166.52 | 170.26 | 174.68 | 179.83 | 185.76 | 192.54 | 200.24 |
| Capital Expenditures | -127.24 | -128.76 | -130.75 | -133.23 | -136.23 | -139.77 | -143.89 | -148.63 | -154.06 | -160.22 |
| NWC Investment | -0.50 | -0.72 | -0.94 | -1.17 | -1.42 | -1.68 | -1.95 | -2.25 | -2.57 | -2.92 |
| (+) D&A | 115.42 | 116.80 | 118.61 | 120.86 | 123.57 | 126.78 | 130.52 | 134.82 | 139.74 | 145.33 |
| Free Cash Flow | 146.70 | 148.25 | 150.33 | 152.96 | 156.18 | 160.02 | 164.51 | 169.70 | 175.66 | 182.44 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 | 50,500,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 145.43 | 142.55 | 132.49 | 123.47 | 115.55 | 108.52 | 102.26 | 96.69 | 91.74 | 87.33 | Raw: 2,386.84 1,690.71 |
Raw: 2,788.07 1,277.81 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,350.21 | 2,423.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 564.69 | 564.69 |
| Equity Value | 1,785.51 | 1,859.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 50.50 | 50.50 |
| Fair Value | $35.36 | $36.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.47% | 84.47% |
| Buy Price | $5.49 | $5.72 |
| Current Price | $115.75 | $115.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.26% | -95.06% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 145.30 | 141.97 | 130.75 | 120.73 | 111.96 | 104.19 | 97.29 | 91.16 | 85.70 | 80.85 | Raw: 1,940.72 1,325.92 |
Raw: 2,266.96 957.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,976.62 | 2,067.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 564.69 | 564.69 |
| Equity Value | 1,411.93 | 1,502.62 |
| (/) Shares Out | 50.50 | 50.50 |
| Fair Value | $27.96 | $29.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.47% | 84.47% |
| Buy Price | $4.34 | $4.62 |
| Current Price | $115.75 | $115.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.25% | -96.01% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 145.56 | 143.14 | 134.28 | 126.30 | 119.29 | 113.07 | 107.53 | 102.62 | 98.26 | 94.41 | Raw: 3,090.32 2,270.31 |
Raw: 3,609.81 1,796.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,938.89 | 2,981.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 564.69 | 564.69 |
| Equity Value | 2,374.19 | 2,416.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 50.50 | 50.50 |
| Fair Value | $47.01 | $47.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.47% | 84.47% |
| Buy Price | $7.30 | $7.43 |
| Current Price | $115.75 | $115.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.69% | -93.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 9,155.23 | 19,785.67 | 42,759.47 | 92,408.89 | 199,707.89 | 431,595.28 | 932,734.71 | 2,015,763.59 | 4,356,332.83 | 9,414,613.83 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% | 116.11% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.92 | 1.98 | 4.28 | 9.24 | 19.97 | 43.16 | 93.27 | 201.58 | 435.63 | 941.46 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.85 | 1.60 | 3.16 | 6.27 | 12.41 | 24.59 | 48.71 | 96.50 | 191.15 | 378.65 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $27.67 | 3.59% | $-1.71 | -106.17% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $40.28 | 4.39% | $-12.86 | -131.91% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $63.43 | 1.48% | $31.92 | -49.68% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $55.00 | 0.61% | $-8.35 | -115.19% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $42.91 | 2.29% | $9.46 | -77.95% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $38.02 | 2.57% | $-0.66 | -101.73% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $34.98 | 7.59% | $-21.91 | -162.65% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $33.62 | 5.89% | $28.21 | -16.08% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $23.72 | 3.49% | $21.94 | -7.51% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $27.43 | 3.39% | $-4.30 | -115.68% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $33.66 | 5.48% | $-10.93 | -132.48% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $43.93 | 3.76% | $81.52 | 85.57% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $36.18 | -5.35% | $34.94 | -3.44% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $50.32 | -9.02% | $37.33 | -25.81% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $35.91 | -11.36% | $10.78 | -69.99% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $26.60 | -4.59% | $17.90 | -32.70% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $23.49 | 6.22% | $5.64 | -76.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $15.50 | 10.73% | $25.53 | 64.73% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $24.08 | 13.47% | $39.37 | 63.51% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $19.29 | 12.10% | $14.07 | -27.08% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $12.29 | 10.46% | $10.61 | -13.65% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $22.38 | 8.59% | $23.36 | 4.37% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $10.22 | 8.54% | $8.01 | -21.65% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $8.44 | 9.16% | $6.54 | -22.57% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $9.56 | 9.88% | $18.58 | 94.39% |
| $22.83 - $25.79 | 11 |
| $25.79 - $28.75 | 75 |
| $28.75 - $31.71 | 113 |
| $31.71 - $34.67 | 177 |
| $34.67 - $37.63 | 165 |
| $37.63 - $40.59 | 144 |
| $40.59 - $43.55 | 111 |
| $43.55 - $46.51 | 76 |
| $46.51 - $49.47 | 51 |
| $49.47 - $52.43 | 30 |
| $52.43 - $55.39 | 14 |
| $55.39 - $58.35 | 14 |
| $58.35 - $61.31 | 6 |
| $61.31 - $64.27 | 7 |
| $64.27 - $67.23 | 2 |
| $67.23 - $70.19 | 0 |
| $70.19 - $73.15 | 1 |
| $73.15 - $76.11 | 2 |
| $76.11 - $79.08 | 0 |
| $79.08 - $82.04 | 1 |