Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $309.30 |
| 5Y Range | 133.61 – 204.51 |
| 5Y Selected | 169.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.04% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $126.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.03% |
| 10Y Range | 157.28 – 236.33 |
| 10Y Selected | 196.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.04% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $147.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.30% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9498 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9737 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7103 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8783 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6923 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9013 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6848 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8984 |
| Safety Score | 0.7496 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 17.91% | 16.36% | 14.82% | 13.27% | 11.73% | 10.18% | 8.64% | 7.09% | 5.55% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 412,700.31 | 480,230.23 | 551,388.70 | 624,570.15 | 697,812.49 | 768,860.07 | 835,259.62 | 894,485.67 | 944,088.19 | 981,851.72 |
| EBITDA | 153,503.70 | 178,621.42 | 205,088.78 | 232,308.59 | 259,551.05 | 285,977.16 | 310,674.45 | 332,703.55 | 351,153.19 | 365,199.31 |
| D&A | -22,851.50 | -26,590.68 | -30,530.77 | -34,582.88 | -38,638.36 | -42,572.31 | -46,248.90 | -49,528.29 | -52,274.82 | -54,365.81 |
| EBIT | 130,652.20 | 152,030.74 | 174,558.01 | 197,725.71 | 220,912.69 | 243,404.85 | 264,425.54 | 283,175.26 | 298,878.37 | 310,833.50 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -22,687.81 | -26,400.20 | -30,312.07 | -34,335.15 | -38,361.58 | -42,267.35 | -45,917.60 | -49,173.50 | -51,900.35 | -53,976.37 |
| NOPAT | 107,964.39 | 125,630.54 | 144,245.94 | 163,390.56 | 182,551.11 | 201,137.50 | 218,507.94 | 234,001.76 | 246,978.02 | 256,857.14 |
| Capital Expenditures | -51,754.18 | -60,222.69 | -69,146.24 | -78,323.47 | -87,508.33 | -96,417.97 | -104,744.73 | -112,171.90 | -118,392.24 | -123,127.93 |
| NWC Investment | 3,348.17 | 3,607.10 | 3,800.92 | 3,908.98 | 3,912.23 | 3,795.00 | 3,546.72 | 3,163.55 | 2,649.51 | 2,017.13 |
| (+) D&A | 22,851.50 | 26,590.68 | 30,530.77 | 34,582.88 | 38,638.36 | 42,572.31 | 46,248.90 | 49,528.29 | 52,274.82 | 54,365.81 |
| Free Cash Flow | 82,409.87 | 95,605.63 | 109,431.40 | 123,558.95 | 137,593.36 | 151,086.84 | 163,558.84 | 174,521.70 | 183,510.10 | 190,112.15 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 | 12,260,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 81,695.39 | 91,931.83 | 96,451.19 | 99,734.38 | 101,800.85 | 102,462.22 | 101,670.36 | 99,438.14 | 95,839.98 | 91,008.06 | Raw: 2,132,989.02 1,510,894.48 |
Raw: 2,947,141.64 1,350,711.44 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,982,508.13 | 2,312,743.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,387.50 | 8,387.50 |
| Equity Value | 1,974,120.63 | 2,304,356.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12,260.00 | 12,260.00 |
| Fair Value | $161.02 | $187.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.04% | 25.04% |
| Buy Price | $120.70 | $140.89 |
| Current Price | $309.30 | $309.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.98% | -54.45% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 81,620.88 | 91,555.14 | 95,183.52 | 97,520.70 | 98,637.18 | 98,376.27 | 96,729.36 | 93,746.34 | 89,533.47 | 84,247.28 | Raw: 1,730,052.30 1,181,986.97 |
Raw: 2,390,405.72 1,009,550.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,646,504.40 | 1,936,700.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,387.50 | 8,387.50 |
| Equity Value | 1,638,116.90 | 1,928,312.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12,260.00 | 12,260.00 |
| Fair Value | $133.61 | $157.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.04% | 25.04% |
| Buy Price | $100.16 | $117.90 |
| Current Price | $309.30 | $309.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.62% | -61.88% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 81,770.65 | 92,313.56 | 97,747.65 | 102,019.40 | 105,096.53 | 106,757.86 | 106,912.78 | 105,532.78 | 102,655.03 | 98,381.28 | Raw: 2,772,430.29 2,036,773.36 |
Raw: 3,830,654.85 1,906,631.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,515,721.16 | 2,905,819.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,387.50 | 8,387.50 |
| Equity Value | 2,507,333.66 | 2,897,431.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12,260.00 | 12,260.00 |
| Fair Value | $204.51 | $236.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.04% | 25.04% |
| Buy Price | $153.30 | $177.15 |
| Current Price | $309.30 | $309.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -50.44% | -42.72% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,006,983.37 | 2,630,547.39 | 6,871,791.27 | 17,951,212.55 | 46,894,036.70 | 122,501,511.89 | 320,011,273.73 | 835,966,950.42 | 2,183,800,383.17 | 5,704,751,977.53 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% | 161.23% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 100.70 | 263.05 | 687.18 | 1,795.12 | 4,689.40 | 12,250.15 | 32,001.13 | 83,596.70 | 218,380.04 | 570,475.20 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 93.68 | 212.33 | 508.42 | 1,217.39 | 2,915.00 | 6,979.83 | 16,712.91 | 40,018.34 | 95,822.19 | 229,442.12 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $66.97 | 17.35% | $69.72 | 4.10% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $52.25 | 19.47% | $56.42 | 7.97% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $52.67 | 20.78% | $61.81 | 17.36% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $39.62 | 20.70% | $67.20 | 69.60% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $38.90 | 18.08% | $38.47 | -1.11% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $26.53 | 19.21% | $29.23 | 10.17% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $28.04 | 17.81% | $27.91 | -0.47% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $17.70 | 15.98% | $30.75 | 73.72% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $16.16 | 15.20% | $25.05 | 55.04% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $14.86 | 15.74% | $16.97 | 14.17% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $15.51 | 18.56% | $22.74 | 46.63% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $7.70 | 20.29% | $15.95 | 107.17% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $17.30 | 18.64% | $9.36 | -45.87% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $11.52 | 18.58% | $4.84 | -58.02% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $10.38 | 22.59% | $5.95 | -42.67% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $4.82 | 31.04% | $3.18 | -34.10% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.51 | 44.41% | $1.32 | -47.24% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $2.51 | 61.58% | $1.73 | -30.97% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.51 | 75.82% | $0.28 | -88.86% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $2.51 | 108.28% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $2.51 | 88.70% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $126.87 - $138.95 | 10 |
| $138.95 - $151.02 | 62 |
| $151.02 - $163.09 | 93 |
| $163.09 - $175.16 | 151 |
| $175.16 - $187.23 | 159 |
| $187.23 - $199.30 | 160 |
| $199.30 - $211.37 | 132 |
| $211.37 - $223.45 | 91 |
| $223.45 - $235.52 | 57 |
| $235.52 - $247.59 | 30 |
| $247.59 - $259.66 | 12 |
| $259.66 - $271.73 | 12 |
| $271.73 - $283.80 | 11 |
| $283.80 - $295.87 | 8 |
| $295.87 - $307.95 | 8 |
| $307.95 - $320.02 | 1 |
| $320.02 - $332.09 | 1 |
| $332.09 - $344.16 | 0 |
| $344.16 - $356.23 | 0 |
| $356.23 - $368.30 | 2 |