Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $140.59 |
| 5Y Range | 475.44 – 731.50 |
| 5Y Selected | 603.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.85% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $175.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 25.12% |
| 10Y Range | 482.05 – 711.52 |
| 10Y Selected | 596.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.85% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $173.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 23.74% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9710 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9922 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5314 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1565 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5968 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8579 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4275 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2861 |
| Safety Score | 0.2915 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.14% | 8.57% | 8.00% | 7.43% | 6.86% | 6.29% | 5.71% | 5.14% | 4.57% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,306.34 | 6,846.86 | 7,394.60 | 7,943.90 | 8,488.61 | 9,022.17 | 9,537.72 | 10,028.23 | 10,486.66 | 10,906.12 |
| EBITDA | 1,916.76 | 2,081.05 | 2,247.53 | 2,414.49 | 2,580.05 | 2,742.22 | 2,898.92 | 3,048.00 | 3,187.34 | 3,314.84 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 1,916.76 | 2,081.05 | 2,247.53 | 2,414.49 | 2,580.05 | 2,742.22 | 2,898.92 | 3,048.00 | 3,187.34 | 3,314.84 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -246.95 | -268.12 | -289.57 | -311.08 | -332.41 | -353.30 | -373.49 | -392.70 | -410.65 | -427.07 |
| NOPAT | 1,669.81 | 1,812.94 | 1,957.97 | 2,103.41 | 2,247.65 | 2,388.92 | 2,525.43 | 2,655.31 | 2,776.69 | 2,887.76 |
| Capital Expenditures | -53.42 | -58.00 | -62.64 | -67.29 | -71.91 | -76.43 | -80.79 | -84.95 | -88.83 | -92.38 |
| NWC Investment | 1,159.73 | 1,186.65 | 1,202.47 | 1,205.91 | 1,195.84 | 1,171.35 | 1,131.80 | 1,076.83 | 1,006.42 | 920.88 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,776.12 | 2,941.59 | 3,097.80 | 3,242.03 | 3,371.58 | 3,483.85 | 3,576.44 | 3,647.19 | 3,694.28 | 3,716.25 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 | 83,509,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,752.06 | 2,826.09 | 2,727.98 | 2,616.90 | 2,494.52 | 2,362.64 | 2,223.16 | 2,078.08 | 1,929.37 | 1,779.00 | Raw: 52,344.56 37,078.07 |
Raw: 57,695.74 26,442.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 50,495.62 | 50,232.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,526.65 | 2,526.65 |
| Equity Value | 47,968.97 | 47,705.83 |
| (/) Shares Out | 83.51 | 83.51 |
| Fair Value | $574.42 | $571.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.85% | 70.85% |
| Buy Price | $167.44 | $166.52 |
| Current Price | $140.59 | $140.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 19.10% | 18.45% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,749.55 | 2,814.26 | 2,691.88 | 2,558.82 | 2,417.00 | 2,268.42 | 2,115.12 | 1,959.13 | 1,802.42 | 1,646.84 | Raw: 42,445.32 28,999.02 |
Raw: 46,784.51 19,758.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,230.52 | 42,782.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,526.65 | 2,526.65 |
| Equity Value | 39,703.87 | 40,255.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 83.51 | 83.51 |
| Fair Value | $475.44 | $482.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.85% | 70.85% |
| Buy Price | $138.59 | $140.52 |
| Current Price | $140.59 | $140.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -1.42% | -0.05% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,754.59 | 2,838.09 | 2,764.90 | 2,676.86 | 2,575.28 | 2,461.69 | 2,337.80 | 2,205.45 | 2,066.57 | 1,923.13 | Raw: 68,064.71 50,003.92 |
Raw: 75,022.96 37,341.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 63,613.64 | 61,945.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,526.65 | 2,526.65 |
| Equity Value | 61,086.99 | 59,418.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 83.51 | 83.51 |
| Fair Value | $731.50 | $711.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.85% | 70.85% |
| Buy Price | $213.23 | $207.41 |
| Current Price | $140.59 | $140.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 51.67% | 47.53% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 13,456.03 | 30,477.28 | 69,029.64 | 156,348.93 | 354,123.06 | 802,072.31 | 1,816,656.58 | 4,114,642.88 | 9,319,475.26 | 21,108,179.16 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% | 126.50% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.35 | 3.05 | 6.90 | 15.63 | 35.41 | 80.21 | 181.67 | 411.46 | 931.95 | 2,110.82 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.25 | 2.46 | 5.11 | 10.60 | 22.01 | 45.70 | 94.88 | 196.97 | 408.93 | 848.96 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $105.25 | 9.97% | $265.09 | 151.87% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $74.53 | 8.24% | $221.14 | 196.71% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $90.71 | 8.55% | $251.91 | 177.70% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $73.76 | 8.33% | $235.57 | 219.37% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $57.16 | 7.69% | $172.31 | 201.45% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $54.17 | 7.97% | $128.37 | 136.97% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $52.10 | 8.19% | $163.90 | 214.59% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $34.45 | 8.52% | $132.02 | 283.23% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $28.93 | 7.30% | $102.81 | 255.36% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $26.55 | 8.52% | $117.60 | 342.94% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $19.53 | 10.17% | $115.85 | 493.20% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $19.87 | 11.38% | $84.04 | 322.97% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $26.90 | 10.78% | $88.62 | 229.45% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $28.34 | 6.03% | $70.86 | 150.04% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $24.71 | 3.91% | $59.95 | 142.63% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $25.40 | 5.14% | $53.90 | 112.20% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $20.24 | 7.38% | $55.80 | 175.70% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $16.24 | 9.44% | $51.37 | 216.32% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $17.48 | 9.57% | $51.16 | 192.69% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $17.08 | 8.13% | $36.79 | 115.37% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $12.92 | 8.52% | $35.12 | 171.80% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $15.69 | 9.32% | $26.71 | 70.24% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $16.19 | 9.47% | $31.83 | 96.58% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $9.69 | 9.73% | $26.47 | 173.16% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $8.68 | 6.32% | $16.23 | 86.98% |
| $355.88 - $408.99 | 4 |
| $408.99 - $462.10 | 54 |
| $462.10 - $515.21 | 184 |
| $515.21 - $568.32 | 261 |
| $568.32 - $621.43 | 184 |
| $621.43 - $674.54 | 142 |
| $674.54 - $727.65 | 87 |
| $727.65 - $780.76 | 39 |
| $780.76 - $833.87 | 21 |
| $833.87 - $886.98 | 9 |
| $886.98 - $940.09 | 6 |
| $940.09 - $993.21 | 3 |
| $993.21 - $1,046.32 | 1 |
| $1,046.32 - $1,099.43 | 1 |
| $1,099.43 - $1,152.54 | 1 |
| $1,152.54 - $1,205.65 | 1 |
| $1,205.65 - $1,258.76 | 0 |
| $1,258.76 - $1,311.87 | 1 |
| $1,311.87 - $1,364.98 | 0 |
| $1,364.98 - $1,418.09 | 1 |