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Gulf International Services Q.P.S.C.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.61
5Y Range9.82 – 22.55
5Y Selected16.19
(-) Safety Margin85.75%
5Y Buy Price$2.88
Upside (to Buy Price)10.27%
10Y Range10.88 – 24.16
10Y Selected17.52
(-) Safety Margin85.75%
10Y Buy Price$3.12
Upside (to Buy Price)19.38%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8699
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.1206
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9583
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0168
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9698
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0035
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3039
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2099
Safety Score0.1781

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.05%5.82%5.59%5.37%5.14%4.91%4.68%4.46%4.23%4.00%
Revenue4,404.844,661.214,921.905,185.975,452.405,720.125,987.986,254.746,519.166,779.93
EBITDA1,564.781,655.861,748.471,842.271,936.922,032.032,127.182,221.952,315.882,408.52
D&A-617.99-653.96-690.53-727.58-764.96-802.52-840.10-877.53-914.63-951.21
EBIT946.791,001.901,057.931,114.691,171.961,229.511,287.081,344.421,401.261,457.31
Pro forma Taxes-14.26-15.09-15.94-16.79-17.65-18.52-19.39-20.25-21.11-21.95
NOPAT932.53986.811,042.001,097.901,154.311,210.991,267.691,324.171,380.151,435.35
Capital Expenditures-669.73-708.71-748.35-788.50-829.01-869.71-910.44-951.00-991.20-1,030.85
NWC Investment-36.09-36.83-37.45-37.94-38.28-38.46-38.48-38.32-37.99-37.46
(+) D&A617.99653.96690.53727.58764.96802.52840.10877.53914.63951.21
Free Cash Flow844.71895.23946.73999.051,051.991,105.341,158.881,212.381,265.591,318.26
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.001,858,408,690.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF839.53870.26865.44858.79850.36840.19828.35814.90799.93783.52
Raw: 28,642.43
22,451.52
Raw: 35,892.07
20,686.83

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value26,735.8929,038.08
(-) Net Debt1,363.601,363.60
Equity Value25,372.2927,674.48
(/) Shares Out1,858.411,858.41
Fair Value$13.65$14.89
(-) Safety Margin85.75%85.75%
Buy Price$1.95$2.12
Current Price$2.61$2.61
Upside (to Buy Price)-25.57%-18.82%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 2.08%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF838.74866.52853.69839.24823.26805.84787.08767.09745.98723.87
Raw: 20,386.09
15,398.31
Raw: 25,545.99
13,539.33

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,619.7721,590.64
(-) Net Debt1,363.601,363.60
Equity Value18,256.1720,227.04
(/) Shares Out1,858.411,858.41
Fair Value$9.82$10.88
(-) Safety Margin85.75%85.75%
Buy Price$1.40$1.55
Current Price$2.61$2.61
Upside (to Buy Price)-46.45%-40.67%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 3.08%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF840.32874.05877.46878.98878.61876.35872.20866.19858.34848.72
Raw: 47,822.60
38,915.08
Raw: 59,926.92
37,590.87

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value43,264.5146,262.09
(-) Net Debt1,363.601,363.60
Equity Value41,900.9144,898.49
(/) Shares Out1,858.411,858.41
Fair Value$22.55$24.16
(-) Safety Margin85.75%85.75%
Buy Price$3.21$3.44
Current Price$2.61$2.61
Upside (to Buy Price)22.91%31.70%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.61
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH98.17%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue8,923.3217,683.2435,042.7069,443.75137,615.94272,712.06540,430.621,070,965.652,122,321.344,205,781.82
Constant Implied Growth98.17%98.17%98.17%98.17%98.17%98.17%98.17%98.17%98.17%98.17%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.891.773.506.9413.7627.2754.04107.10212.23420.58
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF0.851.522.835.289.8418.3334.1663.65118.62221.04

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.727.87%$5.01191.46%
20182018-12-31$1.705.24%$-0.34-120.22%
20172017-12-31$1.777.76%$1.70-4.02%
20162016-12-31$3.116.10%$0.42-86.51%
20152015-12-31$5.151.98%$3.71-27.94%
20142014-12-31$9.71-8.20%$-5.37-155.35%
20132013-12-31$4.88-13.93%$2.30-52.95%
20122012-12-31$2.40-1.14%$-2.87-219.49%
20112011-12-31$1.7312.18%$10.81524.83%
20102010-12-31$1.9726.63%$14.26623.85%
20092009-12-31$2.0226.73%$12.86536.64%
20082008-12-31$1.1615.90%$2.58122.47%
20072007-12-31$2.0520.46%$-0.23-111.05%
20062006-12-31$2.0524.80%$-0.35-117.03%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$16.73
Median
$14.84
10th Percentile
$10.95
90th Percentile
$23.95

Fair Value Distribution

$8.40 - $17.28
685
$17.28 - $26.16
236
$26.16 - $35.05
56
$35.05 - $43.93
12
$43.93 - $52.81
6
$52.81 - $61.69
3
$61.69 - $70.58
0
$70.58 - $79.46
0
$79.46 - $88.34
0
$88.34 - $97.23
0
$97.23 - $106.11
1
$106.11 - $114.99
0
$114.99 - $123.87
0
$123.87 - $132.76
0
$132.76 - $141.64
0
$141.64 - $150.52
0
$150.52 - $159.40
0
$159.40 - $168.29
0
$168.29 - $177.17
0
$177.17 - $186.05
0