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Guild Holdings Company

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$20.01
5Y Range2.28 – 24.86
5Y Selected13.57
(-) Safety Margin85.91%
5Y Buy Price$1.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-90.44%
10Y Range3.82 – 24.74
10Y Selected14.28
(-) Safety Margin85.91%
10Y Buy Price$2.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-89.94%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6134
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0495
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6302
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0008
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6618
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0002
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0512
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0031
Safety Score0.1409

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-2.55%-1.82%-1.09%-0.36%0.36%1.09%1.82%2.55%3.27%4.00%
Revenue1,144.801,123.971,111.701,107.651,111.671,123.791,144.221,173.341,211.741,260.21
EBITDA345.66339.37335.66334.44335.65339.31345.48354.27365.87380.50
D&A-26.27-25.80-25.51-25.42-25.51-25.79-26.26-26.93-27.81-28.92
EBIT319.38313.57310.15309.02310.14313.52319.22327.35338.06351.58
Pro forma Taxes-77.32-75.92-75.09-74.81-75.09-75.90-77.28-79.25-81.84-85.12
NOPAT242.06237.66235.06234.20235.05237.62241.94248.09256.21266.46
Capital Expenditures-6.16-6.05-5.98-5.96-5.98-6.04-6.15-6.31-6.52-6.78
NWC Investment1.861.290.760.25-0.25-0.75-1.27-1.81-2.38-3.01
(+) D&A26.2725.8025.5125.4225.5125.7926.2626.9327.8128.92
Free Cash Flow264.03258.70255.36253.92254.34256.61260.77266.90275.12285.60
Diluted Shares Outstanding62,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.0062,408,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.02%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF261.74248.54224.87204.96188.18174.03162.10152.08143.69136.72
Raw: 3,668.59
2,598.63
Raw: 4,119.48
1,888.01

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,726.923,784.90
(-) Net Debt3,029.173,029.17
Equity Value697.75755.73
(/) Shares Out62.4162.41
Fair Value$11.18$12.11
(-) Safety Margin85.91%85.91%
Buy Price$1.58$1.71
Current Price$20.01$20.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.13%-91.47%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.52%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF261.50247.50221.90200.41182.33167.09154.22143.37134.23126.56
Raw: 3,011.89
2,057.75
Raw: 3,382.06
1,428.36

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,171.393,267.47
(-) Net Debt3,029.173,029.17
Equity Value142.21238.30
(/) Shares Out62.4162.41
Fair Value$2.28$3.82
(-) Safety Margin85.91%85.91%
Buy Price$0.32$0.54
Current Price$20.01$20.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-98.40%-97.31%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.52%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF261.98249.60227.92209.65194.27181.32170.46161.40153.90147.79
Raw: 4,678.78
3,437.28
Raw: 5,253.82
2,614.99

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,580.704,573.28
(-) Net Debt3,029.173,029.17
Equity Value1,551.521,544.11
(/) Shares Out62.4162.41
Fair Value$24.86$24.74
(-) Safety Margin85.91%85.91%
Buy Price$3.50$3.49
Current Price$20.01$20.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.49%-82.58%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$20.01
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH133.80%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,033.257,091.7716,580.6638,765.7990,634.91211,905.57495,437.901,158,340.112,708,213.876,331,838.42
Constant Implied Growth133.80%133.80%133.80%133.80%133.80%133.80%133.80%133.80%133.80%133.80%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.300.711.663.889.0621.1949.54115.83270.82633.18
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.280.571.232.635.6312.0725.8755.45118.83254.66

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$15.00-15.97%$-52.90-452.65%
20182018-12-31$15.00-5.06%$-9.37-162.44%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$13.33
Median
$11.96
10th Percentile
$3.66
90th Percentile
$24.92

Fair Value Distribution

$-6.89 - $-3.60
2
$-3.60 - $-0.32
18
$-0.32 - $2.96
60
$2.96 - $6.24
134
$6.24 - $9.53
151
$9.53 - $12.81
169
$12.81 - $16.09
145
$16.09 - $19.37
109
$19.37 - $22.65
78
$22.65 - $25.94
50
$25.94 - $29.22
35
$29.22 - $32.50
15
$32.50 - $35.78
11
$35.78 - $39.06
10
$39.06 - $42.35
6
$42.35 - $45.63
1
$45.63 - $48.91
3
$48.91 - $52.19
1
$52.19 - $55.48
0
$55.48 - $58.76
2