Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $84.47 |
| 5Y Range | 41.39 – 60.70 |
| 5Y Selected | 51.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.28% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.77% |
| 10Y Range | 44.95 – 64.51 |
| 10Y Selected | 54.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.28% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $25.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.73% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6680 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9294 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7571 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6139 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8306 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9204 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3874 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5028 |
| Safety Score | 0.4672 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.74% | 5.55% | 5.36% | 5.16% | 4.97% | 4.77% | 4.58% | 4.39% | 4.19% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,234.69 | 2,358.71 | 2,485.04 | 2,613.32 | 2,743.16 | 2,874.14 | 3,005.81 | 3,137.69 | 3,269.27 | 3,400.05 |
| EBITDA | 695.87 | 734.49 | 773.83 | 813.77 | 854.21 | 894.99 | 935.99 | 977.06 | 1,018.04 | 1,058.76 |
| D&A | -73.75 | -77.84 | -82.01 | -86.24 | -90.53 | -94.85 | -99.20 | -103.55 | -107.89 | -112.21 |
| EBIT | 622.12 | 656.65 | 691.82 | 727.53 | 763.68 | 800.14 | 836.80 | 873.51 | 910.14 | 946.55 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -118.51 | -125.09 | -131.79 | -138.59 | -145.48 | -152.42 | -159.41 | -166.40 | -173.38 | -180.31 |
| NOPAT | 503.61 | 531.56 | 560.03 | 588.94 | 618.20 | 647.72 | 677.39 | 707.11 | 736.77 | 766.24 |
| Capital Expenditures | -128.28 | -135.40 | -142.65 | -150.02 | -157.47 | -164.99 | -172.55 | -180.12 | -187.67 | -195.18 |
| NWC Investment | -26.15 | -26.72 | -27.22 | -27.64 | -27.98 | -28.22 | -28.37 | -28.42 | -28.35 | -28.18 |
| (+) D&A | 73.75 | 77.84 | 82.01 | 86.24 | 90.53 | 94.85 | 99.20 | 103.55 | 107.89 | 112.21 |
| Free Cash Flow | 422.92 | 447.28 | 472.16 | 497.52 | 523.28 | 549.36 | 575.67 | 602.12 | 628.63 | 655.09 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 | 170,335,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/26/25 | 12/28/25 | 12/28/26 | 12/28/27 | 12/28/28 | 12/28/29 | 12/28/30 | 12/28/31 | 12/28/32 | 12/28/33 |
| Period End | 12/27/25 | 12/27/26 | 12/27/27 | 12/27/28 | 12/27/29 | 12/27/30 | 12/27/31 | 12/27/32 | 12/27/33 | 12/27/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/11/25 | 6/28/26 | 6/28/27 | 6/27/28 | 6/28/29 | 6/28/30 | 6/28/31 | 6/27/32 | 6/28/33 | 6/28/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 3.45 | 4.45 | 5.45 | 6.45 | 7.45 | 8.45 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 419.26 | 430.09 | 416.16 | 401.94 | 387.50 | 372.88 | 358.15 | 343.37 | 328.59 | 313.87 | Raw: 8,083.12 5,730.63 |
Raw: 10,119.11 4,641.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,785.57 | 8,413.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | -537.88 | -537.88 |
| Equity Value | 8,323.46 | 8,951.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 170.34 | 170.34 |
| Fair Value | $48.87 | $52.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.28% | 53.28% |
| Buy Price | $22.83 | $24.55 |
| Current Price | $84.47 | $84.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.97% | -70.93% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 418.87 | 428.33 | 410.69 | 393.06 | 375.49 | 358.04 | 340.78 | 323.75 | 307.00 | 290.58 | Raw: 6,560.20 4,486.30 |
Raw: 8,212.60 3,471.80 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,512.74 | 7,118.38 |
| (-) Net Debt | -537.88 | -537.88 |
| Equity Value | 7,050.62 | 7,656.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 170.34 | 170.34 |
| Fair Value | $41.39 | $44.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.28% | 53.28% |
| Buy Price | $19.34 | $21.00 |
| Current Price | $84.47 | $84.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.10% | -75.14% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 419.64 | 431.87 | 421.75 | 411.11 | 400.00 | 388.48 | 376.59 | 364.39 | 351.93 | 339.26 | Raw: 10,496.05 7,716.96 |
Raw: 13,139.82 6,545.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,801.34 | 10,450.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | -537.88 | -537.88 |
| Equity Value | 10,339.23 | 10,988.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 170.34 | 170.34 |
| Fair Value | $60.70 | $64.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.28% | 53.28% |
| Buy Price | $28.36 | $30.14 |
| Current Price | $84.47 | $84.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.43% | -64.32% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,473.61 | 13,667.32 | 34,126.59 | 85,212.34 | 212,770.80 | 531,277.67 | 1,326,572.85 | 3,312,383.75 | 8,270,850.79 | 20,651,886.35 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% | 149.69% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.55 | 1.37 | 3.41 | 8.52 | 21.28 | 53.13 | 132.66 | 331.24 | 827.09 | 2,065.19 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.51 | 1.10 | 2.53 | 5.78 | 13.24 | 30.30 | 69.34 | 158.70 | 363.23 | 831.33 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $52.00 | 5.84% | $33.99 | -34.64% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $41.85 | 8.06% | $39.13 | -6.50% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $45.22 | 6.70% | $34.91 | -22.80% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $27.70 | 5.74% | $24.71 | -10.80% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $24.02 | 5.43% | $14.25 | -40.66% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $26.73 | 7.82% | $21.32 | -20.22% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $26.04 | 9.22% | $24.60 | -5.52% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $17.16 | 9.21% | $18.20 | 6.04% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $13.63 | 9.25% | $16.97 | 24.48% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $13.15 | 10.08% | $10.35 | -21.29% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.52 | 11.87% | $18.17 | 90.88% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $7.91 | 15.50% | $20.29 | 156.52% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $12.42 | 8.51% | $14.97 | 20.56% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $13.21 | 1.83% | $9.71 | -26.49% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $12.16 | -2.40% | $8.78 | -27.76% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $12.45 | -0.72% | $7.70 | -38.13% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $8.91 | 10.74% | $11.31 | 26.98% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $6.37 | 13.55% | $10.84 | 70.11% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $5.79 | 14.58% | $7.95 | 37.25% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $4.09 | 11.44% | $7.67 | 87.64% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $3.54 | 5.04% | $4.04 | 14.20% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $2.91 | 2.95% | $4.25 | 46.02% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $2.46 | 4.56% | $1.16 | -52.82% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $1.61 | 9.56% | $1.56 | -3.02% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $1.34 | 12.82% | $3.07 | 129.01% |
| $38.02 - $40.78 | 13 |
| $40.78 - $43.54 | 53 |
| $43.54 - $46.31 | 104 |
| $46.31 - $49.07 | 124 |
| $49.07 - $51.83 | 161 |
| $51.83 - $54.59 | 137 |
| $54.59 - $57.35 | 130 |
| $57.35 - $60.11 | 79 |
| $60.11 - $62.87 | 57 |
| $62.87 - $65.63 | 44 |
| $65.63 - $68.39 | 36 |
| $68.39 - $71.16 | 22 |
| $71.16 - $73.92 | 15 |
| $73.92 - $76.68 | 13 |
| $76.68 - $79.44 | 2 |
| $79.44 - $82.20 | 4 |
| $82.20 - $84.96 | 2 |
| $84.96 - $87.72 | 3 |
| $87.72 - $90.48 | 0 |
| $90.48 - $93.24 | 1 |