Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $56.00 |
| 5Y Range | 95.52 – 141.79 |
| 5Y Selected | 118.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.75% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $20.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.45% |
| 10Y Range | 101.56 – 146.76 |
| 10Y Selected | 124.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.75% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $21.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.75% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9522 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9649 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4893 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1133 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4456 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0209 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2637 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2635 |
| Safety Score | 0.1725 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.77% | 2.91% | 3.04% | 3.18% | 3.32% | 3.45% | 3.59% | 3.73% | 3.86% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 20,217.28 | 20,805.26 | 21,438.73 | 22,120.74 | 22,854.64 | 23,644.07 | 24,493.04 | 25,405.92 | 26,387.48 | 27,442.98 |
| EBITDA | 3,352.08 | 3,449.57 | 3,554.60 | 3,667.68 | 3,789.36 | 3,920.25 | 4,061.01 | 4,212.37 | 4,375.11 | 4,550.12 |
| D&A | -693.47 | -713.64 | -735.37 | -758.77 | -783.94 | -811.02 | -840.14 | -871.45 | -905.12 | -941.32 |
| EBIT | 2,658.60 | 2,735.92 | 2,819.23 | 2,908.91 | 3,005.42 | 3,109.23 | 3,220.87 | 3,340.92 | 3,469.99 | 3,608.79 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -94.48 | -97.23 | -100.19 | -103.37 | -106.80 | -110.49 | -114.46 | -118.73 | -123.31 | -128.24 |
| NOPAT | 2,564.12 | 2,638.70 | 2,719.04 | 2,805.54 | 2,898.62 | 2,998.74 | 3,106.41 | 3,222.19 | 3,346.68 | 3,480.55 |
| Capital Expenditures | -359.26 | -369.71 | -380.97 | -393.09 | -406.13 | -420.16 | -435.24 | -451.47 | -468.91 | -487.66 |
| NWC Investment | 59.51 | 64.17 | 69.14 | 74.44 | 80.10 | 86.16 | 92.66 | 99.63 | 107.13 | 115.20 |
| (+) D&A | 693.47 | 713.64 | 735.37 | 758.77 | 783.94 | 811.02 | 840.14 | 871.45 | 905.12 | 941.32 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,957.85 | 3,046.80 | 3,142.58 | 3,245.65 | 3,356.53 | 3,475.76 | 3,603.97 | 3,741.81 | 3,890.02 | 4,049.41 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 | 458,250,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,932.20 | 2,927.17 | 2,767.41 | 2,619.83 | 2,483.38 | 2,357.15 | 2,240.27 | 2,131.99 | 2,031.60 | 1,938.48 | Raw: 51,996.44 36,831.48 |
Raw: 62,729.99 28,749.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 50,561.48 | 53,179.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1,409.50 | -1,409.50 |
| Equity Value | 51,970.98 | 54,588.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 458.25 | 458.25 |
| Fair Value | $113.41 | $119.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.75% | 82.75% |
| Buy Price | $19.56 | $20.55 |
| Current Price | $56.00 | $56.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.07% | -63.31% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,929.53 | 2,914.91 | 2,730.79 | 2,561.68 | 2,406.21 | 2,263.15 | 2,131.40 | 2,009.96 | 1,897.92 | 1,794.48 | Raw: 42,179.13 28,817.15 |
Raw: 50,886.10 21,490.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,360.27 | 45,130.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1,409.50 | -1,409.50 |
| Equity Value | 43,769.77 | 46,540.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 458.25 | 458.25 |
| Fair Value | $95.52 | $101.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.75% | 82.75% |
| Buy Price | $16.48 | $17.52 |
| Current Price | $56.00 | $56.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.58% | -68.72% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,934.91 | 2,939.60 | 2,804.87 | 2,679.85 | 2,563.78 | 2,455.97 | 2,355.79 | 2,262.66 | 2,176.07 | 2,095.53 | Raw: 67,571.10 49,641.29 |
Raw: 81,519.69 40,574.79 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 63,564.30 | 65,843.82 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1,409.50 | -1,409.50 |
| Equity Value | 64,973.80 | 67,253.32 |
| (/) Shares Out | 458.25 | 458.25 |
| Fair Value | $141.79 | $146.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.75% | 82.75% |
| Buy Price | $24.46 | $25.32 |
| Current Price | $56.00 | $56.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.32% | -54.79% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 42,757.02 | 90,266.27 | 190,565.19 | 402,310.74 | 849,336.32 | 1,793,072.15 | 3,785,435.34 | 7,991,602.96 | 16,871,432.79 | 35,618,041.30 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% | 111.11% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 4.28 | 9.03 | 19.06 | 40.23 | 84.93 | 179.31 | 378.54 | 799.16 | 1,687.14 | 3,561.80 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.98 | 7.29 | 14.10 | 27.28 | 52.80 | 102.16 | 197.70 | 382.56 | 740.30 | 1,432.54 |
| $86.27 - $93.94 | 26 |
| $93.94 - $101.60 | 79 |
| $101.60 - $109.27 | 157 |
| $109.27 - $116.93 | 176 |
| $116.93 - $124.60 | 173 |
| $124.60 - $132.26 | 133 |
| $132.26 - $139.92 | 87 |
| $139.92 - $147.59 | 61 |
| $147.59 - $155.25 | 44 |
| $155.25 - $162.92 | 27 |
| $162.92 - $170.58 | 16 |
| $170.58 - $178.25 | 7 |
| $178.25 - $185.91 | 4 |
| $185.91 - $193.57 | 2 |
| $193.57 - $201.24 | 2 |
| $201.24 - $208.90 | 3 |
| $208.90 - $216.57 | 1 |
| $216.57 - $224.23 | 0 |
| $224.23 - $231.90 | 1 |
| $231.90 - $239.56 | 1 |