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General Dynamics Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$340.60
5Y Range141.82 – 229.03
5Y Selected185.42
(-) Safety Margin64.55%
5Y Buy Price$65.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-80.70%
10Y Range155.81 – 242.68
10Y Selected199.24
(-) Safety Margin64.55%
10Y Buy Price$70.63
Upside (to Buy Price)-79.26%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8414
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8668
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7327
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5756
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6942
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6063
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2332
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5271
Safety Score0.3545

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth4.46%4.41%4.36%4.31%4.25%4.20%4.15%4.10%4.05%4.00%
Revenue49,842.9952,039.4654,306.2656,644.1859,053.9561,536.2264,091.5366,720.3769,423.1172,200.03
EBITDA5,425.655,664.745,911.496,165.996,428.306,698.516,976.677,262.837,557.047,859.32
D&A-980.50-1,023.71-1,068.30-1,114.30-1,161.70-1,210.53-1,260.80-1,312.51-1,365.68-1,420.31
EBIT4,445.144,641.034,843.195,051.695,266.605,487.985,715.875,950.326,191.356,439.01
Pro forma Taxes-883.31-922.23-962.41-1,003.84-1,046.54-1,090.53-1,135.82-1,182.41-1,230.30-1,279.52
NOPAT3,561.833,718.803,880.784,047.854,220.064,397.454,580.054,767.914,961.055,159.49
Capital Expenditures-1,044.90-1,090.94-1,138.46-1,187.47-1,237.99-1,290.03-1,343.60-1,398.71-1,455.37-1,513.58
NWC Investment-282.84-292.08-301.43-310.89-320.44-330.08-339.79-349.57-359.40-369.26
(+) D&A980.501,023.711,068.301,114.301,161.701,210.531,260.801,312.511,365.681,420.31
Free Cash Flow3,214.613,359.493,509.203,663.793,823.333,987.874,157.464,332.144,511.974,696.96
Diluted Shares Outstanding272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00272,848,500.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/28/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/14/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.43%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF3,186.743,230.403,092.962,957.342,828.762,704.442,584.332,468.352,356.422,248.47
Raw: 58,763.70
41,625.04
Raw: 72,191.16
33,086.10

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value56,921.2360,744.30
(-) Net Debt9,003.509,003.50
Equity Value47,917.7351,740.80
(/) Shares Out272.85272.85
Fair Value$175.62$189.63
(-) Safety Margin64.55%64.55%
Buy Price$62.26$67.22
Current Price$340.60$340.60
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.72%-80.26%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.93%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF3,183.833,217.163,052.302,891.702,740.852,596.602,458.742,327.062,201.362,081.43
Raw: 47,733.50
32,611.95
Raw: 58,640.57
24,765.92

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value47,697.7951,516.95
(-) Net Debt9,003.509,003.50
Equity Value38,694.2942,513.45
(/) Shares Out272.85272.85
Fair Value$141.82$155.81
(-) Safety Margin64.55%64.55%
Buy Price$50.27$55.24
Current Price$340.60$340.60
Upside (to Buy Price)-85.24%-83.78%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.93%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF3,189.673,243.813,134.533,025.102,920.332,817.822,717.592,619.642,523.982,430.63
Raw: 76,201.11
55,981.35
Raw: 93,613.00
46,594.00

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value71,494.7975,217.10
(-) Net Debt9,003.509,003.50
Equity Value62,491.2966,213.60
(/) Shares Out272.85272.85
Fair Value$229.03$242.68
(-) Safety Margin64.55%64.55%
Buy Price$81.19$86.03
Current Price$340.60$340.60
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.16%-74.74%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$340.60
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH122.01%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue114,354.76253,878.17563,633.101,251,317.772,778,041.536,167,509.9313,692,444.2330,398,496.4967,487,482.37149,828,471.91
Constant Implied Growth122.01%122.01%122.01%122.01%122.01%122.01%122.01%122.01%122.01%122.01%
Implied Free Cash Flow11.4425.3956.36125.13277.80616.751,369.243,039.856,748.7514,982.85
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF10.6520.4941.7084.86172.69351.41715.101,455.202,961.266,026.02

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$176.356.47%$94.36-46.50%
20182018-12-31$157.213.31%$106.03-32.56%
20172017-12-31$203.453.15%$195.99-3.67%
20162016-12-31$172.666.39%$112.59-34.79%
20152015-12-31$137.368.29%$127.32-7.31%
20142014-12-31$137.628.45%$208.6451.61%
20132013-12-31$95.556.18%$153.6260.78%
20122012-12-31$69.274.06%$112.2562.05%
20112011-12-31$66.413.80%$132.1699.01%
20102010-12-31$70.962.41%$113.2759.63%
20092009-12-31$68.171.38%$97.6843.29%
20082008-12-31$57.591.53%$100.4174.35%
20072007-12-31$88.994.23%$109.9823.59%
20062006-12-31$74.357.15%$88.3018.76%
20052005-12-31$57.039.21%$96.5469.27%
20042004-12-31$52.3011.41%$88.4269.07%
20032003-12-31$45.2011.23%$84.0886.01%
20022002-12-31$39.6911.94%$50.7227.79%
20012001-12-31$39.8213.37%$45.5514.40%
20002000-12-31$39.0014.44%$53.4537.06%
19991999-12-31$26.3815.52%$-21.48-181.41%
19981998-12-31$29.5015.09%$-3.59-112.18%
19971997-12-31$21.6915.24%$-85.95-496.26%
19961996-12-31$17.698.05%$82.55366.67%
19951995-12-31$14.7811.48%$19.4831.81%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$195.23
Median
$190.07
10th Percentile
$155.96
90th Percentile
$242.40

Fair Value Distribution

$121.63 - $138.15
19
$138.15 - $154.68
77
$154.68 - $171.21
173
$171.21 - $187.74
198
$187.74 - $204.26
199
$204.26 - $220.79
137
$220.79 - $237.32
84
$237.32 - $253.85
47
$253.85 - $270.37
29
$270.37 - $286.90
15
$286.90 - $303.43
7
$303.43 - $319.95
7
$319.95 - $336.48
4
$336.48 - $353.01
1
$353.01 - $369.54
1
$369.54 - $386.06
1
$386.06 - $402.59
0
$402.59 - $419.12
0
$419.12 - $435.65
0
$435.65 - $452.17
1