| Current Price | $340.60 |
| 5Y Range | 141.82 – 229.03 |
| 5Y Selected | 185.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.55% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $65.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.70% |
| 10Y Range | 155.81 – 242.68 |
| 10Y Selected | 199.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.55% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $70.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.26% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8414 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8668 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7327 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5756 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6942 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6063 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2332 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5271 |
| Safety Score | 0.3545 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.46% | 4.41% | 4.36% | 4.31% | 4.25% | 4.20% | 4.15% | 4.10% | 4.05% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 49,842.99 | 52,039.46 | 54,306.26 | 56,644.18 | 59,053.95 | 61,536.22 | 64,091.53 | 66,720.37 | 69,423.11 | 72,200.03 |
| EBITDA | 5,425.65 | 5,664.74 | 5,911.49 | 6,165.99 | 6,428.30 | 6,698.51 | 6,976.67 | 7,262.83 | 7,557.04 | 7,859.32 |
| D&A | -980.50 | -1,023.71 | -1,068.30 | -1,114.30 | -1,161.70 | -1,210.53 | -1,260.80 | -1,312.51 | -1,365.68 | -1,420.31 |
| EBIT | 4,445.14 | 4,641.03 | 4,843.19 | 5,051.69 | 5,266.60 | 5,487.98 | 5,715.87 | 5,950.32 | 6,191.35 | 6,439.01 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -883.31 | -922.23 | -962.41 | -1,003.84 | -1,046.54 | -1,090.53 | -1,135.82 | -1,182.41 | -1,230.30 | -1,279.52 |
| NOPAT | 3,561.83 | 3,718.80 | 3,880.78 | 4,047.85 | 4,220.06 | 4,397.45 | 4,580.05 | 4,767.91 | 4,961.05 | 5,159.49 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,044.90 | -1,090.94 | -1,138.46 | -1,187.47 | -1,237.99 | -1,290.03 | -1,343.60 | -1,398.71 | -1,455.37 | -1,513.58 |
| NWC Investment | -282.84 | -292.08 | -301.43 | -310.89 | -320.44 | -330.08 | -339.79 | -349.57 | -359.40 | -369.26 |
| (+) D&A | 980.50 | 1,023.71 | 1,068.30 | 1,114.30 | 1,161.70 | 1,210.53 | 1,260.80 | 1,312.51 | 1,365.68 | 1,420.31 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,214.61 | 3,359.49 | 3,509.20 | 3,663.79 | 3,823.33 | 3,987.87 | 4,157.46 | 4,332.14 | 4,511.97 | 4,696.96 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 | 272,848,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/28/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/14/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,186.74 | 3,230.40 | 3,092.96 | 2,957.34 | 2,828.76 | 2,704.44 | 2,584.33 | 2,468.35 | 2,356.42 | 2,248.47 | Raw: 58,763.70 41,625.04 |
Raw: 72,191.16 33,086.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 56,921.23 | 60,744.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,003.50 | 9,003.50 |
| Equity Value | 47,917.73 | 51,740.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 272.85 | 272.85 |
| Fair Value | $175.62 | $189.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.55% | 64.55% |
| Buy Price | $62.26 | $67.22 |
| Current Price | $340.60 | $340.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.72% | -80.26% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,183.83 | 3,217.16 | 3,052.30 | 2,891.70 | 2,740.85 | 2,596.60 | 2,458.74 | 2,327.06 | 2,201.36 | 2,081.43 | Raw: 47,733.50 32,611.95 |
Raw: 58,640.57 24,765.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 47,697.79 | 51,516.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,003.50 | 9,003.50 |
| Equity Value | 38,694.29 | 42,513.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 272.85 | 272.85 |
| Fair Value | $141.82 | $155.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.55% | 64.55% |
| Buy Price | $50.27 | $55.24 |
| Current Price | $340.60 | $340.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.24% | -83.78% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,189.67 | 3,243.81 | 3,134.53 | 3,025.10 | 2,920.33 | 2,817.82 | 2,717.59 | 2,619.64 | 2,523.98 | 2,430.63 | Raw: 76,201.11 55,981.35 |
Raw: 93,613.00 46,594.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 71,494.79 | 75,217.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,003.50 | 9,003.50 |
| Equity Value | 62,491.29 | 66,213.60 |
| (/) Shares Out | 272.85 | 272.85 |
| Fair Value | $229.03 | $242.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.55% | 64.55% |
| Buy Price | $81.19 | $86.03 |
| Current Price | $340.60 | $340.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.16% | -74.74% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 114,354.76 | 253,878.17 | 563,633.10 | 1,251,317.77 | 2,778,041.53 | 6,167,509.93 | 13,692,444.23 | 30,398,496.49 | 67,487,482.37 | 149,828,471.91 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% | 122.01% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 11.44 | 25.39 | 56.36 | 125.13 | 277.80 | 616.75 | 1,369.24 | 3,039.85 | 6,748.75 | 14,982.85 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 10.65 | 20.49 | 41.70 | 84.86 | 172.69 | 351.41 | 715.10 | 1,455.20 | 2,961.26 | 6,026.02 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $176.35 | 6.47% | $94.36 | -46.50% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $157.21 | 3.31% | $106.03 | -32.56% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $203.45 | 3.15% | $195.99 | -3.67% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $172.66 | 6.39% | $112.59 | -34.79% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $137.36 | 8.29% | $127.32 | -7.31% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $137.62 | 8.45% | $208.64 | 51.61% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $95.55 | 6.18% | $153.62 | 60.78% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $69.27 | 4.06% | $112.25 | 62.05% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $66.41 | 3.80% | $132.16 | 99.01% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $70.96 | 2.41% | $113.27 | 59.63% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $68.17 | 1.38% | $97.68 | 43.29% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $57.59 | 1.53% | $100.41 | 74.35% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $88.99 | 4.23% | $109.98 | 23.59% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $74.35 | 7.15% | $88.30 | 18.76% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $57.03 | 9.21% | $96.54 | 69.27% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $52.30 | 11.41% | $88.42 | 69.07% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $45.20 | 11.23% | $84.08 | 86.01% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $39.69 | 11.94% | $50.72 | 27.79% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $39.82 | 13.37% | $45.55 | 14.40% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $39.00 | 14.44% | $53.45 | 37.06% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $26.38 | 15.52% | $-21.48 | -181.41% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $29.50 | 15.09% | $-3.59 | -112.18% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $21.69 | 15.24% | $-85.95 | -496.26% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $17.69 | 8.05% | $82.55 | 366.67% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $14.78 | 11.48% | $19.48 | 31.81% |
| $121.63 - $138.15 | 19 |
| $138.15 - $154.68 | 77 |
| $154.68 - $171.21 | 173 |
| $171.21 - $187.74 | 198 |
| $187.74 - $204.26 | 199 |
| $204.26 - $220.79 | 137 |
| $220.79 - $237.32 | 84 |
| $237.32 - $253.85 | 47 |
| $253.85 - $270.37 | 29 |
| $270.37 - $286.90 | 15 |
| $286.90 - $303.43 | 7 |
| $303.43 - $319.95 | 7 |
| $319.95 - $336.48 | 4 |
| $336.48 - $353.01 | 1 |
| $353.01 - $369.54 | 1 |
| $369.54 - $386.06 | 1 |
| $386.06 - $402.59 | 0 |
| $402.59 - $419.12 | 0 |
| $419.12 - $435.65 | 0 |
| $435.65 - $452.17 | 1 |