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Gibus S.p.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Manufacturing - MiscellaneousSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$9.95
5Y Range54.21 – 164.81
5Y Selected109.51
(-) Safety Margin73.95%
5Y Buy Price$33.01
Upside (to Buy Price)231.72%
10Y Range75.96 – 225.80
10Y Selected150.88
(-) Safety Margin73.95%
10Y Buy Price$45.48
Upside (to Buy Price)357.04%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9450
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9240
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0889
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.3109
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5037
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6967
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0139
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1850
Safety Score0.3014

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033
% Growth21.35%19.43%17.50%15.57%13.64%11.71%9.78%7.86%5.93%4.00%
Revenue110.82132.35155.51179.72204.24228.16250.49270.17286.18297.63
EBITDA18.4922.0825.9529.9934.0838.0741.7945.0847.7549.66
D&A-4.36-5.21-6.12-7.07-8.04-8.98-9.86-10.63-11.26-11.71
EBIT14.1316.8719.8322.9126.0429.0931.9434.4436.4937.95
Pro forma Taxes-3.92-4.68-5.50-6.35-7.22-8.06-8.85-9.55-10.11-10.52
NOPAT10.2112.2014.3316.5618.8221.0323.0824.9026.3727.43
Capital Expenditures-5.83-6.97-8.19-9.46-10.75-12.01-13.19-14.22-15.07-15.67
NWC Investment-2.11-2.33-2.51-2.62-2.65-2.59-2.41-2.13-1.73-1.24
(+) D&A4.365.216.127.078.048.989.8610.6311.2611.71
Free Cash Flow6.638.119.7611.5513.4515.4017.3419.1720.8322.23
Diluted Shares Outstanding4,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.754,983,063.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-24Dec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33
Period Start6/30/241/1/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/33
Period End12/31/2412/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/33
Mid-Point9/30/247/2/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/33
Time (t)0.100.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.08%Terminal Growth: 3.08%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.970.920.860.820.770.720.680.64
PV UFCF6.598.069.5010.6011.6312.5613.3213.8914.2314.31
Raw: 461.72
387.70
Raw: 762.99
476.92

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value434.09591.63
(-) Net Debt26.0526.05
Equity Value408.03565.58
(/) Shares Out4.984.98
Fair Value$81.88$113.50
(-) Safety Margin73.95%73.95%
Buy Price$21.33$29.57
Current Price$9.95$9.95
Upside (to Buy Price)114.38%197.15%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.08%Terminal Growth: 2.58%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.970.910.850.790.740.690.640.60
PV UFCF6.588.059.4610.4611.3712.1612.7813.2013.3913.34
Raw: 306.43
250.26
Raw: 506.38
293.75

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value296.19404.54
(-) Net Debt26.0526.05
Equity Value270.13378.49
(/) Shares Out4.984.98
Fair Value$54.21$75.96
(-) Safety Margin73.95%73.95%
Buy Price$14.12$19.79
Current Price$9.95$9.95
Upside (to Buy Price)41.93%98.86%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.08%Terminal Growth: 3.58%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor1.001.000.980.930.890.840.800.760.730.69
PV UFCF6.608.079.5410.7511.9112.9813.9014.6315.1315.36
Raw: 926.89
800.42
Raw: 1,531.69
1,032.39

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value847.291,151.25
(-) Net Debt26.0526.05
Equity Value821.241,125.19
(/) Shares Out4.984.98
Fair Value$164.81$225.80
(-) Safety Margin73.95%73.95%
Buy Price$42.93$58.82
Current Price$9.95$9.95
Upside (to Buy Price)331.48%491.17%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$9.95
WACC Used6.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH74.46%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue309.45539.86941.821,643.072,866.455,000.728,724.0915,219.7726,551.9146,321.61
Constant Implied Growth74.46%74.46%74.46%74.46%74.46%74.46%74.46%74.46%74.46%74.46%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.030.050.090.160.290.500.871.522.664.63
Discount Factor0.990.860.820.770.720.680.640.610.570.54
Present Value of Implied FCF0.030.050.080.130.210.340.560.921.522.50

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20182018-12-31$6.0021.87%$-2.71-145.15%
20172017-12-31$6.0022.90%$23.65294.09%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$147.85
Median
$113.73
10th Percentile
$76.39
90th Percentile
$229.25

Fair Value Distribution

$19.58 - $246.26
918
$246.26 - $472.93
65
$472.93 - $699.60
9
$699.60 - $926.28
4
$926.28 - $1,152.95
1
$1,152.95 - $1,379.62
1
$1,379.62 - $1,606.30
0
$1,606.30 - $1,832.97
0
$1,832.97 - $2,059.64
0
$2,059.64 - $2,286.32
1
$2,286.32 - $2,512.99
0
$2,512.99 - $2,739.66
0
$2,739.66 - $2,966.34
0
$2,966.34 - $3,193.01
0
$3,193.01 - $3,419.68
0
$3,419.68 - $3,646.36
0
$3,646.36 - $3,873.03
0
$3,873.03 - $4,099.70
0
$4,099.70 - $4,326.38
0
$4,326.38 - $4,553.05
1