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Gurktaler AG

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$15.50
5Y Range-20.23 – -8.02
5Y Selected-14.13
(-) Safety Margin85.39%
5Y Buy Price$-2.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-116.72%
10Y Range-14.06 – -6.19
10Y Selected-10.12
(-) Safety Margin85.39%
10Y Buy Price$-1.86
Upside (to Buy Price)-111.98%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6906
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3976
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.3093
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0112
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0039
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0010
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0147
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2781
Safety Score0.1835

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth24.60%22.31%20.02%17.73%15.44%13.15%10.87%8.58%6.29%4.00%
Revenue4.855.937.128.399.6810.9512.1413.1914.0214.58
EBITDA-0.14-0.17-0.20-0.24-0.27-0.31-0.34-0.37-0.39-0.41
D&A-0.67-0.82-0.99-1.16-1.34-1.52-1.68-1.83-1.94-2.02
EBIT-0.81-0.99-1.19-1.40-1.61-1.82-2.02-2.20-2.33-2.43
Pro forma Taxes0.050.060.080.090.110.120.130.140.150.16
NOPAT-0.76-0.92-1.11-1.31-1.51-1.71-1.89-2.05-2.18-2.27
Capital Expenditures-0.06-0.08-0.09-0.11-0.13-0.14-0.16-0.17-0.18-0.19
NWC Investment-0.47-0.53-0.58-0.62-0.64-0.63-0.59-0.51-0.41-0.28
(+) D&A0.670.820.991.161.341.521.681.831.942.02
Free Cash Flow-0.62-0.71-0.80-0.88-0.93-0.96-0.95-0.91-0.83-0.72
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.002,008,459.00

Discounting Periods

MetricMar-26Mar-27Mar-28Mar-29Mar-30Mar-31Mar-32Mar-33Mar-34Mar-35
Period Start3/31/254/1/264/1/274/1/284/1/294/1/304/1/314/1/324/1/334/1/34
Period End3/31/263/31/273/31/283/31/293/31/303/31/313/31/323/31/333/31/343/31/35
Mid-Point9/29/259/30/269/30/279/30/289/30/299/30/309/30/319/30/329/30/339/30/34
Time (t)0.100.701.712.713.714.715.716.717.718.71
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.26%Terminal Growth: 2.75%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.900.850.800.750.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-0.61-0.68-0.72-0.74-0.74-0.72-0.67-0.61-0.52-0.42
Raw: -27.24
-21.10
Raw: -21.01
-12.02

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-24.60-18.46
(-) Net Debt-1.48-1.48
Equity Value-23.13-16.99
(/) Shares Out2.012.01
Fair Value$-11.52$-8.46
(-) Safety Margin85.39%85.39%
Buy Price$-1.68$-1.24
Current Price$15.50$15.50
Upside (to Buy Price)-110.85%-107.97%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.26%Terminal Growth: 2.25%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.890.830.770.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF-0.61-0.68-0.71-0.72-0.72-0.69-0.64-0.57-0.49-0.39
Raw: -18.99
-14.14
Raw: -14.65
-7.68

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-17.58-13.90
(-) Net Debt-1.48-1.48
Equity Value-16.11-12.42
(/) Shares Out2.012.01
Fair Value$-8.02$-6.19
(-) Safety Margin85.39%85.39%
Buy Price$-1.17$-0.90
Current Price$15.50$15.50
Upside (to Buy Price)-107.56%-105.83%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.26%Terminal Growth: 3.25%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.920.870.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF-0.61-0.69-0.73-0.76-0.77-0.75-0.71-0.65-0.56-0.46
Raw: -47.83
-38.55
Raw: -36.89
-23.01

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-42.11-29.71
(-) Net Debt-1.48-1.48
Equity Value-40.64-28.24
(/) Shares Out2.012.01
Fair Value$-20.23$-14.06
(-) Safety Margin85.39%85.39%
Buy Price$-2.96$-2.05
Current Price$15.50$15.50
Upside (to Buy Price)-119.07%-113.25%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$15.50
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH118.16%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue16.8336.7280.10174.75381.25831.741,814.563,958.718,636.4918,841.71
Constant Implied Growth118.16%118.16%118.16%118.16%118.16%118.16%118.16%118.16%118.16%118.16%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.000.000.010.020.040.080.180.400.861.88
Discount Factor0.990.900.850.800.750.710.670.630.590.55
Present Value of Implied FCF0.000.000.010.010.030.060.120.250.511.05

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-03-31$8.9056.48%$10.7620.91%
20192019-03-31$8.7023.34%$6.81-21.67%
20182018-03-31$6.45-20.95%$0.40-93.78%
20172017-03-31$6.10-12.93%$-0.68-111.20%
20162016-03-31$5.442.13%$-1.33-124.40%
20152015-03-31$5.505.17%$-13.12-338.63%
20142014-03-31$4.853.01%$11.50137.21%
20132013-03-31$5.20-0.44%$-73.74-1,518.09%
20122012-03-31$4.0031.08%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-9.69
Median
$-8.38
10th Percentile
$-14.17
90th Percentile
$-6.17

Fair Value Distribution

$-87.64 - $-83.48
1
$-83.48 - $-79.32
0
$-79.32 - $-75.16
0
$-75.16 - $-71.01
0
$-71.01 - $-66.85
0
$-66.85 - $-62.69
0
$-62.69 - $-58.53
0
$-58.53 - $-54.37
0
$-54.37 - $-50.21
0
$-50.21 - $-46.05
0
$-46.05 - $-41.89
0
$-41.89 - $-37.73
1
$-37.73 - $-33.57
3
$-33.57 - $-29.41
1
$-29.41 - $-25.26
8
$-25.26 - $-21.10
12
$-21.10 - $-16.94
34
$-16.94 - $-12.78
74
$-12.78 - $-8.62
329
$-8.62 - $-4.46
537