Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $12.36 |
| 5Y Range | 21.11 – 37.86 |
| 5Y Selected | 29.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.38% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.24% |
| 10Y Range | 22.28 – 38.69 |
| 10Y Selected | 30.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.38% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.65% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6120 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5960 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7661 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2768 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6647 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3820 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4772 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1434 |
| Safety Score | 0.1961 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.75% | 1.11% | 1.47% | 1.83% | 2.20% | 2.56% | 2.92% | 3.28% | 3.64% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 15,535.93 | 15,708.81 | 15,940.30 | 16,232.73 | 16,589.12 | 17,013.19 | 17,509.52 | 18,083.51 | 18,741.59 | 19,491.25 |
| EBITDA | 8,421.04 | 8,514.75 | 8,640.22 | 8,798.73 | 8,991.91 | 9,221.77 | 9,490.80 | 9,801.92 | 10,158.62 | 10,564.97 |
| D&A | -1,500.35 | -1,517.05 | -1,539.40 | -1,567.64 | -1,602.06 | -1,643.01 | -1,690.95 | -1,746.38 | -1,809.93 | -1,882.33 |
| EBIT | 6,920.69 | 6,997.70 | 7,100.82 | 7,231.09 | 7,389.85 | 7,578.76 | 7,799.85 | 8,055.55 | 8,348.69 | 8,682.64 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,099.29 | -2,122.65 | -2,153.93 | -2,193.45 | -2,241.61 | -2,298.91 | -2,365.97 | -2,443.54 | -2,532.46 | -2,633.76 |
| NOPAT | 4,821.40 | 4,875.05 | 4,946.89 | 5,037.64 | 5,148.24 | 5,279.85 | 5,433.88 | 5,612.01 | 5,816.24 | 6,048.89 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,304.74 | -2,330.39 | -2,364.73 | -2,408.11 | -2,460.98 | -2,523.89 | -2,597.52 | -2,682.67 | -2,780.30 | -2,891.51 |
| NWC Investment | 0.39 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.98 | 1.20 | 1.43 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 2.22 | 2.52 |
| (+) D&A | 1,500.35 | 1,517.05 | 1,539.40 | 1,567.64 | 1,602.06 | 1,643.01 | 1,690.95 | 1,746.38 | 1,809.93 | 1,882.33 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,017.40 | 4,062.29 | 4,122.34 | 4,198.16 | 4,290.52 | 4,400.40 | 4,528.97 | 4,677.65 | 4,848.08 | 5,042.23 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 | 3,080,767,454.75 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,989.54 | 3,802.43 | 3,599.27 | 3,416.71 | 3,257.16 | 3,116.03 | 2,991.50 | 2,882.02 | 2,786.24 | 2,703.03 | Raw: 89,423.75 65,564.94 |
Raw: 105,090.94 54,410.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 83,630.06 | 86,954.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 677.34 | 677.34 |
| Equity Value | 82,952.71 | 86,277.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,080.77 | 3,080.77 |
| Fair Value | $26.93 | $28.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.38% | 82.38% |
| Buy Price | $4.74 | $4.93 |
| Current Price | $12.36 | $12.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.63% | -60.09% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,985.84 | 3,769.04 | 3,534.70 | 3,324.09 | 3,139.58 | 2,975.78 | 2,830.46 | 2,701.67 | 2,587.75 | 2,487.27 | Raw: 68,157.18 47,945.37 |
Raw: 80,098.44 37,983.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 65,698.61 | 69,319.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | 677.34 | 677.34 |
| Equity Value | 65,021.26 | 68,642.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,080.77 | 3,080.77 |
| Fair Value | $21.11 | $22.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.38% | 82.38% |
| Buy Price | $3.72 | $3.93 |
| Current Price | $12.36 | $12.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.92% | -68.25% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,993.28 | 3,836.44 | 3,665.65 | 3,512.81 | 3,380.31 | 3,264.29 | 3,163.34 | 3,076.27 | 3,002.04 | 2,939.81 | Raw: 129,409.65 98,932.24 |
Raw: 152,082.45 86,040.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 117,320.73 | 119,874.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | 677.34 | 677.34 |
| Equity Value | 116,643.39 | 119,196.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,080.77 | 3,080.77 |
| Fair Value | $37.86 | $38.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.38% | 82.38% |
| Buy Price | $6.67 | $6.82 |
| Current Price | $12.36 | $12.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.04% | -44.86% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 67,825.77 | 135,105.09 | 269,121.68 | 536,075.14 | 1,067,831.32 | 2,127,059.52 | 4,236,982.08 | 8,439,828.31 | 16,811,659.96 | 33,487,874.42 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% | 99.19% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.78 | 13.51 | 26.91 | 53.61 | 106.78 | 212.71 | 423.70 | 843.98 | 1,681.17 | 3,348.79 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 6.57 | 11.80 | 21.90 | 40.70 | 75.62 | 140.50 | 261.05 | 485.05 | 901.24 | 1,674.54 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $9.56 | -7.05% | $16.20 | 69.43% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $6.37 | 3.97% | $18.08 | 183.87% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $3.25 | 13.87% | $2.69 | -17.26% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $4.01 | 27.38% | $50.91 | 1,169.68% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $2.61 | 26.18% | $27.90 | 968.81% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $1.47 | 13.38% | $9.94 | 575.93% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $4.10 | 2.63% | $21.48 | 423.78% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $2.72 | -10.67% | $-11.64 | -528.11% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $5.02 | -2.31% | $-16.81 | -434.81% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $6.81 | 2.24% | $5.86 | -14.00% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $3.46 | 12.71% | $4.58 | 32.31% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $3.06 | 31.32% | $-6.15 | -301.01% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $11.41 | 39.86% | $-94.59 | -928.99% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $2.87 | 71.90% | $-90.01 | -3,236.20% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $0.01 | -36.47% | $0.00 | -83.69% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $0.00 | -25.62% | $0.00 | -189.81% |
| $16.85 - $21.33 | 53 |
| $21.33 - $25.82 | 280 |
| $25.82 - $30.31 | 287 |
| $30.31 - $34.79 | 196 |
| $34.79 - $39.28 | 87 |
| $39.28 - $43.76 | 42 |
| $43.76 - $48.25 | 21 |
| $48.25 - $52.74 | 16 |
| $52.74 - $57.22 | 5 |
| $57.22 - $61.71 | 4 |
| $61.71 - $66.20 | 1 |
| $66.20 - $70.68 | 3 |
| $70.68 - $75.17 | 0 |
| $75.17 - $79.65 | 1 |
| $79.65 - $84.14 | 1 |
| $84.14 - $88.63 | 0 |
| $88.63 - $93.11 | 1 |
| $93.11 - $97.60 | 0 |
| $97.60 - $102.08 | 0 |
| $102.08 - $106.57 | 2 |