Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $110.07 |
| 5Y Range | 70.42 – 108.34 |
| 5Y Selected | 89.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $39.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.88% |
| 10Y Range | 81.22 – 122.30 |
| 10Y Selected | 101.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $45.26 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9727 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9216 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8854 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8073 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9151 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8490 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3622 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3191 |
| Safety Score | 0.4448 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.61% | 8.99% | 8.36% | 7.74% | 7.12% | 6.49% | 5.87% | 5.25% | 4.62% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,040.40 | 2,223.77 | 2,409.76 | 2,596.28 | 2,781.06 | 2,961.64 | 3,135.50 | 3,300.01 | 3,452.58 | 3,590.68 |
| EBITDA | 412.77 | 449.86 | 487.49 | 525.22 | 562.60 | 599.13 | 634.30 | 667.58 | 698.44 | 726.38 |
| D&A | -70.26 | -76.58 | -82.98 | -89.41 | -95.77 | -101.99 | -107.98 | -113.64 | -118.90 | -123.65 |
| EBIT | 342.50 | 373.28 | 404.50 | 435.81 | 466.83 | 497.14 | 526.32 | 553.94 | 579.55 | 602.73 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -69.46 | -75.70 | -82.03 | -88.38 | -94.67 | -100.82 | -106.74 | -112.34 | -117.53 | -122.23 |
| NOPAT | 273.04 | 297.58 | 322.47 | 347.43 | 372.15 | 396.32 | 419.58 | 441.60 | 462.02 | 480.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | -44.74 | -48.76 | -52.84 | -56.93 | -60.98 | -64.94 | -68.76 | -72.36 | -75.71 | -78.74 |
| NWC Investment | -33.39 | -34.22 | -34.71 | -34.81 | -34.48 | -33.70 | -32.44 | -30.70 | -28.47 | -25.77 |
| (+) D&A | 70.26 | 76.58 | 82.98 | 89.41 | 95.77 | 101.99 | 107.98 | 113.64 | 118.90 | 123.65 |
| Free Cash Flow | 265.18 | 291.17 | 317.90 | 345.09 | 372.46 | 399.66 | 426.36 | 452.18 | 476.73 | 499.64 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 | 61,600,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 262.88 | 279.74 | 279.95 | 278.55 | 275.57 | 271.04 | 265.03 | 257.64 | 248.98 | 239.18 | Raw: 5,749.76 4,072.82 |
Raw: 7,713.07 3,534.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,449.51 | 6,193.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 207.30 | 207.30 |
| Equity Value | 5,242.21 | 5,986.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 61.60 | 61.60 |
| Fair Value | $85.10 | $97.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.52% | 55.52% |
| Buy Price | $37.85 | $43.23 |
| Current Price | $110.07 | $110.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.61% | -60.73% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 262.64 | 278.57 | 276.24 | 272.37 | 267.01 | 260.23 | 252.15 | 242.89 | 232.59 | 221.41 | Raw: 4,666.97 3,188.51 |
Raw: 6,260.55 2,644.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,545.34 | 5,210.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 207.30 | 207.30 |
| Equity Value | 4,338.04 | 5,002.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 61.60 | 61.60 |
| Fair Value | $70.42 | $81.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.52% | 55.52% |
| Buy Price | $31.32 | $36.12 |
| Current Price | $110.07 | $110.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.54% | -67.18% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 263.12 | 280.93 | 283.74 | 284.94 | 284.49 | 282.40 | 278.70 | 273.43 | 266.68 | 258.56 | Raw: 7,464.87 5,484.09 |
Raw: 10,013.82 4,984.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,881.30 | 7,741.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | 207.30 | 207.30 |
| Equity Value | 6,674.00 | 7,533.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 61.60 | 61.60 |
| Fair Value | $108.34 | $122.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 55.52% | 55.52% |
| Buy Price | $48.19 | $54.40 |
| Current Price | $110.07 | $110.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.22% | -50.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,821.36 | 11,309.48 | 26,528.67 | 62,228.39 | 145,969.32 | 342,400.69 | 803,170.37 | 1,883,999.24 | 4,419,302.91 | 10,366,372.64 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% | 134.57% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.48 | 1.13 | 2.65 | 6.22 | 14.60 | 34.24 | 80.32 | 188.40 | 441.93 | 1,036.64 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.45 | 0.91 | 1.96 | 4.22 | 9.07 | 19.51 | 41.95 | 90.19 | 193.91 | 416.93 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $32.25 | 13.29% | $26.25 | -18.62% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $19.90 | 9.06% | $26.32 | 32.24% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $20.09 | 5.14% | $16.41 | -18.30% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $15.61 | 5.95% | $5.78 | -62.97% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $15.85 | 12.39% | $36.41 | 129.73% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $15.44 | 14.33% | $22.90 | 48.34% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $14.65 | 6.31% | $17.18 | 17.28% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $7.61 | -0.20% | $0.39 | -94.94% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $4.15 | -2.87% | $-5.42 | -230.61% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.86 | 0.57% | $1.45 | -78.83% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $6.02 | 3.61% | $13.62 | 126.24% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $8.21 | -2.38% | $20.43 | 148.83% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $11.22 | -10.79% | $2.32 | -79.29% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $16.04 | -19.28% | $-2.82 | -117.58% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $15.01 | -19.15% | $3.05 | -79.67% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $17.66 | -11.92% | $-2.50 | -114.18% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $17.52 | -2.73% | $6.45 | -63.17% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $19.42 | 1.68% | $13.64 | -29.76% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $22.27 | 1.41% | $15.69 | -29.53% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $19.63 | 2.93% | $5.66 | -71.16% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $16.06 | 1.92% | $-15.28 | -195.16% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $27.38 | 4.43% | $13.00 | -52.52% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $21.63 | 5.17% | $12.96 | -40.11% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $25.88 | 3.48% | $11.75 | -54.59% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $25.88 | 3.31% | $13.18 | -49.08% |
| $66.73 - $73.40 | 11 |
| $73.40 - $80.06 | 63 |
| $80.06 - $86.73 | 117 |
| $86.73 - $93.39 | 189 |
| $93.39 - $100.05 | 182 |
| $100.05 - $106.72 | 140 |
| $106.72 - $113.38 | 94 |
| $113.38 - $120.05 | 75 |
| $120.05 - $126.71 | 43 |
| $126.71 - $133.38 | 22 |
| $133.38 - $140.04 | 23 |
| $140.04 - $146.70 | 18 |
| $146.70 - $153.37 | 9 |
| $153.37 - $160.03 | 7 |
| $160.03 - $166.70 | 2 |
| $166.70 - $173.36 | 1 |
| $173.36 - $180.03 | 1 |
| $180.03 - $186.69 | 0 |
| $186.69 - $193.35 | 1 |
| $193.35 - $200.02 | 2 |