Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $21.20 |
| 5Y Range | -61.47 – -44.16 |
| 5Y Selected | -52.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.54% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-11.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -153.47% |
| 10Y Range | 11.78 – 37.91 |
| 10Y Selected | 24.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.54% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.84% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6068 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7625 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0407 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4724 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0123 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5697 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0012 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0016 |
| Safety Score | 0.2146 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 31.33% | 28.30% | 25.26% | 22.22% | 19.19% | 16.15% | 13.11% | 10.07% | 7.04% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 583.91 | 749.15 | 938.38 | 1,146.92 | 1,366.96 | 1,587.71 | 1,795.88 | 1,976.80 | 2,115.92 | 2,200.55 |
| EBITDA | 35.50 | 45.54 | 57.05 | 69.73 | 83.11 | 96.53 | 109.18 | 120.18 | 128.64 | 133.78 |
| D&A | -4.32 | -5.54 | -6.94 | -8.48 | -10.11 | -11.74 | -13.28 | -14.62 | -15.65 | -16.28 |
| EBIT | 31.18 | 40.00 | 50.11 | 61.24 | 72.99 | 84.78 | 95.90 | 105.56 | 112.99 | 117.51 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -7.56 | -9.70 | -12.15 | -14.85 | -17.70 | -20.56 | -23.25 | -25.59 | -27.39 | -28.49 |
| NOPAT | 23.62 | 30.30 | 37.96 | 46.40 | 55.30 | 64.23 | 72.65 | 79.97 | 85.59 | 89.02 |
| Capital Expenditures | -11.30 | -14.49 | -18.15 | -22.19 | -26.45 | -30.72 | -34.75 | -38.25 | -40.94 | -42.57 |
| NWC Investment | -37.24 | -44.16 | -50.58 | -55.74 | -58.81 | -59.00 | -55.64 | -48.36 | -37.18 | -22.62 |
| (+) D&A | 4.32 | 5.54 | 6.94 | 8.48 | 10.11 | 11.74 | 13.28 | 14.62 | 15.65 | 16.28 |
| Free Cash Flow | -20.59 | -22.81 | -23.83 | -23.05 | -19.85 | -13.75 | -4.45 | 7.99 | 23.13 | 40.10 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 | 6,978,169.50 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | -20.41 | -21.46 | -20.54 | -18.20 | -14.37 | -9.12 | -2.71 | 4.45 | 11.82 | 18.78 | Raw: -302.62 -209.74 |
Raw: 611.20 274.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -304.73 | 202.32 |
| (-) Net Debt | 50.40 | 50.40 |
| Equity Value | -355.13 | 151.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6.98 | 6.98 |
| Fair Value | $-50.89 | $21.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.54% | 78.54% |
| Buy Price | $-10.92 | $4.67 |
| Current Price | $21.20 | $21.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -151.53% | -77.96% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | -20.40 | -21.33 | -20.22 | -17.76 | -13.89 | -8.74 | -2.57 | 4.19 | 11.01 | 17.35 | Raw: -246.16 -164.19 |
Raw: 497.18 204.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -257.78 | 132.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | 50.40 | 50.40 |
| Equity Value | -308.17 | 82.24 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6.98 | 6.98 |
| Fair Value | $-44.16 | $11.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.54% | 78.54% |
| Buy Price | $-9.48 | $2.53 |
| Current Price | $21.20 | $21.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -144.71% | -88.07% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | -20.43 | -21.60 | -20.86 | -18.66 | -14.87 | -9.53 | -2.86 | 4.74 | 12.69 | 20.35 | Raw: -391.53 -282.09 |
Raw: 790.78 386.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -378.53 | 314.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 50.40 | 50.40 |
| Equity Value | -428.92 | 264.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6.98 | 6.98 |
| Fair Value | $-61.47 | $37.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.54% | 78.54% |
| Buy Price | $-13.19 | $8.14 |
| Current Price | $21.20 | $21.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -162.23% | -61.61% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 954.63 | 1,785.33 | 3,338.89 | 6,244.32 | 11,677.99 | 21,839.93 | 40,844.56 | 76,386.60 | 142,856.55 | 267,167.22 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% | 87.02% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 1.17 | 2.18 | 4.08 | 7.64 | 14.29 | 26.72 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 0.77 | 1.33 | 2.28 | 3.90 | 6.69 | 11.47 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $4.41 | 30.56% | $48.43 | 998.18% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $7.62 | 39.54% | $89.99 | 1,080.93% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $5.87 | 28.09% | $19.91 | 239.20% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $6.45 | 14.28% | $-3.81 | -159.10% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $5.42 | 10.77% | $3.58 | -34.03% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $6.20 | 19.06% | $-59.59 | -1,061.16% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $8.43 | 13.97% | $6.17 | -26.86% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $9.89 | -3.16% | $23.46 | 137.25% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $10.95 | -14.93% | $10.71 | -2.17% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $10.19 | -15.96% | $-6.80 | -166.77% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $5.73 | -7.21% | $8.85 | 54.46% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $4.92 | 11.92% | $88.78 | 1,704.42% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $5.13 | 0.58% | $-8.05 | -256.82% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $9.24 | -6.83% | $-0.02 | -100.19% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $9.30 | -18.86% | $6.02 | -35.30% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $6.83 | -19.48% | $1.25 | -81.63% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $3.27 | 4.15% | $5.53 | 69.03% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $2.41 | 12.62% | $-1.46 | -160.63% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $2.55 | 20.32% | $36.31 | 1,323.84% |
| 2001 | 2001-03-31 | $2.76 | 19.70% | $19.42 | 603.66% |
| 2000 | 2000-03-31 | $3.81 | 11.03% | $-9.45 | -348.07% |
| 1999 | 1999-03-31 | $3.51 | -2.04% | $7.58 | 115.88% |
| 1998 | 1998-03-31 | $6.10 | -5.45% | $1.11 | -81.86% |
| 1997 | 1997-03-31 | $4.73 | -8.95% | $1.44 | -69.55% |
| 1996 | 1996-03-31 | $3.04 | -2.30% | $2.71 | -10.80% |
| $1.51 - $5.80 | 14 |
| $5.80 - $10.10 | 50 |
| $10.10 - $14.39 | 144 |
| $14.39 - $18.68 | 187 |
| $18.68 - $22.98 | 186 |
| $22.98 - $27.27 | 127 |
| $27.27 - $31.56 | 97 |
| $31.56 - $35.85 | 77 |
| $35.85 - $40.15 | 41 |
| $40.15 - $44.44 | 27 |
| $44.44 - $48.73 | 23 |
| $48.73 - $53.03 | 12 |
| $53.03 - $57.32 | 6 |
| $57.32 - $61.61 | 3 |
| $61.61 - $65.90 | 1 |
| $65.90 - $70.20 | 2 |
| $70.20 - $74.49 | 1 |
| $74.49 - $78.78 | 1 |
| $78.78 - $83.08 | 0 |
| $83.08 - $87.37 | 1 |