Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $66.09 |
| 5Y Range | 107.39 – 174.99 |
| 5Y Selected | 141.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.23% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $61.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.49% |
| 10Y Range | 132.24 – 209.13 |
| 10Y Selected | 170.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.23% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $74.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 13.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9975 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9346 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8372 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7953 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8904 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7550 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6276 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3893 |
| Safety Score | 0.4377 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 19.34% | 17.63% | 15.93% | 14.23% | 12.52% | 10.82% | 9.11% | 7.41% | 5.70% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,974.70 | 4,675.61 | 5,420.45 | 6,191.55 | 6,966.83 | 7,720.45 | 8,424.01 | 9,048.11 | 9,564.24 | 9,946.81 |
| EBITDA | 975.23 | 1,147.20 | 1,329.96 | 1,519.15 | 1,709.37 | 1,894.28 | 2,066.91 | 2,220.03 | 2,346.67 | 2,440.54 |
| D&A | -345.26 | -406.14 | -470.84 | -537.82 | -605.17 | -670.63 | -731.74 | -785.95 | -830.79 | -864.02 |
| EBIT | 629.97 | 741.06 | 859.11 | 981.33 | 1,104.21 | 1,223.65 | 1,335.16 | 1,434.08 | 1,515.88 | 1,576.52 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -132.29 | -155.62 | -180.41 | -206.08 | -231.88 | -256.97 | -280.38 | -301.16 | -318.34 | -331.07 |
| NOPAT | 497.68 | 585.44 | 678.70 | 775.25 | 872.32 | 966.69 | 1,054.78 | 1,132.92 | 1,197.55 | 1,245.45 |
| Capital Expenditures | -300.30 | -353.25 | -409.53 | -467.78 | -526.36 | -583.29 | -636.45 | -683.60 | -722.60 | -751.50 |
| NWC Investment | 15.79 | 17.19 | 18.26 | 18.91 | 19.01 | 18.48 | 17.25 | 15.30 | 12.66 | 9.38 |
| (+) D&A | 345.26 | 406.14 | 470.84 | 537.82 | 605.17 | 670.63 | 731.74 | 785.95 | 830.79 | 864.02 |
| Free Cash Flow | 558.43 | 655.52 | 758.28 | 864.20 | 970.14 | 1,072.50 | 1,167.32 | 1,250.58 | 1,318.40 | 1,367.35 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 | 90,126,066.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 553.59 | 629.78 | 667.75 | 697.56 | 717.78 | 727.33 | 725.62 | 712.55 | 688.55 | 654.56 | Raw: 14,992.07 10,619.57 |
Raw: 21,130.30 9,684.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,886.03 | 16,459.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,850.08 | 1,850.08 |
| Equity Value | 12,035.96 | 14,609.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 90.13 | 90.13 |
| Fair Value | $133.55 | $162.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.23% | 56.23% |
| Buy Price | $58.45 | $70.95 |
| Current Price | $66.09 | $66.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -11.56% | 7.35% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 553.08 | 627.14 | 658.92 | 682.08 | 695.47 | 698.33 | 690.36 | 671.76 | 643.24 | 605.93 | Raw: 12,166.58 8,312.32 |
Raw: 17,147.97 7,242.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,529.01 | 13,768.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,850.08 | 1,850.08 |
| Equity Value | 9,678.93 | 11,918.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 90.13 | 90.13 |
| Fair Value | $107.39 | $132.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.23% | 56.23% |
| Buy Price | $47.01 | $57.88 |
| Current Price | $66.09 | $66.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -28.88% | -12.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 554.10 | 632.45 | 676.79 | 713.54 | 741.01 | 757.83 | 763.04 | 756.22 | 737.51 | 707.59 | Raw: 19,469.66 14,303.44 |
Raw: 27,441.16 13,658.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,621.34 | 20,698.37 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,850.08 | 1,850.08 |
| Equity Value | 15,771.26 | 18,848.30 |
| (/) Shares Out | 90.13 | 90.13 |
| Fair Value | $174.99 | $209.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.23% | 56.23% |
| Buy Price | $76.59 | $91.54 |
| Current Price | $66.09 | $66.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 15.89% | 38.50% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,630.29 | 19,204.30 | 42,733.78 | 95,092.05 | 211,600.70 | 470,858.06 | 1,047,762.64 | 2,331,502.09 | 5,188,104.44 | 11,544,672.34 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% | 122.52% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.86 | 1.92 | 4.27 | 9.51 | 21.16 | 47.09 | 104.78 | 233.15 | 518.81 | 1,154.47 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.80 | 1.55 | 3.16 | 6.45 | 13.15 | 26.83 | 54.72 | 111.61 | 227.65 | 464.32 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $33.54 | 26.68% | $-7.28 | -121.71% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $33.54 | 27.20% | $4.74 | -85.86% |
| $99.40 - $119.25 | 26 |
| $119.25 - $139.10 | 151 |
| $139.10 - $158.95 | 295 |
| $158.95 - $178.80 | 246 |
| $178.80 - $198.65 | 143 |
| $198.65 - $218.50 | 66 |
| $218.50 - $238.35 | 36 |
| $238.35 - $258.20 | 20 |
| $258.20 - $278.05 | 5 |
| $278.05 - $297.90 | 5 |
| $297.90 - $317.75 | 2 |
| $317.75 - $337.60 | 3 |
| $337.60 - $357.45 | 0 |
| $357.45 - $377.30 | 0 |
| $377.30 - $397.15 | 0 |
| $397.15 - $417.00 | 0 |
| $417.00 - $436.85 | 1 |
| $436.85 - $456.70 | 0 |
| $456.70 - $476.55 | 0 |
| $476.55 - $496.40 | 1 |