Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $52.10 |
| 5Y Range | 84.95 – 128.13 |
| 5Y Selected | 106.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.37% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $28.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.54% |
| 10Y Range | 93.44 – 137.50 |
| 10Y Selected | 115.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.37% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $30.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -40.98% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6183 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9016 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1745 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3260 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0512 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7063 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0473 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2230 |
| Safety Score | 0.2663 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.99% | 7.55% | 7.10% | 6.66% | 6.22% | 5.77% | 5.33% | 4.89% | 4.44% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,762.48 | 1,895.47 | 2,030.09 | 2,165.28 | 2,299.88 | 2,432.65 | 2,562.30 | 2,687.50 | 2,806.91 | 2,919.19 |
| EBITDA | 551.63 | 593.25 | 635.38 | 677.70 | 719.82 | 761.38 | 801.96 | 841.14 | 878.52 | 913.66 |
| D&A | -28.14 | -30.27 | -32.41 | -34.57 | -36.72 | -38.84 | -40.91 | -42.91 | -44.82 | -46.61 |
| EBIT | 523.48 | 562.98 | 602.97 | 643.12 | 683.10 | 722.53 | 761.04 | 798.23 | 833.70 | 867.05 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -139.59 | -150.13 | -160.79 | -171.50 | -182.16 | -192.67 | -202.94 | -212.86 | -222.32 | -231.21 |
| NOPAT | 383.89 | 412.86 | 442.18 | 471.63 | 500.94 | 529.86 | 558.10 | 585.37 | 611.38 | 635.84 |
| Capital Expenditures | -13.65 | -14.68 | -15.72 | -16.77 | -17.81 | -18.84 | -19.84 | -20.81 | -21.73 | -22.60 |
| NWC Investment | 10.94 | 11.16 | 11.30 | 11.34 | 11.29 | 11.14 | 10.88 | 10.51 | 10.02 | 9.42 |
| (+) D&A | 28.14 | 30.27 | 32.41 | 34.57 | 36.72 | 38.84 | 40.91 | 42.91 | 44.82 | 46.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 409.33 | 439.61 | 470.17 | 500.78 | 531.15 | 561.01 | 590.05 | 617.98 | 644.49 | 669.27 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 | 76,921,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 405.78 | 422.71 | 414.40 | 404.22 | 392.98 | 380.46 | 366.78 | 352.11 | 336.59 | 320.38 | Raw: 8,186.44 5,798.83 |
Raw: 10,315.14 4,727.55 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,838.92 | 8,523.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | 18.29 | 18.29 |
| Equity Value | 7,820.64 | 8,505.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 76.92 | 76.92 |
| Fair Value | $101.67 | $110.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.37% | 73.37% |
| Buy Price | $27.07 | $29.45 |
| Current Price | $52.10 | $52.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.03% | -43.48% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 405.41 | 420.98 | 408.96 | 395.25 | 380.77 | 365.29 | 348.96 | 331.96 | 314.44 | 296.58 | Raw: 6,646.62 4,541.03 |
Raw: 8,374.92 3,537.02 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,552.39 | 7,205.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 18.29 | 18.29 |
| Equity Value | 6,534.10 | 7,187.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 76.92 | 76.92 |
| Fair Value | $84.95 | $93.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.37% | 73.37% |
| Buy Price | $22.62 | $24.88 |
| Current Price | $52.10 | $52.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.58% | -52.24% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 406.15 | 424.47 | 419.97 | 413.48 | 405.70 | 396.41 | 385.70 | 373.69 | 360.52 | 346.34 | Raw: 10,623.73 7,804.75 |
Raw: 13,386.19 6,662.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,874.53 | 10,595.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | 18.29 | 18.29 |
| Equity Value | 9,856.24 | 10,576.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 76.92 | 76.92 |
| Fair Value | $128.13 | $137.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.37% | 73.37% |
| Buy Price | $34.12 | $36.62 |
| Current Price | $52.10 | $52.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -34.51% | -29.72% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,931.08 | 8,868.44 | 20,007.03 | 45,135.49 | 101,824.82 | 229,714.90 | 518,232.55 | 1,169,123.03 | 2,637,519.85 | 5,950,195.85 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.39 | 0.89 | 2.00 | 4.51 | 10.18 | 22.97 | 51.82 | 116.91 | 263.75 | 595.02 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.37 | 0.72 | 1.48 | 3.06 | 6.33 | 13.09 | 27.07 | 55.97 | 115.73 | 239.31 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $32.59 | 9.50% | $75.97 | 133.12% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $26.55 | 7.98% | $41.64 | 56.82% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $36.08 | 7.46% | $57.10 | 58.25% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $28.28 | 6.58% | $47.85 | 69.20% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $28.65 | 7.14% | $46.17 | 61.16% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $32.93 | 7.99% | $37.73 | 14.56% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $28.80 | 8.39% | $52.88 | 83.61% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $20.23 | 8.23% | $63.75 | 215.11% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $15.15 | 4.59% | $16.56 | 9.29% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $26.17 | -0.28% | $27.13 | 3.66% |
| $68.73 - $77.54 | 5 |
| $77.54 - $86.34 | 24 |
| $86.34 - $95.14 | 111 |
| $95.14 - $103.95 | 207 |
| $103.95 - $112.75 | 208 |
| $112.75 - $121.55 | 144 |
| $121.55 - $130.35 | 122 |
| $130.35 - $139.16 | 68 |
| $139.16 - $147.96 | 43 |
| $147.96 - $156.76 | 35 |
| $156.76 - $165.57 | 15 |
| $165.57 - $174.37 | 10 |
| $174.37 - $183.17 | 2 |
| $183.17 - $191.98 | 0 |
| $191.98 - $200.78 | 1 |
| $200.78 - $209.58 | 2 |
| $209.58 - $218.39 | 1 |
| $218.39 - $227.19 | 1 |
| $227.19 - $235.99 | 0 |
| $235.99 - $244.79 | 0 |