Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.56 |
| 5Y Range | 10.17 – 17.17 |
| 5Y Selected | 13.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 37.59% |
| 10Y Range | 12.81 – 21.38 |
| 10Y Selected | 17.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 72.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1380 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1205 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1356 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1076 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0089 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0264 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0869 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0143 |
| Safety Score | 0.1570 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 22.41% | 20.36% | 18.32% | 16.27% | 14.23% | 12.18% | 10.14% | 8.09% | 6.05% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 180.49 | 217.25 | 257.04 | 298.87 | 341.40 | 382.99 | 421.81 | 455.94 | 483.50 | 502.84 |
| EBITDA | 241.21 | 290.33 | 343.51 | 399.41 | 456.24 | 511.82 | 563.70 | 609.31 | 646.15 | 671.99 |
| D&A | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| EBIT | 241.20 | 290.32 | 343.50 | 399.40 | 456.23 | 511.81 | 563.69 | 609.30 | 646.13 | 671.98 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -86.02 | -103.54 | -122.51 | -142.44 | -162.71 | -182.53 | -201.03 | -217.30 | -230.44 | -239.65 |
| NOPAT | 155.18 | 186.78 | 221.00 | 256.96 | 293.52 | 329.28 | 362.66 | 392.00 | 415.70 | 432.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| NWC Investment | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.74 | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Free Cash Flow | 155.89 | 187.57 | 221.86 | 257.86 | 294.44 | 330.18 | 363.49 | 392.74 | 416.29 | 432.74 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 | 398,103,523.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 154.76 | 181.37 | 199.39 | 215.41 | 228.62 | 238.29 | 243.84 | 244.88 | 241.27 | 233.12 | Raw: 5,438.16 4,070.96 |
Raw: 7,992.58 4,150.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,050.52 | 6,331.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | -13.70 | -13.70 |
| Equity Value | 5,064.22 | 6,345.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 398.10 | 398.10 |
| Fair Value | $12.72 | $15.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% | 85.78% |
| Buy Price | $1.81 | $2.27 |
| Current Price | $1.56 | $1.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 15.96% | 45.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 154.61 | 180.60 | 196.72 | 210.56 | 221.42 | 228.66 | 231.83 | 230.67 | 225.18 | 215.57 | Raw: 4,256.17 3,071.52 |
Raw: 6,255.39 2,990.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,035.43 | 5,086.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | -13.70 | -13.70 |
| Equity Value | 4,049.14 | 5,099.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 398.10 | 398.10 |
| Fair Value | $10.17 | $12.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% | 85.78% |
| Buy Price | $1.45 | $1.82 |
| Current Price | $1.56 | $1.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -7.29% | 16.77% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 154.90 | 182.15 | 202.13 | 220.42 | 236.13 | 248.43 | 256.60 | 260.11 | 258.67 | 252.28 | Raw: 7,500.93 5,826.68 |
Raw: 11,024.30 6,225.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,822.41 | 8,497.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | -13.70 | -13.70 |
| Equity Value | 6,836.11 | 8,510.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 398.10 | 398.10 |
| Fair Value | $17.17 | $21.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.78% | 85.78% |
| Buy Price | $2.44 | $3.04 |
| Current Price | $1.56 | $1.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 56.53% | 94.87% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 452.73 | 1,008.58 | 2,246.91 | 5,005.62 | 11,151.44 | 24,843.00 | 55,344.81 | 123,296.24 | 274,677.30 | 611,921.48 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% | 122.78% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.50 | 1.12 | 2.48 | 5.53 | 12.33 | 27.47 | 61.19 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.75 | 1.55 | 3.21 | 6.64 | 13.75 | 28.48 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.07 | 52.60% | $-1.13 | -205.41% |
| $9.01 - $13.86 | 196 |
| $13.86 - $18.71 | 571 |
| $18.71 - $23.55 | 185 |
| $23.55 - $28.40 | 35 |
| $28.40 - $33.25 | 10 |
| $33.25 - $38.10 | 1 |
| $38.10 - $42.95 | 1 |
| $42.95 - $47.80 | 0 |
| $47.80 - $52.65 | 0 |
| $52.65 - $57.49 | 0 |
| $57.49 - $62.34 | 0 |
| $62.34 - $67.19 | 0 |
| $67.19 - $72.04 | 0 |
| $72.04 - $76.89 | 0 |
| $76.89 - $81.74 | 0 |
| $81.74 - $86.59 | 0 |
| $86.59 - $91.43 | 0 |
| $91.43 - $96.28 | 0 |
| $96.28 - $101.13 | 0 |
| $101.13 - $105.98 | 1 |