Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $16.00 |
| 5Y Range | 5.55 – 9.45 |
| 5Y Selected | 7.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.39% |
| 10Y Range | 6.58 – 10.63 |
| 10Y Selected | 8.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.42% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1712 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0008 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1935 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0105 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1728 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0010 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3784 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0398 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.73% | 8.21% | 7.68% | 7.15% | 6.63% | 6.10% | 5.58% | 5.05% | 4.53% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 29.64 | 32.07 | 34.53 | 37.00 | 39.46 | 41.86 | 44.20 | 46.43 | 48.53 | 50.47 |
| EBITDA | 27.56 | 29.82 | 32.11 | 34.41 | 36.69 | 38.93 | 41.10 | 43.18 | 45.13 | 46.94 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 27.56 | 29.82 | 32.11 | 34.41 | 36.69 | 38.93 | 41.10 | 43.18 | 45.13 | 46.94 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -17.92 | -19.40 | -20.89 | -22.38 | -23.86 | -25.32 | -26.73 | -28.08 | -29.35 | -30.53 |
| NOPAT | 9.64 | 10.43 | 11.23 | 12.03 | 12.83 | 13.61 | 14.37 | 15.10 | 15.78 | 16.41 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9.99 | 10.79 | 11.60 | 12.40 | 13.20 | 13.97 | 14.72 | 15.43 | 16.10 | 16.70 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 | 19,461,999.75 |
| Metric | Nov-24 | Nov-25 | Nov-26 | Nov-27 | Nov-28 | Nov-29 | Nov-30 | Nov-31 | Nov-32 | Nov-33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 11/30/23 | 12/1/24 | 12/1/25 | 12/1/26 | 12/1/27 | 12/1/28 | 12/1/29 | 12/1/30 | 12/1/31 | 12/1/32 |
| Period End | 11/30/24 | 11/30/25 | 11/30/26 | 11/30/27 | 11/30/28 | 11/30/29 | 11/30/30 | 11/30/31 | 11/30/32 | 11/30/33 |
| Mid-Point | 5/31/24 | 6/1/25 | 6/1/26 | 6/1/27 | 5/31/28 | 6/1/29 | 6/1/30 | 6/1/31 | 5/31/32 | 6/1/33 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.37 | 1.37 | 2.37 | 3.38 | 4.38 | 5.38 | 6.38 | 7.38 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.91 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.01 | 10.74 | 10.41 | 10.05 | 9.66 | 9.24 | 8.78 | Raw: 189.65 147.71 |
Raw: 240.04 120.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 201.29 | 222.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | 63.34 | 63.34 |
| Equity Value | 137.95 | 159.24 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.46 | 19.46 |
| Fair Value | $7.09 | $8.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $1.00 | $1.15 |
| Current Price | $16.00 | $16.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.76% | -92.79% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.90 | 10.69 | 11.19 | 10.87 | 10.51 | 10.09 | 9.66 | 9.20 | 8.71 | 8.21 | Raw: 155.79 118.21 |
Raw: 197.19 92.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 171.36 | 191.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | 63.34 | 63.34 |
| Equity Value | 108.02 | 128.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.46 | 19.46 |
| Fair Value | $5.55 | $6.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $0.78 | $0.93 |
| Current Price | $16.00 | $16.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.11% | -94.20% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.92 | 10.71 | 11.27 | 11.15 | 10.97 | 10.74 | 10.47 | 10.15 | 9.79 | 9.40 | Raw: 241.65 193.25 |
Raw: 305.86 165.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 247.26 | 270.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 63.34 | 63.34 |
| Equity Value | 183.92 | 206.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 19.46 | 19.46 |
| Fair Value | $9.45 | $10.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $1.33 | $1.50 |
| Current Price | $16.00 | $16.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.68% | -90.64% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 272.59 | 635.23 | 1,480.30 | 3,449.57 | 8,038.60 | 18,732.54 | 43,652.84 | 101,725.19 | 237,052.48 | 552,408.68 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% | 133.03% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.80 | 1.87 | 4.37 | 10.17 | 23.71 | 55.24 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.50 | 1.07 | 2.30 | 4.90 | 10.47 | 22.37 |
| $4.96 - $5.51 | 10 |
| $5.51 - $6.06 | 23 |
| $6.06 - $6.61 | 83 |
| $6.61 - $7.16 | 113 |
| $7.16 - $7.71 | 160 |
| $7.71 - $8.27 | 152 |
| $8.27 - $8.82 | 118 |
| $8.82 - $9.37 | 115 |
| $9.37 - $9.92 | 86 |
| $9.92 - $10.47 | 47 |
| $10.47 - $11.02 | 27 |
| $11.02 - $11.57 | 14 |
| $11.57 - $12.12 | 19 |
| $12.12 - $12.67 | 9 |
| $12.67 - $13.22 | 13 |
| $13.22 - $13.78 | 2 |
| $13.78 - $14.33 | 4 |
| $14.33 - $14.88 | 2 |
| $14.88 - $15.43 | 2 |
| $15.43 - $15.98 | 1 |