Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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EZTEC Empreendimentos e Participações S.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$14.45
5Y Range39.80 – 101.72
5Y Selected70.76
(-) Safety Margin83.74%
5Y Buy Price$14.26
Upside (to Buy Price)-1.33%
10Y Range49.41 – 124.29
10Y Selected86.85
(-) Safety Margin83.74%
10Y Buy Price$17.50
Upside (to Buy Price)21.11%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7441
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.5503
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1489
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0122
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0026
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2495
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0311
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3685
Safety Score0.2015

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.54%8.93%8.31%7.70%7.08%6.46%5.85%5.23%4.62%4.00%
Revenue1,709.461,862.062,016.812,172.012,325.772,476.092,620.882,758.002,885.313,000.72
EBITDA492.30536.25580.81625.51669.79713.08754.78794.26830.93864.16
D&A-21.04-22.92-24.83-26.74-28.63-30.48-32.26-33.95-35.52-36.94
EBIT471.26513.33555.99598.77641.16682.60722.52760.32795.41827.23
Pro forma Taxes-32.68-35.60-38.55-41.52-44.46-47.33-50.10-52.72-55.16-57.36
NOPAT438.58477.73517.43557.25596.70635.27672.41707.59740.25769.87
Capital Expenditures-14.19-15.46-16.74-18.03-19.31-20.55-21.76-22.89-23.95-24.91
NWC Investment-143.47-147.01-149.09-149.52-148.13-144.82-139.49-132.10-122.65-111.19
(+) D&A21.0422.9224.8326.7428.6330.4832.2633.9535.5236.94
Free Cash Flow301.96338.18376.43416.44457.89500.37543.43586.55629.17670.71
Diluted Shares Outstanding220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75220,321,064.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.19%Terminal Growth: 2.84%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.760.720.680.640.60
PV UFCF300.16329.16345.01359.21371.92382.72391.41397.82401.84403.38
Raw: 14,055.52
11,078.63
Raw: 20,588.20
12,015.77

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,784.0815,698.39
(-) Net Debt248.18248.18
Equity Value12,535.9015,450.21
(/) Shares Out220.32220.32
Fair Value$56.90$70.13
(-) Safety Margin83.74%83.74%
Buy Price$9.25$11.40
Current Price$14.45$14.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-35.97%-21.09%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.19%Terminal Growth: 2.34%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.790.730.680.640.600.56
PV UFCF299.87327.77340.36351.02360.05367.05371.88374.45374.71372.63
Raw: 9,661.57
7,337.84
Raw: 14,152.05
7,594.18

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,016.9111,133.98
(-) Net Debt248.18248.18
Equity Value8,768.7210,885.79
(/) Shares Out220.32220.32
Fair Value$39.80$49.41
(-) Safety Margin83.74%83.74%
Buy Price$6.47$8.03
Current Price$14.45$14.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-55.21%-44.40%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.19%Terminal Growth: 3.34%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.800.760.720.690.65
PV UFCF300.44330.56349.78367.67384.30399.21412.16422.90431.23437.00
Raw: 25,573.37
20,926.61
Raw: 37,459.28
23,796.29

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value22,659.3527,631.53
(-) Net Debt248.18248.18
Equity Value22,411.1627,383.35
(/) Shares Out220.32220.32
Fair Value$101.72$124.29
(-) Safety Margin83.74%83.74%
Buy Price$16.54$20.21
Current Price$14.45$14.45
Upside (to Buy Price)14.46%39.86%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$14.45
WACC Used6.2%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH105.47%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,403.526,993.3914,369.6529,526.0260,668.55124,658.61256,142.10526,307.601,081,429.772,222,066.23
Constant Implied Growth105.47%105.47%105.47%105.47%105.47%105.47%105.47%105.47%105.47%105.47%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.340.701.442.956.0712.4725.6152.63108.14222.21
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.720.680.640.600.570.53
Present Value of Implied FCF0.320.601.172.264.378.4516.3631.6561.25118.51

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$44.3412.63%$9.14-79.39%
20182018-12-31$18.088.93%$15.11-16.42%
20172017-12-31$17.8620.98%$130.35629.82%
20162016-12-31$9.124.53%$9.756.89%
20152015-12-31$6.573.65%$6.13-6.69%
20142014-12-31$9.97-8.23%$-3.50-135.11%
20132013-12-31$12.75-18.02%$-0.53-104.16%
20122012-12-31$11.36-8.55%$-5.34-147.05%
20112011-12-31$6.74-4.21%$7.5812.47%
20102010-12-31$5.737.90%$12.34115.44%
20092009-12-31$3.2413.14%$-12.40-482.59%
20082008-12-31$0.8215.47%$-29.73-3,737.28%
20072007-12-31$2.9416.43%$-20.94-812.14%
20062006-12-31$3.5334.47%$-0.54-115.35%
20052005-12-31$3.5387.54%$-6.47-283.34%
20042004-12-31$3.5369.12%$-21.58-711.38%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$81.38
Median
$69.45
10th Percentile
$49.22
90th Percentile
$120.93

Fair Value Distribution

$34.76 - $69.79
506
$69.79 - $104.82
328
$104.82 - $139.84
107
$139.84 - $174.87
25
$174.87 - $209.90
14
$209.90 - $244.93
9
$244.93 - $279.96
3
$279.96 - $314.98
1
$314.98 - $350.01
1
$350.01 - $385.04
2
$385.04 - $420.07
0
$420.07 - $455.10
0
$455.10 - $490.13
0
$490.13 - $525.15
2
$525.15 - $560.18
1
$560.18 - $595.21
0
$595.21 - $630.24
0
$630.24 - $665.27
0
$665.27 - $700.29
0
$700.29 - $735.32
0