Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $285.02 |
| 5Y Range | 334.20 – 495.80 |
| 5Y Selected | 415.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $58.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.35% |
| 10Y Range | 351.03 – 503.70 |
| 10Y Selected | 427.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $60.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.74% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9254 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3225 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7901 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0034 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7976 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0269 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3868 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0693 |
| Safety Score | 0.1418 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.34% | 9.63% | 8.93% | 8.23% | 7.52% | 6.82% | 6.11% | 5.41% | 4.70% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 15,106.49 | 16,561.93 | 18,040.94 | 19,524.97 | 20,993.56 | 22,424.74 | 23,795.55 | 25,082.57 | 26,262.53 | 27,313.03 |
| EBITDA | 4,141.93 | 4,540.99 | 4,946.51 | 5,353.40 | 5,756.06 | 6,148.47 | 6,524.32 | 6,877.20 | 7,200.72 | 7,488.75 |
| D&A | -1,261.11 | -1,382.62 | -1,506.09 | -1,629.98 | -1,752.58 | -1,872.05 | -1,986.49 | -2,093.93 | -2,192.44 | -2,280.14 |
| EBIT | 2,880.82 | 3,158.37 | 3,440.42 | 3,723.43 | 4,003.49 | 4,276.41 | 4,537.83 | 4,783.26 | 5,008.28 | 5,208.61 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -951.48 | -1,043.15 | -1,136.31 | -1,229.78 | -1,322.28 | -1,412.42 | -1,498.76 | -1,579.83 | -1,654.15 | -1,720.31 |
| NOPAT | 1,929.34 | 2,115.22 | 2,304.11 | 2,493.64 | 2,681.21 | 2,863.99 | 3,039.07 | 3,203.44 | 3,354.14 | 3,488.30 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,201.86 | -1,317.65 | -1,435.32 | -1,553.38 | -1,670.22 | -1,784.09 | -1,893.15 | -1,995.54 | -2,089.42 | -2,172.99 |
| NWC Investment | 927.80 | 953.99 | 969.44 | 972.73 | 962.60 | 938.09 | 898.52 | 843.59 | 773.42 | 688.56 |
| (+) D&A | 1,261.11 | 1,382.62 | 1,506.09 | 1,629.98 | 1,752.58 | 1,872.05 | 1,986.49 | 2,093.93 | 2,192.44 | 2,280.14 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,916.40 | 3,134.17 | 3,344.32 | 3,542.96 | 3,726.16 | 3,890.05 | 4,030.93 | 4,145.42 | 4,230.58 | 4,284.01 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 | 132,595,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,891.11 | 3,011.11 | 2,945.07 | 2,859.81 | 2,756.87 | 2,638.10 | 2,505.68 | 2,361.96 | 2,209.46 | 2,050.79 | Raw: 54,877.19 38,872.04 |
Raw: 63,092.90 28,916.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 53,336.01 | 55,146.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 623.50 | 623.50 |
| Equity Value | 52,712.51 | 54,522.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 132.60 | 132.60 |
| Fair Value | $397.54 | $411.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% | 85.82% |
| Buy Price | $56.37 | $58.31 |
| Current Price | $285.02 | $285.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.22% | -79.54% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,888.47 | 2,998.50 | 2,906.10 | 2,796.33 | 2,671.19 | 2,532.90 | 2,383.91 | 2,226.76 | 2,064.07 | 1,898.44 | Raw: 44,899.54 30,675.76 |
Raw: 51,621.50 21,801.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 44,936.36 | 47,168.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | 623.50 | 623.50 |
| Equity Value | 44,312.86 | 46,544.70 |
| (/) Shares Out | 132.60 | 132.60 |
| Fair Value | $334.20 | $351.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% | 85.82% |
| Buy Price | $47.39 | $49.78 |
| Current Price | $285.02 | $285.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.37% | -82.54% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,893.77 | 3,023.89 | 2,984.93 | 2,925.33 | 2,846.12 | 2,748.70 | 2,634.88 | 2,506.72 | 2,366.57 | 2,216.93 | Raw: 70,360.49 51,690.52 |
Raw: 80,894.22 40,263.48 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 66,364.57 | 67,411.34 |
| (-) Net Debt | 623.50 | 623.50 |
| Equity Value | 65,741.07 | 66,787.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 132.60 | 132.60 |
| Fair Value | $495.80 | $503.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% | 85.82% |
| Buy Price | $70.30 | $71.42 |
| Current Price | $285.02 | $285.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.33% | -74.94% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 32,897.34 | 75,312.09 | 172,412.47 | 394,705.01 | 903,600.80 | 2,068,619.32 | 4,735,703.94 | 10,841,478.49 | 24,819,468.70 | 56,819,374.51 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% | 128.93% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.29 | 7.53 | 17.24 | 39.47 | 90.36 | 206.86 | 473.57 | 1,084.15 | 2,481.95 | 5,681.94 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.06 | 6.08 | 12.76 | 26.77 | 56.17 | 117.86 | 247.33 | 518.99 | 1,089.04 | 2,285.25 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $108.14 | 25.16% | $443.75 | 310.35% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $112.65 | 8.60% | $150.99 | 34.04% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $119.77 | -3.66% | $82.42 | -31.19% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $113.28 | -10.00% | $42.47 | -62.51% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $124.30 | -7.12% | $37.01 | -70.23% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $85.36 | 11.88% | $198.48 | 132.52% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $69.66 | 12.88% | $85.96 | 23.40% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $61.44 | 15.25% | $213.83 | 248.03% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $29.02 | 17.00% | $152.70 | 426.18% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $25.09 | 18.04% | $134.22 | 434.94% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $25.73 | 16.01% | $117.76 | 357.66% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $8.24 | 13.26% | $60.48 | 633.92% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $31.62 | 9.74% | $93.25 | 194.91% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $20.98 | 8.35% | $69.06 | 229.17% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $23.96 | 12.97% | $124.04 | 417.68% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $23.51 | 14.15% | $123.24 | 424.20% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $23.51 | 16.07% | $106.46 | 352.83% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $23.51 | 6.94% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $23.51 | 6.83% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $286.57 - $314.31 | 8 |
| $314.31 - $342.05 | 70 |
| $342.05 - $369.79 | 128 |
| $369.79 - $397.54 | 205 |
| $397.54 - $425.28 | 189 |
| $425.28 - $453.02 | 154 |
| $453.02 - $480.76 | 86 |
| $480.76 - $508.50 | 64 |
| $508.50 - $536.25 | 49 |
| $536.25 - $563.99 | 18 |
| $563.99 - $591.73 | 9 |
| $591.73 - $619.47 | 5 |
| $619.47 - $647.21 | 5 |
| $647.21 - $674.96 | 4 |
| $674.96 - $702.70 | 1 |
| $702.70 - $730.44 | 2 |
| $730.44 - $758.18 | 0 |
| $758.18 - $785.92 | 0 |
| $785.92 - $813.67 | 1 |
| $813.67 - $841.41 | 2 |