Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $222.76 |
| 5Y Range | 230.37 – 371.78 |
| 5Y Selected | 301.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.60% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $127.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -42.69% |
| 10Y Range | 281.83 – 443.44 |
| 10Y Selected | 362.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.60% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $153.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.98% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8920 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9491 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7983 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6403 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8522 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7959 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7623 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4441 |
| Safety Score | 0.4240 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 14.18% | 13.05% | 11.92% | 10.79% | 9.66% | 8.53% | 7.39% | 6.26% | 5.13% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,581.12 | 2,918.00 | 3,265.83 | 3,618.17 | 3,967.59 | 4,305.86 | 4,624.25 | 4,913.86 | 5,166.02 | 5,372.66 |
| EBITDA | 840.26 | 949.93 | 1,063.16 | 1,177.87 | 1,291.62 | 1,401.74 | 1,505.39 | 1,599.67 | 1,681.75 | 1,749.02 |
| D&A | -191.86 | -216.91 | -242.76 | -268.95 | -294.93 | -320.07 | -343.74 | -365.27 | -384.01 | -399.37 |
| EBIT | 648.40 | 733.02 | 820.40 | 908.91 | 996.69 | 1,081.67 | 1,161.65 | 1,234.40 | 1,297.74 | 1,349.65 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -134.81 | -152.40 | -170.57 | -188.97 | -207.22 | -224.88 | -241.51 | -256.64 | -269.81 | -280.60 |
| NOPAT | 513.59 | 580.62 | 649.84 | 719.95 | 789.47 | 856.78 | 920.14 | 977.76 | 1,027.94 | 1,069.05 |
| Capital Expenditures | -174.76 | -197.57 | -221.12 | -244.98 | -268.63 | -291.54 | -313.09 | -332.70 | -349.78 | -363.77 |
| NWC Investment | -56.96 | -59.85 | -61.79 | -62.59 | -62.07 | -60.09 | -56.56 | -51.45 | -44.80 | -36.71 |
| (+) D&A | 191.86 | 216.91 | 242.76 | 268.95 | 294.93 | 320.07 | 343.74 | 365.27 | 384.01 | 399.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 473.74 | 540.11 | 609.69 | 681.33 | 753.69 | 825.22 | 894.22 | 958.88 | 1,017.38 | 1,067.95 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 | 33,175,576.75 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 469.63 | 508.18 | 525.34 | 538.11 | 545.62 | 547.59 | 543.89 | 534.58 | 519.89 | 500.23 | Raw: 11,660.72 8,081.96 |
Raw: 16,522.73 7,409.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,668.84 | 12,642.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,211.57 | 1,211.57 |
| Equity Value | 9,457.27 | 11,430.99 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.18 | 33.18 |
| Fair Value | $285.07 | $344.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.60% | 57.60% |
| Buy Price | $120.87 | $146.09 |
| Current Price | $222.76 | $222.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.74% | -34.42% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 469.20 | 504.94 | 517.21 | 524.97 | 527.46 | 524.55 | 516.28 | 502.83 | 484.58 | 462.01 | Raw: 9,461.17 6,310.35 |
Raw: 13,406.07 5,527.30 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,854.13 | 10,561.33 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,211.57 | 1,211.57 |
| Equity Value | 7,642.56 | 9,349.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.18 | 33.18 |
| Fair Value | $230.37 | $281.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.60% | 57.60% |
| Buy Price | $97.68 | $119.49 |
| Current Price | $222.76 | $222.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.15% | -46.36% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 470.07 | 511.46 | 533.68 | 551.71 | 564.59 | 571.86 | 573.25 | 568.65 | 558.15 | 542.00 | Raw: 15,148.19 10,914.11 |
Raw: 21,464.34 10,477.48 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,545.62 | 15,922.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,211.57 | 1,211.57 |
| Equity Value | 12,334.04 | 14,711.32 |
| (/) Shares Out | 33.18 | 33.18 |
| Fair Value | $371.78 | $443.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.60% | 57.60% |
| Buy Price | $157.64 | $188.02 |
| Current Price | $222.76 | $222.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.24% | -15.60% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,417.03 | 12,748.41 | 30,002.02 | 70,606.56 | 166,165.03 | 391,051.71 | 920,298.57 | 2,165,824.73 | 5,097,037.96 | 11,995,336.29 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% | 135.34% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.54 | 1.27 | 3.00 | 7.06 | 16.62 | 39.11 | 92.03 | 216.58 | 509.70 | 1,199.53 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.52 | 1.10 | 2.37 | 5.11 | 11.03 | 23.78 | 51.31 | 110.68 | 238.74 | 515.00 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $58.42 | 14.47% | $140.74 | 140.91% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $83.71 | 16.64% | $103.04 | 23.09% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $103.05 | 16.24% | $114.49 | 11.10% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $97.14 | 12.00% | $129.61 | 33.43% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $70.11 | 10.52% | $73.95 | 5.48% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $83.56 | 9.70% | $46.20 | -44.71% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $88.66 | 8.79% | $42.11 | -52.51% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $64.47 | 10.69% | $25.99 | -59.68% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $34.75 | 14.46% | $15.90 | -54.26% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $30.26 | 18.95% | $13.77 | -54.50% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $26.54 | 19.19% | $30.47 | 14.82% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $24.25 | 13.41% | $30.92 | 27.51% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $35.55 | 0.35% | $-5.72 | -116.08% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $44.63 | -10.44% | $16.30 | -63.48% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $63.76 | -15.88% | $12.92 | -79.73% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $26.98 | -11.50% | $20.18 | -25.20% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $19.62 | 4.40% | $31.37 | 59.89% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $12.00 | 17.25% | $58.47 | 387.24% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $13.30 | 20.50% | $61.83 | 364.86% |
| 2001 | 2001-03-31 | $9.37 | 15.00% | $39.04 | 316.62% |
| 2000 | 2000-03-31 | $8.75 | 7.22% | $34.16 | 290.38% |
| 1999 | 1999-03-31 | $11.60 | 5.52% | $18.92 | 63.07% |
| 1998 | 1998-03-31 | $12.15 | 11.96% | $29.53 | 143.07% |
| 1997 | 1997-03-31 | $6.04 | 16.64% | $26.01 | 330.61% |
| 1996 | 1996-03-31 | $4.67 | 20.65% | $19.06 | 308.23% |
| $215.43 - $238.10 | 9 |
| $238.10 - $260.78 | 35 |
| $260.78 - $283.45 | 88 |
| $283.45 - $306.12 | 125 |
| $306.12 - $328.80 | 145 |
| $328.80 - $351.47 | 138 |
| $351.47 - $374.15 | 130 |
| $374.15 - $396.82 | 111 |
| $396.82 - $419.50 | 69 |
| $419.50 - $442.17 | 44 |
| $442.17 - $464.85 | 33 |
| $464.85 - $487.52 | 28 |
| $487.52 - $510.20 | 15 |
| $510.20 - $532.87 | 14 |
| $532.87 - $555.55 | 8 |
| $555.55 - $578.22 | 2 |
| $578.22 - $600.90 | 4 |
| $600.90 - $623.57 | 1 |
| $623.57 - $646.25 | 0 |
| $646.25 - $668.92 | 1 |