Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $114.39 |
| 5Y Range | 81.95 – 130.43 |
| 5Y Selected | 106.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.49% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $35.58 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.89% |
| 10Y Range | 90.73 – 139.60 |
| 10Y Selected | 115.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.49% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $38.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.26% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8265 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7425 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5392 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6264 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9474 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8588 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1652 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2675 |
| Safety Score | 0.3351 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.27% | 5.13% | 4.99% | 4.85% | 4.71% | 4.57% | 4.42% | 4.28% | 4.14% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,885.35 | 3,033.44 | 3,184.84 | 3,339.28 | 3,496.48 | 3,656.14 | 3,817.91 | 3,981.44 | 4,146.33 | 4,312.19 |
| EBITDA | 586.41 | 616.51 | 647.28 | 678.67 | 710.62 | 743.06 | 775.94 | 809.18 | 842.69 | 876.40 |
| D&A | -85.20 | -89.57 | -94.04 | -98.60 | -103.25 | -107.96 | -112.74 | -117.57 | -122.44 | -127.33 |
| EBIT | 501.21 | 526.93 | 553.23 | 580.06 | 607.37 | 635.10 | 663.20 | 691.61 | 720.25 | 749.06 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -119.33 | -125.46 | -131.72 | -138.11 | -144.61 | -151.21 | -157.90 | -164.67 | -171.49 | -178.35 |
| NOPAT | 381.88 | 401.48 | 421.51 | 441.95 | 462.76 | 483.89 | 505.30 | 526.94 | 548.77 | 570.72 |
| Capital Expenditures | -50.99 | -53.61 | -56.28 | -59.01 | -61.79 | -64.61 | -67.47 | -70.36 | -73.27 | -76.20 |
| NWC Investment | -19.82 | -20.31 | -20.76 | -21.18 | -21.56 | -21.89 | -22.18 | -22.42 | -22.61 | -22.74 |
| (+) D&A | 85.20 | 89.57 | 94.04 | 98.60 | 103.25 | 107.96 | 112.74 | 117.57 | 122.44 | 127.33 |
| Free Cash Flow | 396.27 | 417.14 | 438.52 | 460.37 | 482.66 | 505.35 | 528.39 | 551.73 | 575.32 | 599.10 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 | 60,834,387.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/3/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/16/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 392.83 | 400.76 | 386.16 | 371.60 | 357.10 | 342.71 | 328.45 | 314.36 | 300.47 | 286.80 | Raw: 7,345.38 5,203.07 |
Raw: 9,117.49 4,178.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,111.53 | 7,659.90 |
| (-) Net Debt | 979.94 | 979.94 |
| Equity Value | 6,131.59 | 6,679.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 60.83 | 60.83 |
| Fair Value | $100.79 | $109.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.49% | 66.49% |
| Buy Price | $33.78 | $36.80 |
| Current Price | $114.39 | $114.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.47% | -67.83% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 392.47 | 399.08 | 381.05 | 363.35 | 346.01 | 329.04 | 312.49 | 296.37 | 280.69 | 265.49 | Raw: 5,976.75 4,083.37 |
Raw: 7,418.67 3,133.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,965.34 | 6,499.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 979.94 | 979.94 |
| Equity Value | 4,985.39 | 5,519.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 60.83 | 60.83 |
| Fair Value | $81.95 | $90.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.49% | 66.49% |
| Buy Price | $27.46 | $30.40 |
| Current Price | $114.39 | $114.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.99% | -73.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 393.19 | 402.46 | 391.39 | 380.11 | 368.67 | 357.08 | 345.39 | 333.63 | 321.83 | 310.03 | Raw: 9,499.57 6,978.89 |
Raw: 11,791.39 5,868.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,914.71 | 9,472.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 979.94 | 979.94 |
| Equity Value | 7,934.77 | 8,492.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 60.83 | 60.83 |
| Fair Value | $130.43 | $139.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.49% | 66.49% |
| Buy Price | $43.71 | $46.78 |
| Current Price | $114.39 | $114.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.79% | -59.10% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,435.44 | 14,831.67 | 34,182.36 | 78,779.67 | 181,562.52 | 418,444.86 | 964,384.65 | 2,222,605.25 | 5,122,410.53 | 11,805,555.52 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.64 | 1.48 | 3.42 | 7.88 | 18.16 | 41.84 | 96.44 | 222.26 | 512.24 | 1,180.56 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.60 | 1.20 | 2.53 | 5.34 | 11.29 | 23.84 | 50.37 | 106.40 | 224.76 | 474.81 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $50.00 | 7.98% | $73.19 | 46.37% |
| $64.05 - $74.11 | 3 |
| $74.11 - $84.18 | 34 |
| $84.18 - $94.24 | 125 |
| $94.24 - $104.30 | 209 |
| $104.30 - $114.36 | 212 |
| $114.36 - $124.42 | 155 |
| $124.42 - $134.48 | 104 |
| $134.48 - $144.54 | 73 |
| $144.54 - $154.60 | 38 |
| $154.60 - $164.66 | 20 |
| $164.66 - $174.72 | 9 |
| $174.72 - $184.78 | 6 |
| $184.78 - $194.84 | 2 |
| $194.84 - $204.90 | 2 |
| $204.90 - $214.96 | 4 |
| $214.96 - $225.02 | 0 |
| $225.02 - $235.08 | 1 |
| $235.08 - $245.14 | 2 |
| $245.14 - $255.21 | 0 |
| $255.21 - $265.27 | 1 |