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PT Enseval Putera Megatrading Tbk.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2,330.00
5Y Range9,370.00 – 23,064.26
5Y Selected16,217.13
(-) Safety Margin62.97%
5Y Buy Price$6,527.39
Upside (to Buy Price)180.15%
10Y Range10,669.92 – 25,644.71
10Y Selected18,157.31
(-) Safety Margin62.97%
10Y Buy Price$7,308.32
Upside (to Buy Price)213.66%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9544
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9695
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0051
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5941
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0014
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6333
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1951
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4365
Safety Score0.4025

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.52%6.24%5.96%5.68%5.40%5.12%4.84%4.56%4.28%4.00%
Revenue32,975,993.4435,033,916.3537,122,143.1439,230,867.4041,349,498.5043,466,731.3445,570,630.3447,648,727.4149,688,132.8451,675,658.16
EBITDA2,024,692.002,151,046.352,279,261.322,408,734.812,538,816.582,668,812.492,797,989.722,925,582.743,050,800.133,172,832.14
D&A-185,048.57-196,596.84-208,315.16-220,148.51-232,037.45-243,918.54-255,724.81-267,386.29-278,830.65-289,983.88
EBIT1,839,643.441,954,449.512,070,946.162,188,586.312,306,779.132,424,893.952,542,264.912,658,196.452,771,969.482,882,848.26
Pro forma Taxes-439,166.43-466,573.36-494,383.87-522,467.36-550,682.78-578,879.59-606,898.81-634,574.41-661,734.73-688,204.12
NOPAT1,400,477.001,487,876.151,576,562.291,666,118.951,756,096.351,846,014.371,935,366.102,023,622.032,110,234.752,194,644.14
Capital Expenditures-252,551.61-268,312.52-284,305.52-300,455.50-316,681.36-332,896.50-349,009.53-364,924.95-380,544.04-395,765.80
NWC Investment-360,927.99-367,949.50-373,367.73-377,032.60-378,803.92-378,553.91-376,169.87-371,556.57-364,638.64-355,362.65
(+) D&A185,048.57196,596.84208,315.16220,148.51232,037.45243,918.54255,724.81267,386.29278,830.65289,983.88
Free Cash Flow972,045.971,048,210.971,127,204.201,208,779.351,292,648.531,378,482.501,465,911.521,554,526.811,643,882.721,733,499.56
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.002,708,640,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.50%Terminal Growth: 3.11%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF965,946.771,018,296.151,028,233.901,035,381.181,039,675.011,041,075.731,039,567.611,035,159.131,027,882.921,017,795.37
Raw: 39,306,906.67
30,635,006.52
Raw: 52,712,322.09
29,990,302.10

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value35,722,539.5340,239,315.88
(-) Net Debt-18.02-18.02
Equity Value35,722,557.5540,239,333.89
(/) Shares Out2,708.642,708.64
Fair Value$13,188.37$14,855.92
(-) Safety Margin62.97%62.97%
Buy Price$4,883.65$5,501.15
Current Price$2,330.00$2,330.00
Upside (to Buy Price)109.60%136.10%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.50%Terminal Growth: 2.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF965,044.401,013,927.651,014,298.551,011,847.751,006,592.12998,571.72987,849.30974,509.53958,657.87940,419.18
Raw: 27,119,260.09
20,368,234.01
Raw: 36,368,142.24
19,029,234.94

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value25,379,944.4928,900,953.03
(-) Net Debt-18.02-18.02
Equity Value25,379,962.5128,900,971.04
(/) Shares Out2,708.642,708.64
Fair Value$9,370.00$10,669.92
(-) Safety Margin62.97%62.97%
Buy Price$3,469.71$3,951.07
Current Price$2,330.00$2,330.00
Upside (to Buy Price)48.91%69.57%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.50%Terminal Growth: 3.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF966,858.501,022,724.941,042,494.911,059,691.781,074,172.881,085,815.851,094,520.421,100,209.831,102,831.931,102,359.95
Raw: 70,832,390.74
57,306,808.72
Raw: 94,989,408.01
58,810,580.93

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value62,472,751.7369,462,261.93
(-) Net Debt-18.02-18.02
Equity Value62,472,769.7569,462,279.95
(/) Shares Out2,708.642,708.64
Fair Value$23,064.26$25,644.71
(-) Safety Margin62.97%62.97%
Buy Price$8,540.69$9,496.24
Current Price$2,330.00$2,330.00
Upside (to Buy Price)266.55%307.56%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2,330.00
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH63.56%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue52,670,101.4886,148,277.56140,905,855.83230,468,452.43376,958,837.17616,561,457.431,008,460,323.251,649,457,992.092,697,886,674.324,412,717,718.42
Constant Implied Growth63.56%63.56%63.56%63.56%63.56%63.56%63.56%63.56%63.56%63.56%
Implied Free Cash Flow5,267.018,614.8314,090.5923,046.8537,695.8861,656.15100,846.03164,945.80269,788.67441,271.77
Discount Factor0.950.860.800.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF4,998.917,379.0411,333.0317,405.7426,732.4641,056.8263,056.7696,845.18148,738.83228,439.24

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$2,050.007.39%$-139.59-106.81%
20182018-12-31$2,100.007.15%$458.93-78.15%
20172017-12-31$2,990.007.60%$-304.63-110.19%
20162016-12-31$2,920.006.23%$653.77-77.61%
20152015-12-31$3,000.004.71%$10.99-99.63%
20142014-12-31$2,800.005.65%$-487.27-117.40%
20132013-12-31$4,000.005.01%$-1,112.55-127.81%
20122012-12-31$1,750.005.68%$-371.88-121.25%
20112011-12-31$750.008.08%$-447.52-159.67%
20102010-12-31$1,135.6311.58%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$16,749.30
Median
$14,797.07
10th Percentile
$10,490.19
90th Percentile
$25,097.64

Fair Value Distribution

$4,158.69 - $8,235.28
8
$8,235.28 - $12,311.87
257
$12,311.87 - $16,388.47
349
$16,388.47 - $20,465.06
195
$20,465.06 - $24,541.66
87
$24,541.66 - $28,618.25
42
$28,618.25 - $32,694.85
32
$32,694.85 - $36,771.44
5
$36,771.44 - $40,848.04
8
$40,848.04 - $44,924.63
4
$44,924.63 - $49,001.23
4
$49,001.23 - $53,077.82
3
$53,077.82 - $57,154.42
2
$57,154.42 - $61,231.01
2
$61,231.01 - $65,307.61
0
$65,307.61 - $69,384.20
0
$69,384.20 - $73,460.79
0
$73,460.79 - $77,537.39
1
$77,537.39 - $81,613.98
0
$81,613.98 - $85,690.58
1