Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $87.96 |
| 5Y Range | 25.93 – 52.07 |
| 5Y Selected | 39.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.58% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.96% |
| 10Y Range | 37.61 – 68.92 |
| 10Y Selected | 53.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.58% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $15.67 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.19% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7654 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8926 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1697 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3963 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9817 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9862 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0310 |
| Safety Score | 0.2942 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.67% | 12.59% | 11.52% | 10.44% | 9.37% | 8.30% | 7.22% | 6.15% | 5.07% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,684.17 | 4,148.09 | 4,625.88 | 5,109.02 | 5,587.75 | 6,051.32 | 6,488.36 | 6,887.27 | 7,236.73 | 7,526.20 |
| EBITDA | 953.90 | 1,074.02 | 1,197.72 | 1,322.82 | 1,446.77 | 1,566.80 | 1,679.95 | 1,783.24 | 1,873.72 | 1,948.67 |
| D&A | -332.76 | -374.66 | -417.81 | -461.45 | -504.69 | -546.56 | -586.04 | -622.07 | -653.63 | -679.78 |
| EBIT | 621.14 | 699.36 | 779.91 | 861.37 | 942.08 | 1,020.23 | 1,093.92 | 1,161.17 | 1,220.09 | 1,268.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -97.01 | -109.22 | -121.81 | -134.53 | -147.13 | -159.34 | -170.85 | -181.35 | -190.55 | -198.17 |
| NOPAT | 524.13 | 590.13 | 658.10 | 726.84 | 794.95 | 860.90 | 923.07 | 979.82 | 1,029.54 | 1,070.72 |
| Capital Expenditures | -357.82 | -402.88 | -449.29 | -496.21 | -542.71 | -587.73 | -630.18 | -668.93 | -702.87 | -730.98 |
| NWC Investment | -111.16 | -116.42 | -119.90 | -121.24 | -120.13 | -116.33 | -109.67 | -100.10 | -87.70 | -72.64 |
| (+) D&A | 332.76 | 374.66 | 417.81 | 461.45 | 504.69 | 546.56 | 586.04 | 622.07 | 653.63 | 679.78 |
| Free Cash Flow | 387.91 | 445.49 | 506.73 | 570.84 | 636.79 | 703.39 | 769.25 | 832.86 | 892.61 | 946.87 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 | 152,050,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/13/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 384.54 | 428.00 | 446.24 | 460.77 | 471.14 | 477.02 | 478.18 | 474.54 | 466.17 | 453.27 | Raw: 9,807.59 6,947.17 |
Raw: 14,583.29 6,683.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,137.86 | 11,223.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,656.51 | 3,656.51 |
| Equity Value | 5,481.35 | 7,567.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 152.05 | 152.05 |
| Fair Value | $36.05 | $49.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.58% | 70.58% |
| Buy Price | $10.61 | $14.64 |
| Current Price | $87.96 | $87.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.94% | -83.35% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 384.19 | 426.21 | 440.33 | 450.54 | 456.50 | 458.00 | 454.94 | 447.38 | 435.50 | 419.60 | Raw: 7,963.83 5,440.96 |
Raw: 11,841.73 5,001.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,598.73 | 9,374.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,656.51 | 3,656.51 |
| Equity Value | 3,942.22 | 5,717.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 152.05 | 152.05 |
| Fair Value | $25.93 | $37.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.58% | 70.58% |
| Buy Price | $7.63 | $11.06 |
| Current Price | $87.96 | $87.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.33% | -87.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 384.90 | 429.81 | 452.28 | 471.33 | 486.40 | 497.02 | 502.83 | 503.63 | 499.32 | 490.00 | Raw: 12,725.03 9,348.48 |
Raw: 18,921.34 9,417.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,573.19 | 14,135.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,656.51 | 3,656.51 |
| Equity Value | 7,916.68 | 10,478.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 152.05 | 152.05 |
| Fair Value | $52.07 | $68.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.58% | 70.58% |
| Buy Price | $15.32 | $20.28 |
| Current Price | $87.96 | $87.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.59% | -76.95% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,906.07 | 19,396.52 | 47,586.81 | 116,748.02 | 286,425.98 | 702,708.65 | 1,724,003.73 | 4,229,617.54 | 10,376,813.15 | 25,458,153.17 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% | 145.34% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.79 | 1.94 | 4.76 | 11.67 | 28.64 | 70.27 | 172.40 | 422.96 | 1,037.68 | 2,545.82 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.74 | 1.57 | 3.52 | 7.92 | 17.80 | 40.04 | 90.04 | 202.47 | 455.32 | 1,023.91 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $50.09 | 12.11% | $45.70 | -8.76% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $27.90 | 18.97% | $44.34 | 58.93% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $30.45 | 18.48% | $45.54 | 49.56% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $17.90 | 13.91% | $26.08 | 45.71% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $13.27 | 12.24% | $6.57 | -50.45% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $13.21 | 11.26% | $11.24 | -14.89% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $11.59 | 11.38% | $11.40 | -1.63% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $9.18 | 14.72% | $15.71 | 71.17% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $8.73 | 13.71% | $27.40 | 213.83% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $7.47 | 9.32% | $22.19 | 197.03% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $5.28 | 4.48% | $-1.43 | -127.00% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.19 | 7.66% | $6.52 | 197.94% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $8.63 | 6.07% | $17.92 | 107.70% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $10.82 | 2.30% | $9.24 | -14.57% |
| 2005 | 2005-08-27 | $10.34 | -3.11% | $6.36 | -38.49% |
| 2004 | 2004-08-28 | $8.20 | -6.35% | $4.83 | -41.04% |
| 2003 | 2003-08-30 | $14.72 | 2.23% | $5.05 | -65.68% |
| 2002 | 2002-08-31 | $9.03 | 8.29% | $4.80 | -46.85% |
| 2001 | 2001-08-25 | $11.75 | 12.06% | $21.19 | 80.32% |
| 2000 | 2000-08-26 | $10.88 | 2.41% | $18.28 | 68.03% |
| 1999 | 1999-08-31 | $11.19 | -14.21% | $4.78 | -57.32% |
| 1998 | 1998-08-31 | $11.19 | -12.33% | $5.26 | -52.97% |
| $23.65 - $29.34 | 8 |
| $29.34 - $35.04 | 59 |
| $35.04 - $40.73 | 131 |
| $40.73 - $46.43 | 196 |
| $46.43 - $52.12 | 186 |
| $52.12 - $57.82 | 165 |
| $57.82 - $63.51 | 95 |
| $63.51 - $69.21 | 66 |
| $69.21 - $74.90 | 35 |
| $74.90 - $80.60 | 21 |
| $80.60 - $86.30 | 14 |
| $86.30 - $91.99 | 8 |
| $91.99 - $97.69 | 6 |
| $97.69 - $103.38 | 4 |
| $103.38 - $109.08 | 2 |
| $109.08 - $114.77 | 2 |
| $114.77 - $120.47 | 1 |
| $120.47 - $126.16 | 0 |
| $126.16 - $131.86 | 0 |
| $131.86 - $137.55 | 1 |