Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $144.83 |
| 5Y Range | 313.99 – 485.30 |
| 5Y Selected | 399.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.19% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $103.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -28.78% |
| 10Y Range | 342.41 – 514.22 |
| 10Y Selected | 428.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.19% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $110.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -23.67% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6579 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9387 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8731 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5360 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8944 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6331 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0297 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0008 |
| Safety Score | 0.2581 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.04% | 4.92% | 4.81% | 4.69% | 4.58% | 4.46% | 4.35% | 4.23% | 4.12% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,799.82 | 3,986.85 | 4,178.50 | 4,374.54 | 4,574.74 | 4,778.83 | 4,986.51 | 5,197.47 | 5,411.36 | 5,627.81 |
| EBITDA | 1,264.05 | 1,326.27 | 1,390.03 | 1,455.24 | 1,521.84 | 1,589.73 | 1,658.82 | 1,729.00 | 1,800.15 | 1,872.16 |
| D&A | -98.60 | -103.45 | -108.43 | -113.51 | -118.71 | -124.01 | -129.39 | -134.87 | -140.42 | -146.04 |
| EBIT | 1,165.45 | 1,222.82 | 1,281.60 | 1,341.73 | 1,403.13 | 1,465.73 | 1,529.43 | 1,594.13 | 1,659.73 | 1,726.12 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -216.76 | -227.43 | -238.36 | -249.54 | -260.96 | -272.61 | -284.45 | -296.49 | -308.69 | -321.04 |
| NOPAT | 948.69 | 995.39 | 1,043.24 | 1,092.19 | 1,142.17 | 1,193.12 | 1,244.97 | 1,297.64 | 1,351.05 | 1,405.09 |
| Capital Expenditures | -98.47 | -103.31 | -108.28 | -113.36 | -118.55 | -123.84 | -129.22 | -134.69 | -140.23 | -145.84 |
| NWC Investment | -52.19 | -53.56 | -54.88 | -56.14 | -57.33 | -58.44 | -59.47 | -60.41 | -61.25 | -61.99 |
| (+) D&A | 98.60 | 103.45 | 108.43 | 113.51 | 118.71 | 124.01 | 129.39 | 134.87 | 140.42 | 146.04 |
| Free Cash Flow | 896.64 | 941.97 | 988.51 | 1,036.20 | 1,085.00 | 1,134.85 | 1,185.68 | 1,237.42 | 1,289.98 | 1,343.30 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 | 39,408,907.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/28/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 888.87 | 886.27 | 851.75 | 818.39 | 785.47 | 753.04 | 721.16 | 689.87 | 659.20 | 629.20 | Raw: 16,772.53 11,624.92 |
Raw: 20,765.48 9,312.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,855.67 | 16,995.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 868.83 | 868.83 |
| Equity Value | 14,986.84 | 16,126.52 |
| (/) Shares Out | 39.41 | 39.41 |
| Fair Value | $380.29 | $409.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.19% | 74.19% |
| Buy Price | $98.15 | $105.62 |
| Current Price | $144.83 | $144.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.23% | -27.08% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 888.06 | 880.63 | 838.56 | 798.40 | 759.33 | 721.37 | 684.55 | 648.90 | 614.42 | 581.13 | Raw: 13,610.72 9,077.99 |
Raw: 16,850.94 6,947.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,242.96 | 14,362.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 868.83 | 868.83 |
| Equity Value | 12,374.13 | 13,494.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 39.41 | 39.41 |
| Fair Value | $313.99 | $342.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.19% | 74.19% |
| Buy Price | $81.04 | $88.38 |
| Current Price | $144.83 | $144.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -44.04% | -38.98% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 889.69 | 892.00 | 865.27 | 839.07 | 812.77 | 786.42 | 760.09 | 733.84 | 707.70 | 681.74 | Raw: 21,783.85 15,695.04 |
Raw: 26,969.81 13,164.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,993.83 | 21,133.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 868.83 | 868.83 |
| Equity Value | 19,125.00 | 20,264.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 39.41 | 39.41 |
| Fair Value | $485.30 | $514.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.19% | 74.19% |
| Buy Price | $125.25 | $132.72 |
| Current Price | $144.83 | $144.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -13.52% | -8.36% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,127.27 | 17,730.79 | 38,682.22 | 84,390.70 | 184,110.17 | 401,662.23 | 876,282.63 | 1,911,733.79 | 4,170,716.10 | 9,099,003.67 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% | 118.16% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.81 | 1.77 | 3.87 | 8.44 | 18.41 | 40.17 | 87.63 | 191.17 | 417.07 | 909.90 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.78 | 1.53 | 3.06 | 6.11 | 12.22 | 24.43 | 48.85 | 97.69 | 195.36 | 390.65 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $49.52 | 6.24% | $49.56 | 0.08% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $66.32 | 6.42% | $42.46 | -35.98% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $69.37 | 7.21% | $66.35 | -4.35% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $78.94 | 6.03% | $85.89 | 8.80% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $55.72 | 6.82% | $109.74 | 96.96% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $64.24 | 8.57% | $57.04 | -11.21% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $69.29 | 5.24% | $50.69 | -26.84% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $45.16 | 2.94% | $68.90 | 52.58% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $34.65 | 2.84% | $52.32 | 51.01% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $39.75 | 3.68% | $2.99 | -92.48% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $24.66 | 7.52% | $36.51 | 48.04% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $12.12 | 11.01% | $74.86 | 517.69% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $23.92 | 6.76% | $-25.89 | -208.25% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $17.18 | 1.77% | $2.68 | -84.40% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $13.80 | 1.56% | $-7.26 | -152.60% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $13.10 | 5.58% | $-11.03 | -184.18% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $12.50 | 10.38% | $-22.24 | -277.92% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $12.50 | -13.71% | $4.10 | -67.17% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $12.50 | -29.16% | $3.50 | -71.98% |
| $269.30 - $295.87 | 10 |
| $295.87 - $322.44 | 38 |
| $322.44 - $349.01 | 68 |
| $349.01 - $375.58 | 162 |
| $375.58 - $402.15 | 173 |
| $402.15 - $428.72 | 146 |
| $428.72 - $455.30 | 130 |
| $455.30 - $481.87 | 99 |
| $481.87 - $508.44 | 60 |
| $508.44 - $535.01 | 39 |
| $535.01 - $561.58 | 27 |
| $561.58 - $588.15 | 21 |
| $588.15 - $614.72 | 9 |
| $614.72 - $641.29 | 5 |
| $641.29 - $667.87 | 3 |
| $667.87 - $694.44 | 3 |
| $694.44 - $721.01 | 5 |
| $721.01 - $747.58 | 1 |
| $747.58 - $774.15 | 0 |
| $774.15 - $800.72 | 0 |