Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $134.09 |
| 5Y Range | 86.76 – 137.13 |
| 5Y Selected | 111.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $16.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.00% |
| 10Y Range | 96.63 – 147.78 |
| 10Y Selected | 122.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $17.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.90% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9657 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0314 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0018 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1223 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8940 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4523 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0003 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0041 |
| Safety Score | 0.1437 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.92% | 4.82% | 4.72% | 4.61% | 4.51% | 4.41% | 4.31% | 4.20% | 4.10% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 18,902.34 | 19,812.97 | 20,747.22 | 21,704.32 | 22,683.40 | 23,683.46 | 24,703.40 | 25,742.03 | 26,798.02 | 27,869.94 |
| EBITDA | 6,226.28 | 6,526.24 | 6,833.97 | 7,149.23 | 7,471.73 | 7,801.14 | 8,137.11 | 8,479.22 | 8,827.06 | 9,180.14 |
| D&A | -1,124.01 | -1,178.16 | -1,233.72 | -1,290.63 | -1,348.85 | -1,408.32 | -1,468.97 | -1,530.73 | -1,593.52 | -1,657.26 |
| EBIT | 5,102.27 | 5,348.07 | 5,600.26 | 5,858.60 | 6,122.88 | 6,392.83 | 6,668.14 | 6,948.49 | 7,233.53 | 7,522.88 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,105.91 | -1,159.19 | -1,213.85 | -1,269.85 | -1,327.13 | -1,385.64 | -1,445.31 | -1,506.08 | -1,567.86 | -1,630.57 |
| NOPAT | 3,996.36 | 4,188.89 | 4,386.41 | 4,588.76 | 4,795.76 | 5,007.19 | 5,222.83 | 5,442.42 | 5,665.67 | 5,892.30 |
| Capital Expenditures | -591.23 | -619.71 | -648.94 | -678.87 | -709.50 | -740.78 | -772.68 | -805.16 | -838.19 | -871.72 |
| NWC Investment | -93.78 | -96.35 | -98.85 | -101.27 | -103.59 | -105.81 | -107.92 | -109.89 | -111.73 | -113.41 |
| (+) D&A | 1,124.01 | 1,178.16 | 1,233.72 | 1,290.63 | 1,348.85 | 1,408.32 | 1,468.97 | 1,530.73 | 1,593.52 | 1,657.26 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,435.36 | 4,650.99 | 4,872.34 | 5,099.25 | 5,331.52 | 5,568.92 | 5,811.20 | 6,058.09 | 6,309.28 | 6,564.43 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 | 566,675,000.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/31/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,358.79 | 4,185.88 | 4,019.41 | 3,855.80 | 3,695.24 | 3,537.90 | 3,383.95 | 3,233.53 | 3,086.77 | 2,943.77 | Raw: 76,796.90 50,959.67 |
Raw: 94,556.13 40,596.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 71,074.79 | 76,897.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,654.50 | 10,654.50 |
| Equity Value | 60,420.29 | 66,243.04 |
| (/) Shares Out | 566.68 | 566.68 |
| Fair Value | $106.62 | $116.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $15.32 | $16.80 |
| Current Price | $134.09 | $134.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.57% | -87.47% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,350.84 | 4,139.92 | 3,939.17 | 3,744.51 | 3,555.98 | 3,373.65 | 3,197.54 | 3,027.65 | 2,863.98 | 2,706.50 | Raw: 63,063.86 40,086.62 |
Raw: 77,647.33 30,510.43 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 59,817.04 | 65,410.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,654.50 | 10,654.50 |
| Equity Value | 49,162.54 | 54,755.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 566.68 | 566.68 |
| Fair Value | $86.76 | $96.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $12.47 | $13.89 |
| Current Price | $134.09 | $134.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.70% | -89.64% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,366.82 | 4,232.78 | 4,102.05 | 3,971.47 | 3,841.30 | 3,711.77 | 3,583.10 | 3,455.50 | 3,329.17 | 3,204.32 | Raw: 97,910.27 67,849.56 |
Raw: 120,551.95 56,598.48 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 88,363.99 | 94,396.76 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,654.50 | 10,654.50 |
| Equity Value | 77,709.49 | 83,742.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 566.68 | 566.68 |
| Fair Value | $137.13 | $147.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $19.71 | $21.24 |
| Current Price | $134.09 | $134.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.30% | -84.16% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 43,689.45 | 105,954.39 | 256,957.51 | 623,165.87 | 1,511,283.73 | 3,665,121.32 | 8,888,545.57 | 21,556,242.05 | 52,277,570.91 | 126,782,043.61 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 4.37 | 10.60 | 25.70 | 62.32 | 151.13 | 366.51 | 888.85 | 2,155.62 | 5,227.76 | 12,678.20 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.11 | 8.74 | 19.43 | 43.19 | 96.01 | 213.43 | 474.43 | 1,054.62 | 2,344.35 | 5,211.33 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $65.57 | 10.45% | $91.84 | 40.06% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $66.86 | 3.90% | $63.02 | -5.75% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $77.64 | -4.21% | $39.00 | -49.76% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $62.84 | -6.58% | $22.49 | -64.22% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $54.51 | -1.79% | $47.14 | -13.52% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $44.17 | 6.48% | $48.98 | 10.88% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $62.58 | 6.23% | $78.29 | 25.10% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $64.70 | 1.53% | $63.34 | -2.10% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $47.93 | -8.54% | $29.29 | -38.88% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $41.31 | -11.40% | $26.52 | -35.81% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $52.66 | -8.64% | $32.76 | -37.80% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $40.08 | -1.42% | $43.87 | 9.46% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $40.79 | 6.83% | $63.37 | 55.35% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $53.93 | 2.93% | $46.85 | -13.12% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $41.93 | 1.72% | $34.06 | -18.77% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $35.90 | 2.51% | $30.38 | -15.39% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $30.95 | 7.64% | $42.17 | 36.25% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $26.32 | 13.58% | $40.43 | 53.62% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $21.97 | 12.90% | $39.40 | 79.35% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $23.21 | 10.08% | $26.33 | 13.44% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $33.50 | 4.28% | $19.31 | -42.36% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $31.59 | -0.28% | $17.42 | -44.85% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $31.13 | -0.82% | $14.64 | -52.98% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $28.81 | 2.18% | $15.16 | -47.39% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $22.53 | 7.00% | $16.49 | -26.83% |
| $75.14 - $84.21 | 15 |
| $84.21 - $93.29 | 63 |
| $93.29 - $102.36 | 141 |
| $102.36 - $111.44 | 175 |
| $111.44 - $120.52 | 185 |
| $120.52 - $129.59 | 136 |
| $129.59 - $138.67 | 106 |
| $138.67 - $147.74 | 77 |
| $147.74 - $156.82 | 41 |
| $156.82 - $165.90 | 18 |
| $165.90 - $174.97 | 19 |
| $174.97 - $184.05 | 12 |
| $184.05 - $193.12 | 4 |
| $193.12 - $202.20 | 6 |
| $202.20 - $211.27 | 0 |
| $211.27 - $220.35 | 0 |
| $220.35 - $229.43 | 1 |
| $229.43 - $238.50 | 0 |
| $238.50 - $247.58 | 0 |
| $247.58 - $256.65 | 1 |