Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $21.15 |
| 5Y Range | 82.73 – 126.63 |
| 5Y Selected | 104.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.41% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $16.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -22.84% |
| 10Y Range | 88.55 – 130.40 |
| 10Y Selected | 109.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.41% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $17.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -19.31% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5453 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3139 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5523 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3847 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5305 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3271 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8550 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0362 |
| Safety Score | 0.1559 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 23.57% | 21.39% | 19.22% | 17.05% | 14.87% | 12.70% | 10.52% | 8.35% | 6.17% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 14,679.52 | 17,820.11 | 21,245.14 | 24,866.54 | 28,564.55 | 32,191.44 | 35,578.91 | 38,549.24 | 40,929.38 | 42,566.56 |
| EBITDA | 5,252.90 | 6,376.72 | 7,602.33 | 8,898.20 | 10,221.49 | 11,519.33 | 12,731.50 | 13,794.40 | 14,646.11 | 15,231.95 |
| D&A | -1,217.16 | -1,477.56 | -1,761.55 | -2,061.82 | -2,368.44 | -2,669.16 | -2,950.04 | -3,196.32 | -3,393.67 | -3,529.42 |
| EBIT | 4,035.74 | 4,899.16 | 5,840.78 | 6,836.38 | 7,853.05 | 8,850.17 | 9,781.46 | 10,598.08 | 11,252.43 | 11,702.53 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -920.31 | -1,117.21 | -1,331.94 | -1,558.98 | -1,790.82 | -2,018.20 | -2,230.58 | -2,416.80 | -2,566.02 | -2,668.66 |
| NOPAT | 3,115.43 | 3,781.95 | 4,508.84 | 5,277.41 | 6,062.24 | 6,831.97 | 7,550.89 | 8,181.28 | 8,686.41 | 9,033.87 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3,143.98 | -3,816.61 | -4,550.16 | -5,325.77 | -6,117.79 | -6,894.58 | -7,620.08 | -8,256.25 | -8,766.02 | -9,116.66 |
| NWC Investment | 814.28 | 913.36 | 996.09 | 1,053.20 | 1,075.48 | 1,054.79 | 985.16 | 863.85 | 692.21 | 476.13 |
| (+) D&A | 1,217.16 | 1,477.56 | 1,761.55 | 2,061.82 | 2,368.44 | 2,669.16 | 2,950.04 | 3,196.32 | 3,393.67 | 3,529.42 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,002.88 | 2,356.27 | 2,716.32 | 3,066.65 | 3,388.36 | 3,661.35 | 3,866.00 | 3,985.20 | 4,006.28 | 3,922.77 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 | 442,870,455.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,985.52 | 2,263.75 | 2,392.04 | 2,475.34 | 2,506.94 | 2,483.01 | 2,403.16 | 2,270.67 | 2,092.32 | 1,877.86 | Raw: 49,869.25 35,324.69 |
Raw: 57,734.47 26,460.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 46,948.28 | 49,211.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,689.78 | 2,689.78 |
| Equity Value | 44,258.50 | 46,521.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 442.87 | 442.87 |
| Fair Value | $99.94 | $105.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.41% | 84.41% |
| Buy Price | $15.58 | $16.38 |
| Current Price | $21.15 | $21.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -26.34% | -22.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,983.71 | 2,254.27 | 2,360.38 | 2,420.40 | 2,429.03 | 2,383.99 | 2,286.37 | 2,140.70 | 1,954.64 | 1,738.36 | Raw: 40,806.63 27,879.45 |
Raw: 47,242.52 19,952.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 39,327.24 | 41,903.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,689.78 | 2,689.78 |
| Equity Value | 36,637.46 | 39,214.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 442.87 | 442.87 |
| Fair Value | $82.73 | $88.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.41% | 84.41% |
| Buy Price | $12.90 | $13.80 |
| Current Price | $21.15 | $21.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.02% | -34.73% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,987.35 | 2,273.36 | 2,424.41 | 2,532.05 | 2,588.10 | 2,587.11 | 2,527.07 | 2,409.84 | 2,241.10 | 2,030.00 | Raw: 63,928.68 46,965.37 |
Raw: 74,011.31 36,837.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 58,770.65 | 60,438.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,689.78 | 2,689.78 |
| Equity Value | 56,080.87 | 57,748.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 442.87 | 442.87 |
| Fair Value | $126.63 | $130.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.41% | 84.41% |
| Buy Price | $19.74 | $20.33 |
| Current Price | $21.15 | $21.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.66% | -3.88% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 21,962.51 | 46,197.15 | 97,173.61 | 204,400.27 | 429,946.68 | 904,373.32 | 1,902,308.21 | 4,001,418.93 | 8,416,803.02 | 17,704,362.94 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% | 110.35% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.20 | 4.62 | 9.72 | 20.44 | 42.99 | 90.44 | 190.23 | 400.14 | 841.68 | 1,770.44 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.04 | 3.73 | 7.19 | 13.86 | 26.73 | 51.53 | 99.35 | 191.55 | 369.32 | 712.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $26.50 | 31.84% | $-115.15 | -534.54% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $22.21 | 7.19% | $-2.60 | -111.69% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $25.15 | 2.24% | $-25.36 | -200.85% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $21.13 | -0.69% | $-13.36 | -163.24% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $24.80 | 0.54% | $6.98 | -71.87% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $24.80 | -0.95% | $4.67 | -81.15% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $24.80 | -4.42% | $-2.22 | -108.96% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $24.80 | -5.59% | $-12.13 | -148.91% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $24.80 | -0.24% | $7.42 | -70.08% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $24.80 | -38.92% | $0.49 | -98.02% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $24.80 | -61.03% | $-0.91 | -103.66% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $24.80 | -62.95% | $8.86 | -64.27% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $24.80 | -46.42% | $-0.04 | -100.14% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.80 | 0.55% | $253.06 | 920.38% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $24.80 | 2.70% | $118.53 | 377.94% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $24.80 | 5.59% | $215.06 | 767.16% |
| $71.74 - $78.98 | 12 |
| $78.98 - $86.22 | 57 |
| $86.22 - $93.46 | 137 |
| $93.46 - $100.70 | 189 |
| $100.70 - $107.94 | 182 |
| $107.94 - $115.18 | 152 |
| $115.18 - $122.42 | 104 |
| $122.42 - $129.66 | 64 |
| $129.66 - $136.90 | 46 |
| $136.90 - $144.14 | 24 |
| $144.14 - $151.38 | 11 |
| $151.38 - $158.62 | 5 |
| $158.62 - $165.86 | 4 |
| $165.86 - $173.10 | 6 |
| $173.10 - $180.34 | 3 |
| $180.34 - $187.57 | 0 |
| $187.57 - $194.81 | 2 |
| $194.81 - $202.05 | 1 |
| $202.05 - $209.29 | 0 |
| $209.29 - $216.53 | 1 |