Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $351.90 |
| 5Y Range | 9,203.02 – 14,022.45 |
| 5Y Selected | 11,612.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.78% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5,948.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,590.27% |
| 10Y Range | 10,445.08 – 15,566.55 |
| 10Y Selected | 13,005.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.78% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $6,661.58 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,793.03% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9720 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9559 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4167 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8900 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6695 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9037 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8711 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3474 |
| Safety Score | 0.5122 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.54% | 11.59% | 10.64% | 9.69% | 8.75% | 7.80% | 6.85% | 5.90% | 4.95% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 198,984.05 | 222,050.58 | 245,683.72 | 269,500.58 | 293,068.67 | 315,916.52 | 337,547.51 | 357,456.19 | 375,146.76 | 390,152.63 |
| EBITDA | 156,104.73 | 174,200.63 | 192,741.04 | 211,425.57 | 229,914.94 | 247,839.28 | 264,808.98 | 280,427.52 | 294,305.93 | 306,078.17 |
| D&A | -2,003.40 | -2,235.63 | -2,473.57 | -2,713.37 | -2,950.65 | -3,180.69 | -3,398.47 | -3,598.91 | -3,777.02 | -3,928.11 |
| EBIT | 154,101.33 | 171,965.00 | 190,267.46 | 208,712.21 | 226,964.29 | 244,658.60 | 261,410.51 | 276,828.60 | 290,528.90 | 302,150.06 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -39,125.82 | -43,661.34 | -48,308.28 | -52,991.34 | -57,625.48 | -62,118.01 | -66,371.26 | -70,285.86 | -73,764.33 | -76,714.90 |
| NOPAT | 114,975.52 | 128,303.65 | 141,959.18 | 155,720.87 | 169,338.81 | 182,540.59 | 195,039.25 | 206,542.74 | 216,764.58 | 225,435.16 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,648.95 | -1,840.09 | -2,035.94 | -2,233.30 | -2,428.61 | -2,617.94 | -2,797.20 | -2,962.18 | -3,108.78 | -3,233.13 |
| NWC Investment | 3,828.89 | 3,983.00 | 4,080.83 | 4,112.56 | 4,069.60 | 3,945.24 | 3,735.11 | 3,437.72 | 3,054.71 | 2,591.13 |
| (+) D&A | 2,003.40 | 2,235.63 | 2,473.57 | 2,713.37 | 2,950.65 | 3,180.69 | 3,398.47 | 3,598.91 | 3,777.02 | 3,928.11 |
| Free Cash Flow | 119,158.85 | 132,682.19 | 146,477.65 | 160,313.49 | 173,930.45 | 187,048.57 | 199,375.64 | 210,617.19 | 220,487.53 | 228,721.27 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 | 227,475,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 118,125.76 | 127,583.66 | 129,103.21 | 129,401.93 | 128,685.48 | 126,850.30 | 123,934.56 | 120,004.45 | 115,151.82 | 109,490.52 | Raw: 2,692,432.24 1,907,173.91 |
Raw: 3,540,590.57 1,622,696.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,540,073.96 | 2,851,028.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22,615.50 | 22,615.50 |
| Equity Value | 2,517,458.46 | 2,828,412.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 227.48 | 227.48 |
| Fair Value | $11,066.97 | $12,433.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.78% | 48.78% |
| Buy Price | $5,668.50 | $6,368.67 |
| Current Price | $351.90 | $351.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,510.83% | 1,709.80% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 118,018.03 | 127,060.89 | 127,406.39 | 126,529.75 | 124,686.32 | 121,791.82 | 117,911.56 | 113,135.45 | 107,574.54 | 101,356.73 | Raw: 2,184,354.88 1,492,370.50 |
Raw: 2,872,460.88 1,213,138.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,116,071.88 | 2,398,610.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22,615.50 | 22,615.50 |
| Equity Value | 2,093,456.38 | 2,375,994.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 227.48 | 227.48 |
| Fair Value | $9,203.02 | $10,445.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.78% | 48.78% |
| Buy Price | $4,713.79 | $5,349.97 |
| Current Price | $351.90 | $351.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,239.52% | 1,420.31% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 118,234.59 | 128,113.44 | 130,838.56 | 132,366.66 | 132,851.52 | 132,168.40 | 130,324.98 | 127,359.62 | 123,340.10 | 118,361.14 | Raw: 3,498,208.28 2,569,968.11 |
Raw: 4,600,198.68 2,289,656.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,212,372.88 | 3,563,615.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22,615.50 | 22,615.50 |
| Equity Value | 3,189,757.38 | 3,541,000.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 227.48 | 227.48 |
| Fair Value | $14,022.45 | $15,566.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.78% | 48.78% |
| Buy Price | $7,182.30 | $7,973.19 |
| Current Price | $351.90 | $351.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,941.01% | 2,165.75% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 378,581.49 | 735,673.68 | 1,429,588.53 | 2,778,029.77 | 5,398,371.08 | 10,490,316.07 | 20,385,173.53 | 39,613,229.67 | 76,977,905.65 | 149,586,337.89 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 37.86 | 73.57 | 142.96 | 277.80 | 539.84 | 1,049.03 | 2,038.52 | 3,961.32 | 7,697.79 | 14,958.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 35.22 | 59.38 | 105.77 | 188.40 | 335.57 | 597.71 | 1,064.64 | 1,896.31 | 3,377.69 | 6,016.28 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $302.03 | 11.49% | $420.13 | 39.10% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $262.63 | 14.73% | $228.54 | -12.98% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $225.01 | 15.10% | $313.23 | 39.21% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $143.77 | 12.55% | $210.86 | 46.66% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $139.44 | 9.73% | $254.65 | 82.62% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $125.67 | 7.13% | $161.53 | 28.53% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $92.39 | 6.96% | $125.57 | 35.92% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $60.92 | 9.01% | $119.04 | 95.40% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $66.25 | 11.57% | $184.88 | 179.06% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $56.86 | 13.65% | $49.61 | -12.75% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $58.29 | 14.48% | $145.37 | 149.39% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $42.13 | 14.36% | $102.64 | 143.63% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $87.73 | 13.78% | $172.27 | 96.37% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $78.69 | 13.88% | $159.06 | 102.14% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $79.79 | 13.40% | $127.81 | 60.18% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $57.50 | 14.52% | $107.04 | 86.15% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $37.50 | 12.13% | $88.40 | 135.74% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $31.45 | 12.51% | $89.48 | 184.53% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $24.75 | 11.74% | $66.66 | 169.32% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $20.45 | 10.59% | $-2.90 | -114.17% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $20.45 | -0.37% | $-2.53 | -112.38% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $20.45 | -3.87% | $-1.46 | -107.16% |
| $8,522.71 - $9,586.87 | 21 |
| $9,586.87 - $10,651.04 | 116 |
| $10,651.04 - $11,715.20 | 197 |
| $11,715.20 - $12,779.37 | 213 |
| $12,779.37 - $13,843.53 | 169 |
| $13,843.53 - $14,907.70 | 133 |
| $14,907.70 - $15,971.87 | 63 |
| $15,971.87 - $17,036.03 | 38 |
| $17,036.03 - $18,100.20 | 26 |
| $18,100.20 - $19,164.36 | 12 |
| $19,164.36 - $20,228.53 | 5 |
| $20,228.53 - $21,292.70 | 2 |
| $21,292.70 - $22,356.86 | 1 |
| $22,356.86 - $23,421.03 | 1 |
| $23,421.03 - $24,485.19 | 1 |
| $24,485.19 - $25,549.36 | 0 |
| $25,549.36 - $26,613.52 | 0 |
| $26,613.52 - $27,677.69 | 0 |
| $27,677.69 - $28,741.86 | 0 |
| $28,741.86 - $29,806.02 | 1 |