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Ebro Foods, S.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$18.36
5Y Range-226.04 – -95.54
5Y Selected-160.79
(-) Safety Margin84.85%
5Y Buy Price$-30.18
Upside (to Buy Price)-264.38%
10Y Range-232.45 – -101.60
10Y Selected-167.03
(-) Safety Margin84.85%
10Y Buy Price$-31.35
Upside (to Buy Price)-270.76%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8633
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.5716
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0059
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0643
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8986
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1377
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0414
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1380
Safety Score0.1877

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth3.85%3.87%3.88%3.90%3.92%3.93%3.95%3.97%3.98%4.00%
Revenue3,261.433,387.573,519.153,656.423,799.653,949.124,105.134,267.974,437.994,615.51
EBITDA-669.36-695.25-722.26-750.43-779.82-810.50-842.52-875.94-910.83-947.27
D&A-97.38-101.15-105.08-109.18-113.45-117.92-122.58-127.44-132.51-137.81
EBIT-766.75-796.40-827.33-859.61-893.28-928.42-965.09-1,003.38-1,043.35-1,085.08
Pro forma Taxes207.41215.43223.80232.53241.63251.14261.06271.42282.23293.52
NOPAT-559.34-580.97-603.54-627.08-651.64-677.28-704.03-731.96-761.12-791.56
Capital Expenditures-150.68-156.51-162.59-168.93-175.55-182.46-189.66-197.19-205.04-213.24
NWC Investment-11.00-11.48-11.97-12.49-13.03-13.60-14.19-14.81-15.47-16.15
(+) D&A97.38101.15105.08109.18113.45117.92122.58127.44132.51137.81
Free Cash Flow-623.64-647.81-673.02-699.32-726.77-755.42-785.31-816.53-849.11-883.14
Diluted Shares Outstanding153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00153,865,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.31%Terminal Growth: 2.86%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF-619.84-630.22-615.88-601.60-588.11-575.01-562.29-549.94-537.94-526.30
Raw: -21,653.43
-16,994.21
Raw: -26,312.38
-15,208.05

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-20,049.86-21,015.17
(-) Net Debt329.13329.13
Equity Value-20,378.99-21,344.31
(/) Shares Out153.87153.87
Fair Value$-132.45$-138.72
(-) Safety Margin84.85%84.85%
Buy Price$-20.07$-21.02
Current Price$18.36$18.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-209.29%-214.47%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.31%Terminal Growth: 2.36%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-619.26-627.57-607.58-587.91-569.36-551.49-534.27-517.66-501.65-486.22
Raw: -15,021.42
-11,360.14
Raw: -18,253.43
-9,701.20

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-14,371.81-15,304.17
(-) Net Debt329.13329.13
Equity Value-14,700.94-15,633.30
(/) Shares Out153.87153.87
Fair Value$-95.54$-101.60
(-) Safety Margin84.85%84.85%
Buy Price$-14.47$-15.39
Current Price$18.36$18.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-178.84%-183.84%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.31%Terminal Growth: 3.36%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.65
PV UFCF-620.42-632.90-624.38-615.75-607.66-599.76-592.07-584.56-577.24-570.10
Raw: -38,476.63
-31,349.10
Raw: -46,755.26
-29,411.71

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-34,450.22-35,436.56
(-) Net Debt329.13329.13
Equity Value-34,779.35-35,765.70
(/) Shares Out153.87153.87
Fair Value$-226.04$-232.45
(-) Safety Margin84.85%84.85%
Buy Price$-34.24$-35.22
Current Price$18.36$18.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-286.52%-291.81%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$18.36
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH79.33%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue10,917.6919,578.4235,109.4662,960.88112,906.11202,471.58363,087.01651,114.471,167,626.602,093,874.33
Constant Implied Growth79.33%79.33%79.33%79.33%79.33%79.33%79.33%79.33%79.33%79.33%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.091.963.516.3011.2920.2536.3165.11116.76209.39
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF1.051.682.844.798.0813.6423.0038.8065.45110.41

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$19.297.54%$8.37-56.63%
20182018-12-31$17.443.83%$-3.20-118.36%
20172017-12-31$19.490.77%$7.49-61.59%
20162016-12-31$19.91-1.53%$3.35-83.15%
20152015-12-31$18.160.92%$4.15-77.15%
20142014-12-31$13.713.40%$6.87-49.88%
20132013-12-31$17.044.60%$6.43-62.27%
20122012-12-31$15.006.43%$12.31-17.90%
20112011-12-31$14.215.73%$8.11-42.90%
20102010-12-31$15.676.47%$16.595.87%
20092009-12-31$14.385.36%$16.0611.70%
20082008-12-31$9.47-0.46%$-2.25-123.76%
20072007-12-31$12.35-4.58%$4.83-60.92%
20062006-12-31$19.01-10.61%$-14.78-177.75%
20052005-12-31$13.56-8.32%$4.15-69.42%
20042004-12-31$10.401.41%$6.73-35.34%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-165.61
Median
$-139.94
10th Percentile
$-227.62
90th Percentile
$-100.26

Fair Value Distribution

$-5,576.99 - $-5,301.95
1
$-5,301.95 - $-5,026.90
0
$-5,026.90 - $-4,751.86
0
$-4,751.86 - $-4,476.81
0
$-4,476.81 - $-4,201.77
0
$-4,201.77 - $-3,926.72
0
$-3,926.72 - $-3,651.68
0
$-3,651.68 - $-3,376.64
0
$-3,376.64 - $-3,101.59
0
$-3,101.59 - $-2,826.55
0
$-2,826.55 - $-2,551.50
0
$-2,551.50 - $-2,276.46
1
$-2,276.46 - $-2,001.41
0
$-2,001.41 - $-1,726.37
0
$-1,726.37 - $-1,451.33
1
$-1,451.33 - $-1,176.28
0
$-1,176.28 - $-901.24
0
$-901.24 - $-626.19
0
$-626.19 - $-351.15
26
$-351.15 - $-76.10
971