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Ebix, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.16
5Y Range156.76 – 242.53
5Y Selected199.65
(-) Safety Margin79.32%
5Y Buy Price$41.29
Upside (to Buy Price)3,459.22%
10Y Range203.95 – 308.95
10Y Selected256.45
(-) Safety Margin79.32%
10Y Buy Price$53.03
Upside (to Buy Price)4,471.93%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8948
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8941
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7820
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0283
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5457
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6849
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0899
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1330
Safety Score0.2068

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032
% Growth22.11%20.10%18.08%16.07%14.06%12.05%10.04%8.02%6.01%4.00%
Revenue1,282.321,540.021,818.522,110.802,407.582,697.652,968.393,206.583,399.363,535.33
EBITDA272.76327.58386.82448.99512.12573.82631.41682.07723.08752.00
D&A-41.39-49.71-58.70-68.13-77.71-87.07-95.81-103.50-109.72-114.11
EBIT231.37277.87328.12380.86434.41486.74535.60578.57613.36637.89
Pro forma Taxes-22.74-27.31-32.25-37.44-42.70-47.84-52.65-56.87-60.29-62.70
NOPAT208.63250.56295.87343.42391.71438.90482.95521.70553.07575.19
Capital Expenditures-32.31-38.81-45.82-53.19-60.67-67.98-74.80-80.80-85.66-89.09
NWC Investment-16.95-18.81-20.33-21.34-21.67-21.18-19.77-17.39-14.08-9.93
(+) D&A41.3949.7158.7068.1377.7187.0795.81103.50109.72114.11
Free Cash Flow200.75242.64288.41337.02387.08436.82484.19527.01563.05590.29
Diluted Shares Outstanding30,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.0030,837,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-23Dec-24Dec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32
Period Start9/30/231/1/241/1/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/32
Period End12/31/2312/31/2412/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/32
Mid-Point11/15/237/1/247/2/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/32
Time (t)0.100.100.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.45%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.57
PV UFCF199.01240.54285.91323.79340.87352.59358.24357.40350.00336.33
Raw: 5,962.33
5,026.84
Raw: 9,092.38
4,959.90

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,416.968,104.57
(-) Net Debt558.90558.90
Equity Value5,858.067,545.67
(/) Shares Out30.8430.84
Fair Value$189.97$244.69
(-) Safety Margin79.32%79.32%
Buy Price$39.29$50.60
Current Price$1.16$1.16
Upside (to Buy Price)3,286.65%4,262.29%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.95%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.54
PV UFCF198.83240.32285.64322.43336.36344.76347.11343.15332.99317.08
Raw: 4,841.35
4,009.40
Raw: 7,382.92
3,779.58

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,392.986,848.25
(-) Net Debt558.90558.90
Equity Value4,834.086,289.35
(/) Shares Out30.8430.84
Fair Value$156.76$203.95
(-) Safety Margin79.32%79.32%
Buy Price$32.42$42.18
Current Price$1.16$1.16
Upside (to Buy Price)2,694.67%3,535.99%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.95%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.60
PV UFCF199.20240.76286.17325.16345.48360.67369.84372.38368.05356.94
Raw: 7,736.18
6,641.16
Raw: 11,797.46
6,861.48

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value8,037.9410,086.13
(-) Net Debt558.90558.90
Equity Value7,479.049,527.23
(/) Shares Out30.8430.84
Fair Value$242.53$308.95
(-) Safety Margin79.32%79.32%
Buy Price$50.16$63.89
Current Price$1.16$1.16
Upside (to Buy Price)4,223.77%5,407.87%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.16
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH102.78%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue1,491.733,024.976,134.1412,439.0025,224.2151,150.46103,724.54210,335.94426,525.96864,923.01
Constant Implied Growth102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%102.78%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.150.300.611.242.525.1210.3721.0342.6586.49
Discount Factor0.990.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.150.240.450.841.572.915.4210.0718.7234.79

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20172017-12-31$79.2520.68%$63.84-19.44%
20162016-12-31$57.0523.28%$83.6646.65%
20152015-12-31$32.7921.15%$28.13-14.22%
20142014-12-31$16.9923.71%$42.56150.48%
20132013-12-31$14.7124.67%$61.22316.21%
20122012-12-31$16.1219.80%$63.93296.57%
20112011-12-31$22.1013.97%$48.68120.27%
20102010-12-31$23.6711.23%$35.2548.92%
20092009-12-31$16.289.99%$21.5432.34%
20082008-12-31$7.9714.72%$23.42193.80%
20072007-12-31$8.1318.77%$15.4489.87%
20062006-12-31$3.1125.45%$5.8888.99%
20052005-12-31$0.2430.52%$10.344,137.25%
20042004-12-31$0.1931.20%$5.052,628.83%
20032003-12-31$0.1527.80%$6.634,281.54%
20022002-12-31$0.0119.59%$-1.88-17,670.79%
20012001-12-31$0.0416.16%$-5.56-15,750.84%
20002000-12-31$0.027.68%$-12.62-81,857.38%
19991999-12-31$0.37-3.54%$-16.92-4,714.35%
19981998-03-31$0.13-14.85%$-5.31-4,219.75%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$249.79
Median
$242.10
10th Percentile
$203.85
90th Percentile
$304.22

Fair Value Distribution

$168.98 - $185.12
17
$185.12 - $201.25
67
$201.25 - $217.39
172
$217.39 - $233.52
153
$233.52 - $249.66
172
$249.66 - $265.79
117
$265.79 - $281.93
95
$281.93 - $298.06
86
$298.06 - $314.20
48
$314.20 - $330.33
24
$330.33 - $346.47
18
$346.47 - $362.60
10
$362.60 - $378.74
7
$378.74 - $394.87
4
$394.87 - $411.01
1
$411.01 - $427.14
6
$427.14 - $443.28
2
$443.28 - $459.41
0
$459.41 - $475.55
0
$475.55 - $491.68
0