Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $204.20 |
| 5Y Range | 101.53 – 153.78 |
| 5Y Selected | 127.66 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.89% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $33.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.68% |
| 10Y Range | 110.70 – 163.34 |
| 10Y Selected | 137.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.89% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $35.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.48% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6937 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9135 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5730 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0039 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8465 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6493 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0797 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5598 |
| Safety Score | 0.2611 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.71% | 8.19% | 7.67% | 7.14% | 6.62% | 6.10% | 5.57% | 5.05% | 4.52% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 8,113.38 | 8,777.94 | 9,450.94 | 10,126.04 | 10,796.31 | 11,454.39 | 12,092.58 | 12,702.98 | 13,277.64 | 13,808.75 |
| EBITDA | 1,804.58 | 1,952.39 | 2,102.08 | 2,252.24 | 2,401.32 | 2,547.69 | 2,689.64 | 2,825.40 | 2,953.22 | 3,071.35 |
| D&A | -365.82 | -395.78 | -426.13 | -456.57 | -486.79 | -516.46 | -545.23 | -572.76 | -598.67 | -622.61 |
| EBIT | 1,438.76 | 1,556.61 | 1,675.96 | 1,795.67 | 1,914.53 | 2,031.23 | 2,144.40 | 2,252.65 | 2,354.55 | 2,448.73 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -78.48 | -84.91 | -91.42 | -97.95 | -104.43 | -110.80 | -116.97 | -122.88 | -128.44 | -133.57 |
| NOPAT | 1,360.28 | 1,471.70 | 1,584.53 | 1,697.72 | 1,810.10 | 1,920.43 | 2,027.43 | 2,129.77 | 2,226.12 | 2,315.16 |
| Capital Expenditures | -205.85 | -222.71 | -239.79 | -256.91 | -273.92 | -290.62 | -306.81 | -322.29 | -336.87 | -350.35 |
| NWC Investment | 155.15 | 158.54 | 160.55 | 161.05 | 159.90 | 156.99 | 152.25 | 145.62 | 137.09 | 126.70 |
| (+) D&A | 365.82 | 395.78 | 426.13 | 456.57 | 486.79 | 516.46 | 545.23 | 572.76 | 598.67 | 622.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,675.40 | 1,803.31 | 1,931.43 | 2,058.42 | 2,182.87 | 2,303.27 | 2,418.10 | 2,525.85 | 2,625.00 | 2,714.12 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 | 259,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,660.88 | 1,696.67 | 1,665.67 | 1,627.16 | 1,581.63 | 1,529.70 | 1,470.76 | 1,408.17 | 1,341.41 | 1,271.29 | Raw: 33,675.78 23,360.77 |
Raw: 41,871.69 18,777.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,592.78 | 34,030.41 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.50 | 56.50 |
| Equity Value | 31,536.28 | 33,973.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 259.00 | 259.00 |
| Fair Value | $121.76 | $131.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.89% | 73.89% |
| Buy Price | $31.79 | $34.25 |
| Current Price | $204.20 | $204.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.43% | -83.23% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,659.36 | 1,685.87 | 1,640.04 | 1,587.56 | 1,529.13 | 1,465.48 | 1,396.09 | 1,324.55 | 1,250.29 | 1,174.17 | Raw: 27,337.06 18,250.65 |
Raw: 33,990.27 14,014.13 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 26,352.60 | 28,726.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.50 | 56.50 |
| Equity Value | 26,296.10 | 28,670.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 259.00 | 259.00 |
| Fair Value | $101.53 | $110.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.89% | 73.89% |
| Buy Price | $26.51 | $28.90 |
| Current Price | $204.20 | $204.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.02% | -85.85% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,662.41 | 1,707.64 | 1,691.95 | 1,668.12 | 1,636.45 | 1,597.35 | 1,550.16 | 1,497.93 | 1,440.11 | 1,377.46 | Raw: 43,713.25 31,519.47 |
Raw: 54,352.04 26,531.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 39,886.04 | 42,360.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.50 | 56.50 |
| Equity Value | 39,829.54 | 42,304.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 259.00 | 259.00 |
| Fair Value | $153.78 | $163.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.89% | 73.89% |
| Buy Price | $40.15 | $42.65 |
| Current Price | $204.20 | $204.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.34% | -79.11% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 18,328.54 | 46,094.30 | 115,922.22 | 291,531.93 | 733,171.48 | 1,843,847.50 | 4,637,078.40 | 11,661,754.05 | 29,328,058.70 | 73,756,917.15 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% | 151.49% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.83 | 4.61 | 11.59 | 29.15 | 73.32 | 184.38 | 463.71 | 1,166.18 | 2,932.81 | 7,375.69 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.76 | 3.98 | 9.16 | 21.12 | 48.69 | 112.15 | 258.52 | 595.93 | 1,373.72 | 3,166.66 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $100.17 | 8.89% | $134.02 | 33.80% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $102.67 | 11.06% | $126.05 | 22.77% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $121.24 | 12.55% | $142.66 | 17.66% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $89.52 | 9.49% | $99.29 | 10.92% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $66.11 | 5.17% | $73.04 | 10.49% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $58.82 | 5.96% | $65.55 | 11.44% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $29.01 | 4.01% | $39.71 | 36.89% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $17.91 | 8.27% | $17.48 | -2.39% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $16.49 | 7.33% | $8.83 | -46.42% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $19.53 | 4.20% | $19.08 | -2.28% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $18.66 | 5.02% | $-4.90 | -126.27% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $18.19 | 1.83% | $-0.18 | -101.01% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $49.92 | -0.37% | $16.92 | -66.10% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $50.36 | -0.51% | $14.91 | -70.39% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $54.72 | 1.23% | $28.81 | -47.35% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $51.78 | 5.65% | $36.21 | -30.06% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $53.74 | 6.83% | $47.94 | -10.79% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $29.32 | 2.82% | $42.96 | 46.52% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $30.76 | 2.30% | $17.12 | -44.35% |
| 2001 | 2001-03-31 | $27.13 | 10.17% | $7.93 | -70.77% |
| 2000 | 2000-03-31 | $17.80 | 19.79% | $-11.21 | -162.98% |
| 1999 | 1999-03-31 | $11.88 | 17.51% | $-11.82 | -199.47% |
| 1998 | 1998-03-31 | $11.73 | 12.29% | $5.24 | -55.37% |
| 1997 | 1997-03-31 | $6.66 | 9.36% | $4.93 | -25.93% |
| 1996 | 1996-03-31 | $6.63 | 13.58% | $-5.77 | -187.00% |
| $89.94 - $100.48 | 22 |
| $100.48 - $111.02 | 88 |
| $111.02 - $121.56 | 186 |
| $121.56 - $132.10 | 237 |
| $132.10 - $142.65 | 180 |
| $142.65 - $153.19 | 119 |
| $153.19 - $163.73 | 67 |
| $163.73 - $174.27 | 46 |
| $174.27 - $184.81 | 21 |
| $184.81 - $195.35 | 14 |
| $195.35 - $205.90 | 8 |
| $205.90 - $216.44 | 5 |
| $216.44 - $226.98 | 2 |
| $226.98 - $237.52 | 1 |
| $237.52 - $248.06 | 1 |
| $248.06 - $258.61 | 1 |
| $258.61 - $269.15 | 1 |
| $269.15 - $279.69 | 0 |
| $279.69 - $290.23 | 0 |
| $290.23 - $300.77 | 1 |