Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $33.12 |
| 5Y Range | 9.90 – 14.17 |
| 5Y Selected | 12.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.78% |
| 10Y Range | 8.78 – 11.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.53% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4251 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2561 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1248 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2762 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1054 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0759 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2425 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0002 |
| Safety Score | 0.1437 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -10.40% | -8.80% | -7.20% | -5.60% | -4.00% | -2.40% | -0.80% | 0.80% | 2.40% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,897.60 | 2,642.56 | 2,452.25 | 2,314.89 | 2,222.27 | 2,168.92 | 2,151.55 | 2,168.76 | 2,220.80 | 2,309.63 |
| EBITDA | 371.84 | 339.11 | 314.69 | 297.06 | 285.18 | 278.33 | 276.10 | 278.31 | 284.99 | 296.39 |
| D&A | -77.97 | -71.11 | -65.99 | -62.29 | -59.80 | -58.36 | -57.89 | -58.36 | -59.76 | -62.15 |
| EBIT | 293.87 | 268.01 | 248.71 | 234.77 | 225.38 | 219.97 | 218.21 | 219.95 | 225.23 | 234.24 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -72.01 | -65.68 | -60.95 | -57.53 | -55.23 | -53.90 | -53.47 | -53.90 | -55.19 | -57.40 |
| NOPAT | 221.86 | 202.33 | 187.76 | 177.24 | 170.15 | 166.07 | 164.74 | 166.05 | 170.04 | 176.84 |
| Capital Expenditures | -62.75 | -57.23 | -53.11 | -50.13 | -48.13 | -46.97 | -46.59 | -46.97 | -48.09 | -50.02 |
| NWC Investment | 69.10 | 52.39 | 39.09 | 28.21 | 19.03 | 10.96 | 3.57 | -3.53 | -10.69 | -18.25 |
| (+) D&A | 77.97 | 71.11 | 65.99 | 62.29 | 59.80 | 58.36 | 57.89 | 58.36 | 59.76 | 62.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 306.17 | 268.60 | 239.73 | 217.61 | 200.85 | 188.42 | 179.60 | 173.91 | 171.01 | 170.72 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 | 268,600,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 303.52 | 258.05 | 211.11 | 175.65 | 148.60 | 127.78 | 111.64 | 99.09 | 89.31 | 81.73 | Raw: 2,942.94 2,084.62 |
Raw: 2,501.54 1,146.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,181.55 | 2,752.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.00 | 72.00 |
| Equity Value | 3,109.55 | 2,680.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 268.60 | 268.60 |
| Fair Value | $11.58 | $9.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $1.66 | $1.43 |
| Current Price | $33.12 | $33.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.98% | -95.67% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 303.24 | 256.97 | 208.32 | 171.76 | 143.98 | 122.68 | 106.22 | 93.42 | 83.44 | 75.65 | Raw: 2,409.90 1,646.46 |
Raw: 2,048.44 865.13 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,730.73 | 2,430.80 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.00 | 72.00 |
| Equity Value | 2,658.73 | 2,358.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 268.60 | 268.60 |
| Fair Value | $9.90 | $8.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $1.42 | $1.26 |
| Current Price | $33.12 | $33.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.71% | -96.19% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 303.80 | 259.15 | 213.97 | 179.68 | 153.41 | 133.13 | 117.40 | 105.16 | 95.66 | 88.35 | Raw: 3,768.32 2,768.41 |
Raw: 3,203.13 1,594.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,878.41 | 3,244.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.00 | 72.00 |
| Equity Value | 3,806.41 | 3,172.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 268.60 | 268.60 |
| Fair Value | $14.17 | $11.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $2.04 | $1.70 |
| Current Price | $33.12 | $33.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.85% | -94.88% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,124.79 | 18,496.00 | 42,105.94 | 95,853.72 | 218,209.96 | 496,752.64 | 1,130,852.04 | 2,574,372.52 | 5,860,531.38 | 13,341,436.74 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% | 127.65% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.81 | 1.85 | 4.21 | 9.59 | 21.82 | 49.68 | 113.09 | 257.44 | 586.05 | 1,334.14 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.76 | 1.49 | 3.12 | 6.50 | 13.56 | 28.30 | 59.06 | 123.24 | 257.15 | 536.59 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.19 | -14.42% | $0.33 | -93.61% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.58 | -14.99% | $3.35 | 29.89% |
| $7.39 - $8.08 | 15 |
| $8.08 - $8.77 | 95 |
| $8.77 - $9.45 | 223 |
| $9.45 - $10.14 | 228 |
| $10.14 - $10.83 | 185 |
| $10.83 - $11.52 | 102 |
| $11.52 - $12.20 | 72 |
| $12.20 - $12.89 | 40 |
| $12.89 - $13.58 | 20 |
| $13.58 - $14.26 | 9 |
| $14.26 - $14.95 | 2 |
| $14.95 - $15.64 | 4 |
| $15.64 - $16.32 | 0 |
| $16.32 - $17.01 | 2 |
| $17.01 - $17.70 | 2 |
| $17.70 - $18.38 | 0 |
| $18.38 - $19.07 | 0 |
| $19.07 - $19.76 | 0 |
| $19.76 - $20.44 | 0 |
| $20.44 - $21.13 | 1 |