Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $185.53 |
| 5Y Range | 435.42 – 688.47 |
| 5Y Selected | 561.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.07% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $162.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -12.38% |
| 10Y Range | 494.15 – 759.09 |
| 10Y Selected | 626.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.07% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $181.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -2.29% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9244 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7996 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7135 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4815 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8622 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5020 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6821 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4984 |
| Safety Score | 0.2893 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 11.28% | 10.47% | 9.66% | 8.85% | 8.04% | 7.24% | 6.43% | 5.62% | 4.81% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 13,438.86 | 14,845.98 | 16,280.35 | 17,721.62 | 19,147.16 | 20,532.50 | 21,852.00 | 23,079.57 | 24,189.42 | 25,157.00 |
| EBITDA | 4,370.21 | 4,827.79 | 5,294.23 | 5,762.92 | 6,226.50 | 6,677.00 | 7,106.09 | 7,505.28 | 7,866.20 | 8,180.85 |
| D&A | -549.69 | -607.25 | -665.92 | -724.87 | -783.18 | -839.84 | -893.82 | -944.03 | -989.42 | -1,029.00 |
| EBIT | 3,820.52 | 4,220.54 | 4,628.32 | 5,038.05 | 5,443.32 | 5,837.15 | 6,212.27 | 6,561.26 | 6,876.78 | 7,151.85 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -357.99 | -395.48 | -433.69 | -472.08 | -510.06 | -546.96 | -582.11 | -614.81 | -644.38 | -670.15 |
| NOPAT | 3,462.52 | 3,825.06 | 4,194.63 | 4,565.97 | 4,933.26 | 5,290.19 | 5,630.17 | 5,946.45 | 6,232.40 | 6,481.70 |
| Capital Expenditures | -675.81 | -746.57 | -818.71 | -891.19 | -962.87 | -1,032.54 | -1,098.89 | -1,160.63 | -1,216.44 | -1,265.10 |
| NWC Investment | 173.00 | 178.71 | 182.17 | 183.05 | 181.05 | 175.94 | 167.58 | 155.90 | 140.95 | 122.89 |
| (+) D&A | 549.69 | 607.25 | 665.92 | 724.87 | 783.18 | 839.84 | 893.82 | 944.03 | 989.42 | 1,029.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,509.40 | 3,864.44 | 4,224.01 | 4,582.70 | 4,934.61 | 5,273.44 | 5,592.67 | 5,885.75 | 6,146.34 | 6,368.49 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 | 117,950,000.00 |
| Metric | May-26 | May-27 | May-28 | May-29 | May-30 | May-31 | May-32 | May-33 | May-34 | May-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 8/24/25 | 6/1/26 | 6/1/27 | 6/1/28 | 6/1/29 | 6/1/30 | 6/1/31 | 6/1/32 | 6/1/33 | 6/1/34 |
| Period End | 5/31/26 | 5/31/27 | 5/31/28 | 5/31/29 | 5/31/30 | 5/31/31 | 5/31/32 | 5/31/33 | 5/31/34 | 5/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 1/11/26 | 11/30/26 | 11/30/27 | 11/30/28 | 11/30/29 | 11/30/30 | 11/30/31 | 11/30/32 | 11/30/33 | 11/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.87 | 1.87 | 2.87 | 3.87 | 4.87 | 5.88 | 6.88 | 7.88 | 8.88 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,478.97 | 3,582.50 | 3,589.28 | 3,569.34 | 3,522.92 | 3,450.85 | 3,351.63 | 3,233.12 | 3,094.71 | 2,939.16 | Raw: 75,438.71 51,562.61 |
Raw: 97,359.23 43,018.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 69,305.62 | 76,831.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,362.90 | 6,362.90 |
| Equity Value | 62,942.72 | 70,468.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 117.95 | 117.95 |
| Fair Value | $533.64 | $597.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.07% | 71.07% |
| Buy Price | $154.38 | $172.84 |
| Current Price | $185.53 | $185.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -16.79% | -6.84% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,475.80 | 3,554.18 | 3,528.56 | 3,477.08 | 3,400.69 | 3,300.87 | 3,176.55 | 3,036.40 | 2,880.01 | 2,710.41 | Raw: 61,334.96 40,283.94 |
Raw: 79,157.30 32,107.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 57,720.24 | 64,647.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,362.90 | 6,362.90 |
| Equity Value | 51,357.34 | 58,284.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 117.95 | 117.95 |
| Fair Value | $435.42 | $494.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.07% | 71.07% |
| Buy Price | $125.97 | $142.96 |
| Current Price | $185.53 | $185.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.10% | -22.95% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,482.18 | 3,611.32 | 3,651.62 | 3,664.92 | 3,650.72 | 3,609.13 | 3,538.11 | 3,444.58 | 3,327.62 | 3,189.59 | Raw: 97,682.06 69,507.49 |
Raw: 126,065.91 60,727.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 87,568.26 | 95,897.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,362.90 | 6,362.90 |
| Equity Value | 81,205.36 | 89,534.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 117.95 | 117.95 |
| Fair Value | $688.47 | $759.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.07% | 71.07% |
| Buy Price | $199.18 | $219.60 |
| Current Price | $185.53 | $185.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 7.35% | 18.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 27,735.38 | 62,215.00 | 139,558.46 | 313,052.52 | 702,228.16 | 1,575,212.97 | 3,533,461.11 | 7,926,132.99 | 17,779,616.68 | 39,882,597.17 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.77 | 6.22 | 13.96 | 31.31 | 70.22 | 157.52 | 353.35 | 792.61 | 1,777.96 | 3,988.26 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.66 | 5.29 | 10.87 | 22.35 | 45.95 | 94.40 | 194.10 | 399.08 | 820.56 | 1,687.15 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-05-31 | $78.31 | 14.75% | $6.92 | -91.16% |
| 2019 | 2019-05-31 | $116.32 | 12.46% | $158.37 | 36.15% |
| 2018 | 2018-05-31 | $87.41 | 6.13% | $86.74 | -0.76% |
| 2017 | 2017-05-31 | $88.93 | 0.68% | $67.26 | -24.37% |
| 2016 | 2016-05-31 | $67.83 | -1.12% | $60.45 | -10.87% |
| 2015 | 2015-05-31 | $58.92 | 4.90% | $366.92 | 522.74% |
| 2014 | 2014-05-31 | $44.88 | 7.06% | $-16.53 | -136.83% |
| 2013 | 2013-05-31 | $46.38 | 6.97% | $21.27 | -54.15% |
| 2012 | 2012-05-31 | $46.32 | 5.83% | $-34.58 | -174.66% |
| 2011 | 2011-05-31 | $45.35 | 7.12% | $38.32 | -15.51% |
| 2010 | 2010-05-31 | $38.60 | 0.90% | $42.45 | 9.99% |
| 2009 | 2009-05-31 | $33.66 | -3.02% | $10.69 | -68.25% |
| 2008 | 2008-05-31 | $30.67 | -4.91% | $13.16 | -57.08% |
| 2007 | 2007-05-31 | $40.80 | -2.41% | $19.91 | -51.20% |
| 2006 | 2006-05-31 | $31.71 | 7.69% | $48.80 | 53.88% |
| 2005 | 2005-05-31 | $29.08 | 10.15% | $33.81 | 16.26% |
| 2004 | 2004-05-31 | $20.03 | 11.66% | $22.03 | 10.01% |
| 2003 | 2003-05-31 | $17.74 | 10.09% | $8.13 | -54.14% |
| 2002 | 2002-05-31 | $22.50 | 8.58% | $20.74 | -7.84% |
| 2001 | 2001-05-31 | $16.66 | 9.25% | $5.54 | -66.75% |
| 2000 | 2000-05-31 | $10.26 | 10.34% | $6.24 | -39.19% |
| 1999 | 1999-05-31 | $12.69 | 11.52% | $25.31 | 99.42% |
| 1998 | 1998-05-31 | $9.36 | 12.50% | $12.68 | 35.46% |
| 1997 | 1997-05-31 | $5.00 | 13.35% | $1.95 | -61.00% |
| 1996 | 1996-05-31 | $7.09 | 12.21% | $7.08 | -0.19% |
| $372.86 - $433.61 | 20 |
| $433.61 - $494.36 | 110 |
| $494.36 - $555.11 | 216 |
| $555.11 - $615.86 | 239 |
| $615.86 - $676.61 | 192 |
| $676.61 - $737.36 | 102 |
| $737.36 - $798.11 | 60 |
| $798.11 - $858.86 | 31 |
| $858.86 - $919.61 | 16 |
| $919.61 - $980.37 | 6 |
| $980.37 - $1,041.12 | 1 |
| $1,041.12 - $1,101.87 | 3 |
| $1,101.87 - $1,162.62 | 0 |
| $1,162.62 - $1,223.37 | 1 |
| $1,223.37 - $1,284.12 | 0 |
| $1,284.12 - $1,344.87 | 0 |
| $1,344.87 - $1,405.62 | 0 |
| $1,405.62 - $1,466.37 | 1 |
| $1,466.37 - $1,527.12 | 1 |
| $1,527.12 - $1,587.87 | 1 |