Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.57 |
| 5Y Range | 72.61 – 167.29 |
| 5Y Selected | 119.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.97% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $39.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,436.00% |
| 10Y Range | 86.93 – 196.26 |
| 10Y Selected | 141.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.97% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $46.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,713.19% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7183 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8343 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9600 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3987 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9595 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4839 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0018 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6142 |
| Safety Score | 0.3291 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 19.47% | 17.75% | 16.03% | 14.31% | 12.59% | 10.87% | 9.16% | 7.44% | 5.72% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,164.00 | 1,370.61 | 1,590.33 | 1,817.95 | 2,046.89 | 2,269.49 | 2,477.29 | 2,661.54 | 2,813.74 | 2,926.29 |
| EBITDA | 1,119.95 | 1,318.73 | 1,530.14 | 1,749.14 | 1,969.42 | 2,183.59 | 2,383.52 | 2,560.80 | 2,707.24 | 2,815.53 |
| D&A | -33.79 | -39.79 | -46.17 | -52.78 | -59.42 | -65.89 | -71.92 | -77.27 | -81.69 | -84.95 |
| EBIT | 1,086.15 | 1,278.94 | 1,483.97 | 1,696.36 | 1,910.00 | 2,117.71 | 2,311.61 | 2,483.53 | 2,625.56 | 2,730.58 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2.26 | -2.66 | -3.09 | -3.53 | -3.97 | -4.41 | -4.81 | -5.17 | -5.46 | -5.68 |
| NOPAT | 1,083.89 | 1,276.28 | 1,480.88 | 1,692.83 | 1,906.02 | 2,113.30 | 2,306.80 | 2,478.36 | 2,620.09 | 2,724.90 |
| Capital Expenditures | -12.28 | -14.46 | -16.78 | -19.18 | -21.60 | -23.95 | -26.14 | -28.08 | -29.69 | -30.88 |
| NWC Investment | 24.69 | 26.89 | 28.60 | 29.63 | 29.80 | 28.98 | 27.05 | 23.98 | 19.81 | 14.65 |
| (+) D&A | 33.79 | 39.79 | 46.17 | 52.78 | 59.42 | 65.89 | 71.92 | 77.27 | 81.69 | 84.95 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,130.09 | 1,328.50 | 1,538.87 | 1,756.06 | 1,973.65 | 2,184.21 | 2,379.62 | 2,551.53 | 2,691.90 | 2,793.62 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 | 498,783,939.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,122.82 | 1,289.61 | 1,400.37 | 1,498.03 | 1,578.33 | 1,637.44 | 1,672.34 | 1,680.97 | 1,662.50 | 1,617.39 | Raw: 55,677.39 43,109.96 |
Raw: 78,809.21 44,177.02 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 49,999.11 | 59,336.80 |
| (-) Net Debt | -129.82 | -129.82 |
| Equity Value | 50,128.92 | 59,466.62 |
| (/) Shares Out | 498.78 | 498.78 |
| Fair Value | $100.50 | $119.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.97% | 69.97% |
| Buy Price | $30.18 | $35.80 |
| Current Price | $2.57 | $2.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,074.35% | 1,293.10% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,121.77 | 1,284.08 | 1,381.42 | 1,464.04 | 1,528.18 | 1,570.70 | 1,589.27 | 1,582.64 | 1,550.72 | 1,494.63 | Raw: 39,275.10 29,306.84 |
Raw: 55,592.40 28,663.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 36,086.33 | 43,230.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | -129.82 | -129.82 |
| Equity Value | 36,216.15 | 43,360.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 498.78 | 498.78 |
| Fair Value | $72.61 | $86.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.97% | 69.97% |
| Buy Price | $21.80 | $26.11 |
| Current Price | $2.57 | $2.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 748.42% | 915.79% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,123.88 | 1,295.21 | 1,419.75 | 1,533.15 | 1,630.61 | 1,707.69 | 1,760.59 | 1,786.42 | 1,783.52 | 1,751.54 | Raw: 94,946.42 76,308.97 |
Raw: 134,393.02 81,968.43 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 83,311.56 | 97,760.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | -129.82 | -129.82 |
| Equity Value | 83,441.37 | 97,890.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 498.78 | 498.78 |
| Fair Value | $167.29 | $196.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.97% | 69.97% |
| Buy Price | $50.24 | $58.94 |
| Current Price | $2.57 | $2.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,854.75% | 2,193.25% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,508.94 | 4,804.72 | 9,201.23 | 17,620.71 | 33,744.36 | 64,621.76 | 123,753.19 | 236,992.20 | 453,849.33 | 869,139.19 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% | 91.50% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.25 | 0.48 | 0.92 | 1.76 | 3.37 | 6.46 | 12.38 | 23.70 | 45.38 | 86.91 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.74 | 1.32 | 2.37 | 4.26 | 7.64 | 13.72 | 24.63 | 44.22 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.20 | 17.90% | $0.36 | -70.32% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.31 | 17.24% | $1.48 | 13.09% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.40 | 19.59% | $3.57 | 154.85% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.82 | 14.35% | $0.13 | -92.99% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $2.10 | 11.99% | $1.56 | -25.49% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.90 | 13.22% | $2.44 | -15.92% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $2.01 | 8.86% | $3.48 | 73.13% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $1.98 | -3.89% | $2.31 | 16.85% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.84 | -7.73% | $1.81 | -1.76% |
| $62.72 - $98.31 | 252 |
| $98.31 - $133.89 | 414 |
| $133.89 - $169.48 | 189 |
| $169.48 - $205.07 | 67 |
| $205.07 - $240.65 | 27 |
| $240.65 - $276.24 | 15 |
| $276.24 - $311.83 | 13 |
| $311.83 - $347.41 | 7 |
| $347.41 - $383.00 | 3 |
| $383.00 - $418.59 | 4 |
| $418.59 - $454.17 | 1 |
| $454.17 - $489.76 | 1 |
| $489.76 - $525.34 | 3 |
| $525.34 - $560.93 | 1 |
| $560.93 - $596.52 | 0 |
| $596.52 - $632.10 | 1 |
| $632.10 - $667.69 | 0 |
| $667.69 - $703.28 | 1 |
| $703.28 - $738.86 | 0 |
| $738.86 - $774.45 | 1 |