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PT Delta Djakarta Tbk

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2,020.00
5Y Range6,188.56 – 13,739.06
5Y Selected9,963.81
(-) Safety Margin85.64%
5Y Buy Price$1,804.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-10.67%
10Y Range6,372.46 – 13,604.07
10Y Selected9,988.27
(-) Safety Margin85.64%
10Y Buy Price$1,808.88
Upside (to Buy Price)-10.45%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.2060
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0957
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0303
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1942
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0126
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2060
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5211
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0067
Safety Score0.1811

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-0.51%-0.01%0.49%0.99%1.49%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%
Revenue643,467.92643,413.23646,582.45653,007.06662,767.48675,994.67692,872.99713,644.46738,614.44768,159.01
EBITDA336,235.42336,206.84337,862.88341,219.97346,320.14353,231.83362,051.37372,905.22385,952.94401,391.05
D&A-13,120.87-13,119.76-13,184.38-13,315.38-13,514.41-13,784.12-14,128.28-14,551.83-15,060.99-15,663.43
EBIT323,114.55323,087.09324,678.50327,904.58332,805.74339,447.71347,923.08358,353.38370,891.94385,727.62
Pro forma Taxes-73,437.88-73,431.64-73,793.34-74,526.57-75,640.51-77,150.10-79,076.40-81,447.01-84,296.79-87,668.66
NOPAT249,676.66249,655.45250,885.16253,378.02257,165.23262,297.60268,846.69276,906.37286,595.16298,058.96
Capital Expenditures-11,995.85-11,994.83-12,053.91-12,173.68-12,355.64-12,602.23-12,916.88-13,304.11-13,769.62-14,320.40
NWC Investment538.588.94-517.91-1,049.91-1,595.05-2,161.59-2,758.26-3,394.48-4,080.60-4,828.18
(+) D&A13,120.8713,119.7613,184.3813,315.3813,514.4113,784.1214,128.2814,551.8315,060.9915,663.43
Free Cash Flow251,340.26250,789.31251,497.71253,469.81256,728.95261,317.91267,299.83274,759.62283,805.93294,573.81
Diluted Shares Outstanding800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00800,659,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.26%Terminal Growth: 2.56%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.760.720.680.640.60
PV UFCF249,819.62243,885.29230,173.53218,319.40208,106.52199,353.91191,910.63185,651.30180,472.62176,290.43
Raw: 7,122,734.36
5,601,185.62
Raw: 8,172,709.23
4,744,855.88

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,751,489.986,828,839.13
(-) Net Debt-35.56-35.56
Equity Value6,751,525.546,828,874.69
(/) Shares Out800.66800.66
Fair Value$8,432.46$8,529.07
(-) Safety Margin85.64%85.64%
Buy Price$1,210.90$1,224.77
Current Price$2,020.00$2,020.00
Upside (to Buy Price)-40.05%-39.37%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.26%Terminal Growth: 2.06%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.640.590.55
PV UFCF249,585.72242,836.67227,047.08213,346.12201,469.82191,196.95182,342.17174,750.31168,291.88162,859.27
Raw: 5,042,063.23
3,820,601.69
Raw: 5,785,322.69
3,088,404.95

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,954,887.105,102,130.94
(-) Net Debt-35.56-35.56
Equity Value4,954,922.665,102,166.50
(/) Shares Out800.66800.66
Fair Value$6,188.56$6,372.46
(-) Safety Margin85.64%85.64%
Buy Price$888.68$915.09
Current Price$2,020.00$2,020.00
Upside (to Buy Price)-56.01%-54.70%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.26%Terminal Growth: 3.06%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.800.760.720.680.65
PV UFCF250,055.95244,948.42233,373.20223,457.29215,027.73207,941.00202,078.90197,345.18193,662.90190,972.33
Raw: 12,045,044.59
9,833,399.95
Raw: 13,820,625.92
8,733,326.26

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value11,000,262.5410,892,189.18
(-) Net Debt-35.56-35.56
Equity Value11,000,298.1010,892,224.74
(/) Shares Out800.66800.66
Fair Value$13,739.06$13,604.07
(-) Safety Margin85.64%85.64%
Buy Price$1,972.93$1,953.55
Current Price$2,020.00$2,020.00
Upside (to Buy Price)-2.33%-3.29%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2,020.00
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH109.70%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue1,359,421.632,850,769.555,978,194.5912,536,548.4426,289,717.4955,130,744.24115,611,701.08242,443,043.56508,414,190.111,066,167,892.08
Constant Implied Growth109.70%109.70%109.70%109.70%109.70%109.70%109.70%109.70%109.70%109.70%
Implied Free Cash Flow135.94285.08597.821,253.652,628.975,513.0711,561.1724,244.3050,841.42106,616.79
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.720.680.640.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF129.26245.54484.60956.391,887.503,725.117,351.7714,509.2328,634.9956,513.17

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$6,800.004.16%$6,967.062.46%
20182018-12-31$5,500.001.23%$1,000.27-81.81%
20172017-12-31$4,590.00-4.68%$979.13-78.67%
20162016-12-31$5,000.00-7.55%$4,151.50-16.97%
20152015-12-31$5,200.00-6.37%$3,939.39-24.24%
20142014-12-31$7,800.004.77%$3,440.10-55.90%
20132013-12-31$7,600.001.37%$7,201.77-5.24%
20122012-12-31$4,990.00-3.45%$4,112.48-17.59%
20112011-12-31$2,230.00-0.67%$3,404.3152.66%
20102010-12-31$2,400.006.30%$4,503.8787.66%
20092009-12-31$1,240.0013.18%$784.82-36.71%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$9,573.96
Median
$8,637.11
10th Percentile
$6,364.62
90th Percentile
$14,175.24

Fair Value Distribution

$5,051.32 - $6,166.54
71
$6,166.54 - $7,281.75
187
$7,281.75 - $8,396.97
195
$8,396.97 - $9,512.18
175
$9,512.18 - $10,627.40
124
$10,627.40 - $11,742.61
73
$11,742.61 - $12,857.82
40
$12,857.82 - $13,973.04
33
$13,973.04 - $15,088.25
23
$15,088.25 - $16,203.47
22
$16,203.47 - $17,318.68
14
$17,318.68 - $18,433.90
7
$18,433.90 - $19,549.11
6
$19,549.11 - $20,664.33
8
$20,664.33 - $21,779.54
4
$21,779.54 - $22,894.76
7
$22,894.76 - $24,009.97
3
$24,009.97 - $25,125.19
4
$25,125.19 - $26,240.40
2
$26,240.40 - $27,355.61
2