Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $519.51 |
| 5Y Range | 169.04 – 257.06 |
| 5Y Selected | 213.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $32.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.75% |
| 10Y Range | 185.14 – 273.70 |
| 10Y Selected | 229.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $34.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.27% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8683 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7851 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0153 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0847 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2609 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0672 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0230 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0366 |
| Safety Score | 0.1524 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.60% | 7.20% | 6.80% | 6.40% | 6.00% | 5.60% | 5.20% | 4.80% | 4.40% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 75.25 | 80.67 | 86.16 | 91.67 | 97.17 | 102.62 | 107.95 | 113.14 | 118.12 | 122.84 |
| EBITDA | 15.97 | 17.12 | 18.29 | 19.46 | 20.63 | 21.78 | 22.92 | 24.02 | 25.07 | 26.08 |
| D&A | -3.41 | -3.66 | -3.91 | -4.16 | -4.41 | -4.66 | -4.90 | -5.13 | -5.36 | -5.57 |
| EBIT | 12.56 | 13.46 | 14.38 | 15.30 | 16.22 | 17.13 | 18.02 | 18.88 | 19.71 | 20.50 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.97 | -1.04 | -1.11 | -1.18 | -1.25 | -1.32 | -1.39 | -1.45 | -1.52 | -1.58 |
| NOPAT | 11.59 | 12.43 | 13.27 | 14.12 | 14.97 | 15.81 | 16.63 | 17.43 | 18.20 | 18.93 |
| Capital Expenditures | -0.79 | -0.85 | -0.91 | -0.97 | -1.03 | -1.08 | -1.14 | -1.19 | -1.25 | -1.30 |
| NWC Investment | 1.11 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| (+) D&A | 3.41 | 3.66 | 3.91 | 4.16 | 4.41 | 4.66 | 4.90 | 5.13 | 5.36 | 5.57 |
| Free Cash Flow | 15.32 | 16.37 | 17.42 | 18.47 | 19.50 | 20.52 | 21.51 | 22.45 | 23.35 | 24.19 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 | 1,377,182.50 |
| Metric | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 10/1/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 |
| Period End | 9/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Mid-Point | 8/15/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.21 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.19 | 16.07 | 15.68 | 15.24 | 14.75 | 14.22 | 13.66 | 13.07 | 12.46 | 11.83 | Raw: 297.84 215.62 |
Raw: 369.39 173.02 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 292.54 | 315.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 12.68 | 12.68 |
| Equity Value | 279.86 | 302.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Fair Value | $203.21 | $219.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% | 84.76% |
| Buy Price | $30.97 | $33.48 |
| Current Price | $519.51 | $519.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.04% | -93.56% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.18 | 16.04 | 15.51 | 14.93 | 14.32 | 13.69 | 13.03 | 12.35 | 11.67 | 10.98 | Raw: 242.20 169.50 |
Raw: 300.39 129.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 245.48 | 267.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | 12.68 | 12.68 |
| Equity Value | 232.80 | 254.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Fair Value | $169.04 | $185.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% | 84.76% |
| Buy Price | $25.76 | $28.22 |
| Current Price | $519.51 | $519.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.04% | -94.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15.21 | 16.10 | 15.85 | 15.55 | 15.19 | 14.78 | 14.33 | 13.84 | 13.32 | 12.76 | Raw: 385.54 288.80 |
Raw: 478.15 242.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 366.71 | 389.62 |
| (-) Net Debt | 12.68 | 12.68 |
| Equity Value | 354.03 | 376.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Fair Value | $257.06 | $273.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% | 84.76% |
| Buy Price | $39.18 | $41.71 |
| Current Price | $519.51 | $519.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.46% | -91.97% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 204.96 | 530.69 | 1,374.09 | 3,557.83 | 9,212.05 | 23,852.15 | 61,758.78 | 159,907.89 | 414,038.86 | 1,072,043.24 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% | 158.92% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 2.39 | 6.18 | 15.99 | 41.40 | 107.20 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 1.39 | 3.30 | 7.82 | 18.57 | 44.07 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $247.56 | 9.97% | $9.25 | -96.27% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $257.70 | 7.45% | $-47.53 | -118.44% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $218.61 | 5.82% | $-61.18 | -127.99% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $219.00 | 5.58% | $-50.18 | -122.91% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $186.20 | 5.27% | $88.53 | -52.45% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $180.50 | 1.80% | $37.84 | -79.03% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $146.99 | -1.90% | $40.83 | -72.23% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $90.25 | 1.45% | $77.25 | -14.41% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $65.25 | 6.88% | $151.82 | 132.67% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $72.00 | 7.94% | $142.04 | 97.28% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $57.98 | 3.77% | $103.32 | 78.21% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $39.90 | -2.65% | $57.56 | 44.26% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $40.14 | -5.20% | $35.76 | -10.90% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $38.67 | 0.41% | $16.59 | -57.09% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $43.98 | 5.72% | $44.52 | 1.22% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $34.00 | 6.15% | $33.36 | -1.88% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $26.77 | 3.39% | $19.89 | -25.69% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $23.50 | 0.12% | $21.87 | -6.95% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $26.00 | -0.35% | $72.49 | 178.81% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $28.75 | 0.48% | $15.82 | -44.96% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $36.63 | -0.63% | $-30.45 | -183.13% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $35.00 | -0.79% | $29.55 | -15.58% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $43.00 | 0.23% | $36.58 | -14.92% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $30.00 | 1.28% | $45.46 | 51.52% |
| 1995 | 1995-09-30 | $30.50 | 2.27% | $6.96 | -77.19% |
| $144.56 - $158.48 | 6 |
| $158.48 - $172.39 | 33 |
| $172.39 - $186.30 | 84 |
| $186.30 - $200.21 | 136 |
| $200.21 - $214.12 | 170 |
| $214.12 - $228.03 | 151 |
| $228.03 - $241.94 | 133 |
| $241.94 - $255.85 | 98 |
| $255.85 - $269.76 | 64 |
| $269.76 - $283.67 | 52 |
| $283.67 - $297.59 | 24 |
| $297.59 - $311.50 | 16 |
| $311.50 - $325.41 | 13 |
| $325.41 - $339.32 | 12 |
| $339.32 - $353.23 | 3 |
| $353.23 - $367.14 | 1 |
| $367.14 - $381.05 | 2 |
| $381.05 - $394.96 | 1 |
| $394.96 - $408.87 | 0 |
| $408.87 - $422.78 | 1 |