Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $111.62 |
| 5Y Range | 110.09 – 178.75 |
| 5Y Selected | 144.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $22.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.97% |
| 10Y Range | 122.13 – 191.68 |
| 10Y Selected | 156.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $24.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.24% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8556 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9264 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6903 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0622 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9122 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0415 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8965 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0056 |
| Safety Score | 0.1548 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.51% | 7.12% | 6.73% | 6.34% | 5.95% | 5.56% | 5.17% | 4.78% | 4.39% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 101,519.28 | 108,750.28 | 116,071.83 | 123,433.21 | 130,779.63 | 138,052.80 | 145,191.58 | 152,132.75 | 158,811.90 | 165,164.38 |
| EBITDA | 26,323.52 | 28,198.48 | 30,096.93 | 32,005.70 | 33,910.60 | 35,796.50 | 37,647.56 | 39,447.37 | 41,179.25 | 42,826.42 |
| D&A | -6,088.75 | -6,522.44 | -6,961.56 | -7,403.06 | -7,843.68 | -8,279.89 | -8,708.05 | -9,124.36 | -9,524.95 | -9,905.94 |
| EBIT | 20,234.77 | 21,676.05 | 23,135.37 | 24,602.64 | 26,066.93 | 27,516.61 | 28,939.51 | 30,323.02 | 31,654.30 | 32,920.48 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -4,241.02 | -4,543.10 | -4,848.96 | -5,156.48 | -5,463.38 | -5,767.22 | -6,065.45 | -6,355.42 | -6,634.45 | -6,899.82 |
| NOPAT | 15,993.75 | 17,132.95 | 18,286.42 | 19,446.16 | 20,603.54 | 21,749.39 | 22,874.06 | 23,967.60 | 25,019.86 | 26,020.65 |
| Capital Expenditures | -6,770.30 | -7,252.53 | -7,740.80 | -8,231.73 | -8,721.66 | -9,206.71 | -9,682.79 | -10,145.70 | -10,591.13 | -11,014.77 |
| NWC Investment | 726.02 | 740.01 | 749.28 | 753.36 | 751.83 | 744.33 | 730.57 | 710.35 | 683.54 | 650.11 |
| (+) D&A | 6,088.75 | 6,522.44 | 6,961.56 | 7,403.06 | 7,843.68 | 8,279.89 | 8,708.05 | 9,124.36 | 9,524.95 | 9,905.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | 16,038.22 | 17,142.87 | 18,256.45 | 19,370.84 | 20,477.38 | 21,566.90 | 22,629.89 | 23,656.61 | 24,637.21 | 25,561.93 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 | 1,812,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 9/28/26 | 9/28/27 | 9/28/28 | 9/28/29 | 9/28/30 | 9/28/31 | 9/28/32 | 9/28/33 | 9/28/34 |
| Period End | 9/27/26 | 9/27/27 | 9/27/28 | 9/27/29 | 9/27/30 | 9/27/31 | 9/27/32 | 9/27/33 | 9/27/34 | 9/27/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/28/26 | 3/29/27 | 3/28/28 | 3/29/29 | 3/29/30 | 3/29/31 | 3/28/32 | 3/29/33 | 3/29/34 | 3/29/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 7.20 | 8.20 | 9.20 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15,761.33 | 15,441.99 | 15,073.68 | 14,660.03 | 14,205.09 | 13,713.25 | 13,189.20 | 12,637.80 | 12,064.07 | 11,473.06 | Raw: 316,238.28 210,027.19 |
Raw: 394,760.47 169,633.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 285,169.31 | 307,852.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 37,521.50 | 37,521.50 |
| Equity Value | 247,647.81 | 270,331.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,812.00 | 1,812.00 |
| Fair Value | $136.67 | $149.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.52% | 84.52% |
| Buy Price | $21.16 | $23.09 |
| Current Price | $111.62 | $111.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.05% | -79.31% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15,732.59 | 15,273.84 | 14,774.12 | 14,238.18 | 13,671.01 | 13,077.80 | 12,463.78 | 11,834.24 | 11,194.38 | 10,549.28 | Raw: 256,667.53 163,308.06 |
Raw: 320,398.26 126,017.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 236,997.80 | 258,826.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 37,521.50 | 37,521.50 |
| Equity Value | 199,476.30 | 221,304.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,812.00 | 1,812.00 |
| Fair Value | $110.09 | $122.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.52% | 84.52% |
| Buy Price | $17.04 | $18.91 |
| Current Price | $111.62 | $111.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.73% | -83.06% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15,790.38 | 15,613.57 | 15,382.16 | 15,098.44 | 14,765.23 | 14,385.86 | 13,964.10 | 13,504.09 | 13,010.28 | 12,487.37 | Raw: 410,613.16 284,767.13 |
Raw: 512,568.69 240,835.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 361,416.92 | 384,837.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 37,521.50 | 37,521.50 |
| Equity Value | 323,895.42 | 347,315.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,812.00 | 1,812.00 |
| Fair Value | $178.75 | $191.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.52% | 84.52% |
| Buy Price | $27.67 | $29.67 |
| Current Price | $111.62 | $111.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.21% | -73.42% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 214,594.41 | 487,696.72 | 1,108,361.04 | 2,518,910.11 | 5,724,586.05 | 13,009,946.38 | 29,566,977.15 | 67,195,214.49 | 152,710,803.93 | 347,057,298.85 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% | 127.26% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 21.46 | 48.77 | 110.84 | 251.89 | 572.46 | 1,300.99 | 2,956.70 | 6,719.52 | 15,271.08 | 34,705.73 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 20.19 | 40.27 | 83.88 | 174.74 | 364.00 | 758.25 | 1,579.52 | 3,290.34 | 6,854.18 | 14,278.08 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-10-03 | $122.55 | 7.85% | $17.45 | -85.76% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $130.32 | 9.20% | $-1.75 | -101.34% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $116.24 | 5.19% | $112.58 | -3.15% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $98.57 | 1.47% | $75.72 | -23.19% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $92.86 | 0.17% | $68.98 | -25.71% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $102.20 | 2.93% | $59.41 | -41.87% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $89.03 | 7.60% | $71.15 | -20.08% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $64.49 | 8.19% | $73.81 | 14.45% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $52.07 | 8.68% | $44.74 | -14.07% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $30.16 | 9.51% | $35.51 | 17.74% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $33.10 | 8.79% | $46.05 | 39.13% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $27.46 | 8.33% | $36.28 | 32.13% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $30.69 | 6.80% | $34.99 | 14.02% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $34.65 | 4.37% | $29.17 | -15.81% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $30.85 | 4.05% | $37.10 | 20.25% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $24.09 | 4.27% | $16.06 | -33.33% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $22.51 | 6.98% | $24.74 | 9.90% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $20.13 | 8.60% | $13.44 | -33.25% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $15.11 | 8.54% | $6.46 | -57.24% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $17.99 | 7.86% | $8.25 | -54.14% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $38.18 | 5.80% | $47.44 | 24.26% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $25.95 | -1.97% | $15.47 | -40.39% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $25.33 | -0.49% | $13.06 | -48.46% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $26.83 | 2.38% | $37.12 | 38.36% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $21.05 | 5.03% | $20.71 | -1.63% |
| $92.23 - $101.94 | 5 |
| $101.94 - $111.66 | 26 |
| $111.66 - $121.37 | 75 |
| $121.37 - $131.09 | 120 |
| $131.09 - $140.80 | 154 |
| $140.80 - $150.51 | 167 |
| $150.51 - $160.23 | 128 |
| $160.23 - $169.94 | 103 |
| $169.94 - $179.66 | 66 |
| $179.66 - $189.37 | 45 |
| $189.37 - $199.09 | 34 |
| $199.09 - $208.80 | 26 |
| $208.80 - $218.52 | 21 |
| $218.52 - $228.23 | 8 |
| $228.23 - $237.95 | 11 |
| $237.95 - $247.66 | 3 |
| $247.66 - $257.37 | 5 |
| $257.37 - $267.09 | 1 |
| $267.09 - $276.80 | 1 |
| $276.80 - $286.52 | 1 |