Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $224.70 |
| 5Y Range | 96.10 – 153.26 |
| 5Y Selected | 124.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.74% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $38.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.65% |
| 10Y Range | 104.59 – 160.89 |
| 10Y Selected | 132.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.74% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $41.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.53% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0176 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6683 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0137 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4480 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0121 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6660 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0626 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6124 |
| Safety Score | 0.3126 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.58% | 3.63% | 3.67% | 3.72% | 3.77% | 3.81% | 3.86% | 3.91% | 3.95% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 24,729.57 | 25,626.29 | 26,567.50 | 27,555.69 | 28,593.52 | 29,683.81 | 30,829.54 | 32,033.90 | 33,300.28 | 34,632.29 |
| EBITDA | 8,051.27 | 8,343.22 | 8,649.65 | 8,971.38 | 9,309.27 | 9,664.24 | 10,037.26 | 10,429.37 | 10,841.67 | 11,275.33 |
| D&A | -1,947.61 | -2,018.23 | -2,092.35 | -2,170.18 | -2,251.92 | -2,337.78 | -2,428.02 | -2,522.87 | -2,622.60 | -2,727.51 |
| EBIT | 6,103.67 | 6,324.99 | 6,557.30 | 6,801.20 | 7,057.36 | 7,326.46 | 7,609.24 | 7,906.50 | 8,219.06 | 8,547.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,018.03 | -1,054.94 | -1,093.69 | -1,134.37 | -1,177.09 | -1,221.97 | -1,269.14 | -1,318.72 | -1,370.85 | -1,425.69 |
| NOPAT | 5,085.64 | 5,270.05 | 5,463.61 | 5,666.83 | 5,880.26 | 6,104.48 | 6,340.10 | 6,587.78 | 6,848.21 | 7,122.14 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,044.88 | -1,082.77 | -1,122.54 | -1,164.29 | -1,208.14 | -1,254.21 | -1,302.62 | -1,353.51 | -1,407.02 | -1,463.30 |
| NWC Investment | -75.85 | -79.59 | -83.54 | -87.71 | -92.11 | -96.77 | -101.69 | -106.89 | -112.40 | -118.22 |
| (+) D&A | 1,947.61 | 2,018.23 | 2,092.35 | 2,170.18 | 2,251.92 | 2,337.78 | 2,428.02 | 2,522.87 | 2,622.60 | 2,727.51 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5,912.52 | 6,125.92 | 6,349.89 | 6,585.02 | 6,831.93 | 7,091.29 | 7,363.81 | 7,650.25 | 7,951.40 | 8,268.13 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 | 722,700,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/26/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/13/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,861.26 | 5,885.40 | 5,591.83 | 5,315.30 | 5,054.72 | 4,809.08 | 4,577.44 | 4,358.92 | 4,152.70 | 3,958.01 | Raw: 103,364.10 73,217.56 |
Raw: 125,093.24 57,331.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 100,926.05 | 106,896.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,394.50 | 15,394.50 |
| Equity Value | 85,531.55 | 91,501.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 722.70 | 722.70 |
| Fair Value | $118.35 | $126.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.74% | 68.74% |
| Buy Price | $37.00 | $39.58 |
| Current Price | $224.70 | $224.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.54% | -82.39% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,855.91 | 5,860.75 | 5,517.83 | 5,197.32 | 4,897.63 | 4,617.31 | 4,354.99 | 4,109.42 | 3,879.44 | 3,663.98 | Raw: 84,188.76 57,518.50 |
Raw: 101,886.88 43,030.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 84,847.94 | 90,984.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,394.50 | 15,394.50 |
| Equity Value | 69,453.44 | 75,590.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 722.70 | 722.70 |
| Fair Value | $96.10 | $104.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.74% | 68.74% |
| Buy Price | $30.04 | $32.70 |
| Current Price | $224.70 | $224.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.63% | -85.45% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,866.66 | 5,910.38 | 5,667.51 | 5,437.08 | 5,218.36 | 5,010.70 | 4,813.47 | 4,626.08 | 4,447.99 | 4,278.68 | Raw: 133,467.94 98,052.58 |
Raw: 161,525.50 80,396.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 126,152.57 | 131,672.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,394.50 | 15,394.50 |
| Equity Value | 110,758.07 | 116,278.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 722.70 | 722.70 |
| Fair Value | $153.26 | $160.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 68.74% | 68.74% |
| Buy Price | $47.91 | $50.30 |
| Current Price | $224.70 | $224.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.68% | -77.62% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 61,529.10 | 156,000.90 | 395,524.73 | 1,002,813.56 | 2,542,533.89 | 6,446,341.42 | 16,344,056.56 | 41,438,727.39 | 105,063,765.62 | 266,378,712.38 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% | 153.54% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.15 | 15.60 | 39.55 | 100.28 | 254.25 | 644.63 | 1,634.41 | 4,143.87 | 10,506.38 | 26,637.87 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.73 | 12.59 | 29.26 | 68.01 | 158.05 | 367.30 | 853.58 | 1,983.70 | 4,610.06 | 10,713.61 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $136.04 | -1.71% | $61.01 | -55.15% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $91.41 | 6.69% | $85.93 | -6.00% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $82.28 | 13.22% | $95.96 | 16.63% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $69.00 | 11.55% | $88.14 | 27.75% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $62.40 | 4.62% | $69.44 | 11.28% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $57.58 | 3.80% | $82.69 | 43.60% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $51.86 | -0.64% | $63.48 | 22.41% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $37.55 | -2.33% | $52.52 | 39.88% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $31.60 | -4.35% | $34.88 | 10.37% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $31.69 | -2.07% | $37.38 | 17.96% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $25.26 | 8.21% | $52.01 | 105.88% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $19.02 | 11.74% | $61.23 | 221.93% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $29.47 | 8.73% | $46.65 | 58.30% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.33 | 6.07% | $41.39 | 70.14% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $18.74 | 5.05% | $31.69 | 69.09% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $19.28 | 8.42% | $30.92 | 60.40% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $15.41 | 14.72% | $35.55 | 130.71% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $11.03 | 17.73% | $33.06 | 199.70% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $10.13 | 18.35% | $28.88 | 185.10% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $11.48 | 17.30% | $22.00 | 91.60% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $8.10 | 13.10% | $12.07 | 49.07% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $9.12 | 9.91% | $-12.49 | -236.93% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $5.30 | 9.18% | $8.14 | 53.51% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $3.92 | 14.56% | $8.27 | 111.09% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $2.67 | 17.84% | $7.15 | 167.90% |
| $82.90 - $92.09 | 16 |
| $92.09 - $101.27 | 56 |
| $101.27 - $110.46 | 125 |
| $110.46 - $119.65 | 163 |
| $119.65 - $128.84 | 190 |
| $128.84 - $138.03 | 138 |
| $138.03 - $147.22 | 106 |
| $147.22 - $156.40 | 66 |
| $156.40 - $165.59 | 55 |
| $165.59 - $174.78 | 32 |
| $174.78 - $183.97 | 24 |
| $183.97 - $193.16 | 10 |
| $193.16 - $202.35 | 11 |
| $202.35 - $211.53 | 1 |
| $211.53 - $220.72 | 1 |
| $220.72 - $229.91 | 4 |
| $229.91 - $239.10 | 1 |
| $239.10 - $248.29 | 0 |
| $248.29 - $257.47 | 0 |
| $257.47 - $266.66 | 1 |