Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $155.12 |
| 5Y Range | 32.91 – 61.04 |
| 5Y Selected | 46.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.10% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $19.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.31% |
| 10Y Range | 98.55 – 172.59 |
| 10Y Selected | 135.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.10% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $56.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.38% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5509 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9225 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1838 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6904 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1325 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6906 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4947 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5091 |
| Safety Score | 0.4190 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.03% | 12.02% | 11.02% | 10.02% | 9.01% | 8.01% | 7.01% | 6.01% | 5.00% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 38,711.64 | 43,365.77 | 48,144.56 | 52,967.16 | 57,741.68 | 62,367.52 | 66,738.52 | 70,746.60 | 74,285.92 | 77,257.36 |
| EBITDA | 5,114.96 | 5,729.91 | 6,361.33 | 6,998.54 | 7,629.40 | 8,240.61 | 8,818.15 | 9,347.74 | 9,815.39 | 10,208.00 |
| D&A | -119.54 | -133.92 | -148.67 | -163.57 | -178.31 | -192.60 | -206.09 | -218.47 | -229.40 | -238.58 |
| EBIT | 4,995.42 | 5,596.00 | 6,212.66 | 6,834.98 | 7,451.09 | 8,048.02 | 8,612.06 | 9,129.27 | 9,585.99 | 9,969.43 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,204.63 | -1,349.46 | -1,498.16 | -1,648.23 | -1,796.81 | -1,940.75 | -2,076.77 | -2,201.49 | -2,311.63 | -2,404.10 |
| NOPAT | 3,790.79 | 4,246.54 | 4,714.50 | 5,186.74 | 5,654.28 | 6,107.26 | 6,535.29 | 6,927.77 | 7,274.36 | 7,565.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -263.71 | -295.41 | -327.96 | -360.82 | -393.34 | -424.85 | -454.63 | -481.93 | -506.04 | -526.28 |
| NWC Investment | -3,737.73 | -3,899.34 | -4,003.79 | -4,040.49 | -4,000.20 | -3,875.64 | -3,662.13 | -3,358.06 | -2,965.33 | -2,489.54 |
| (+) D&A | 119.54 | 133.92 | 148.67 | 163.57 | 178.31 | 192.60 | 206.09 | 218.47 | 229.40 | 238.58 |
| Free Cash Flow | -91.11 | 185.71 | 531.42 | 949.01 | 1,439.05 | 1,999.36 | 2,624.62 | 3,306.25 | 4,032.39 | 4,788.08 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 | 308,129,000.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/31/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | -89.53 | 167.14 | 438.39 | 717.59 | 997.40 | 1,270.18 | 1,528.36 | 1,764.73 | 1,972.81 | 2,147.18 | Raw: 22,216.78 14,742.26 |
Raw: 73,920.69 31,736.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,973.24 | 42,651.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,482.93 | 3,482.93 |
| Equity Value | 13,490.32 | 39,168.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 308.13 | 308.13 |
| Fair Value | $43.78 | $127.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.10% | 58.10% |
| Buy Price | $18.34 | $53.26 |
| Current Price | $155.12 | $155.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.17% | -65.66% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | -89.37 | 165.30 | 429.64 | 696.88 | 959.81 | 1,211.21 | 1,444.17 | 1,652.37 | 1,830.43 | 1,974.12 | Raw: 18,032.72 11,462.52 |
Raw: 59,999.27 23,575.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,624.78 | 33,850.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,482.93 | 3,482.93 |
| Equity Value | 10,141.85 | 30,367.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 308.13 | 308.13 |
| Fair Value | $32.91 | $98.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.10% | 58.10% |
| Buy Price | $13.79 | $41.29 |
| Current Price | $155.12 | $155.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.11% | -73.38% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | -89.70 | 169.01 | 447.41 | 739.12 | 1,036.82 | 1,332.61 | 1,618.30 | 1,885.87 | 2,127.74 | 2,337.23 | Raw: 28,844.46 19,988.55 |
Raw: 95,972.59 45,058.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 22,291.20 | 56,663.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,482.93 | 3,482.93 |
| Equity Value | 18,808.28 | 53,180.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 308.13 | 308.13 |
| Fair Value | $61.04 | $172.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.10% | 58.10% |
| Buy Price | $25.58 | $72.32 |
| Current Price | $155.12 | $155.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.51% | -53.38% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 73,800.16 | 159,018.99 | 342,642.06 | 738,299.10 | 1,590,830.89 | 3,427,801.69 | 7,385,966.98 | 15,914,721.21 | 34,291,833.66 | 73,889,441.15 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% | 115.47% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 7.38 | 15.90 | 34.26 | 73.83 | 159.08 | 342.78 | 738.60 | 1,591.47 | 3,429.18 | 7,388.94 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 6.94 | 13.12 | 25.91 | 51.17 | 101.06 | 199.61 | 394.23 | 778.62 | 1,537.79 | 3,037.20 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $75.63 | 8.94% | $65.08 | -13.94% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $52.71 | 16.99% | $49.85 | -5.42% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $42.22 | 21.19% | $41.16 | -2.51% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $39.93 | 20.93% | $21.56 | -46.01% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $30.20 | 16.93% | $38.56 | 27.67% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $29.36 | 12.83% | $39.02 | 32.91% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $20.52 | 12.01% | $-64.97 | -416.63% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $19.43 | 14.29% | $-118.06 | -707.63% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $20.70 | 16.52% | $-35.04 | -269.28% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $9.04 | 21.65% | $-3.22 | -135.57% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $11.12 | 24.44% | $85.95 | 672.91% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $11.41 | 15.97% | $101.30 | 787.80% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $13.02 | 10.31% | $131.43 | 909.48% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $13.46 | -8.71% | $29.25 | 117.29% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $23.95 | -27.13% | $-33.98 | -241.89% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $36.22 | -36.28% | $-17.52 | -148.37% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $24.83 | -35.21% | $-13.66 | -155.01% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $16.35 | -12.24% | $1.77 | -89.20% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $9.31 | 16.18% | $-24.72 | -365.51% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $6.79 | 21.63% | $-21.62 | -418.35% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $5.16 | 19.63% | $-24.23 | -569.57% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $3.56 | 14.93% | $-25.73 | -822.84% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $4.41 | 12.15% | $-20.89 | -573.63% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $4.34 | 21.28% | $-27.88 | -742.44% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $2.69 | 27.24% | $-11.78 | -538.00% |
| $64.55 - $75.79 | 5 |
| $75.79 - $87.02 | 26 |
| $87.02 - $98.25 | 73 |
| $98.25 - $109.49 | 131 |
| $109.49 - $120.72 | 175 |
| $120.72 - $131.95 | 155 |
| $131.95 - $143.19 | 138 |
| $143.19 - $154.42 | 88 |
| $154.42 - $165.65 | 80 |
| $165.65 - $176.89 | 44 |
| $176.89 - $188.12 | 35 |
| $188.12 - $199.35 | 17 |
| $199.35 - $210.59 | 11 |
| $210.59 - $221.82 | 4 |
| $221.82 - $233.05 | 5 |
| $233.05 - $244.29 | 5 |
| $244.29 - $255.52 | 1 |
| $255.52 - $266.76 | 5 |
| $266.76 - $277.99 | 0 |
| $277.99 - $289.22 | 2 |