Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $178.66 |
| 5Y Range | 123.00 – 210.87 |
| 5Y Selected | 166.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.89% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $26.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.95% |
| 10Y Range | 141.55 – 231.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 186.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.89% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $30.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.17% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0315 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6704 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5238 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1283 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4262 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1826 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7632 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1916 |
| Safety Score | 0.1611 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.06% | 6.72% | 6.38% | 6.04% | 5.70% | 5.36% | 5.02% | 4.68% | 4.34% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10,568.64 | 11,278.55 | 11,997.84 | 12,722.25 | 13,447.19 | 14,167.77 | 14,878.84 | 15,575.06 | 16,250.97 | 16,901.01 |
| EBITDA | 2,185.81 | 2,332.63 | 2,481.40 | 2,631.22 | 2,781.15 | 2,930.18 | 3,077.25 | 3,221.24 | 3,361.03 | 3,495.47 |
| D&A | -436.17 | -465.47 | -495.15 | -525.05 | -554.97 | -584.71 | -614.05 | -642.78 | -670.68 | -697.51 |
| EBIT | 1,749.64 | 1,867.17 | 1,986.25 | 2,106.17 | 2,226.19 | 2,345.48 | 2,463.19 | 2,578.45 | 2,690.35 | 2,797.96 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -428.14 | -456.90 | -486.04 | -515.38 | -544.75 | -573.94 | -602.75 | -630.95 | -658.33 | -684.67 |
| NOPAT | 1,321.50 | 1,410.27 | 1,500.21 | 1,590.79 | 1,681.43 | 1,771.53 | 1,860.45 | 1,947.50 | 2,032.02 | 2,113.30 |
| Capital Expenditures | -442.23 | -471.93 | -502.03 | -532.34 | -562.68 | -592.83 | -622.58 | -651.71 | -680.00 | -707.20 |
| NWC Investment | -30.03 | -30.60 | -31.01 | -31.23 | -31.25 | -31.06 | -30.65 | -30.01 | -29.14 | -28.02 |
| (+) D&A | 436.17 | 465.47 | 495.15 | 525.05 | 554.97 | 584.71 | 614.05 | 642.78 | 670.68 | 697.51 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,285.41 | 1,373.20 | 1,462.32 | 1,552.26 | 1,642.47 | 1,732.35 | 1,821.26 | 1,908.56 | 1,993.56 | 2,075.58 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 | 113,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,274.27 | 1,320.43 | 1,288.87 | 1,252.96 | 1,215.21 | 1,174.82 | 1,132.12 | 1,087.45 | 1,041.16 | 993.60 | Raw: 24,854.01 17,605.24 |
Raw: 31,407.90 14,394.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,956.98 | 26,175.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,193.25 | 6,193.25 |
| Equity Value | 17,763.73 | 19,982.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| Fair Value | $157.20 | $176.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.89% | 83.89% |
| Buy Price | $25.33 | $28.49 |
| Current Price | $178.66 | $178.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.82% | -84.05% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,273.10 | 1,315.02 | 1,271.93 | 1,225.15 | 1,177.45 | 1,127.97 | 1,077.10 | 1,025.20 | 972.65 | 919.79 | Raw: 20,242.71 13,830.00 |
Raw: 25,580.62 10,803.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,092.64 | 22,188.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,193.25 | 6,193.25 |
| Equity Value | 13,899.39 | 15,995.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| Fair Value | $123.00 | $141.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.89% | 83.89% |
| Buy Price | $19.82 | $22.80 |
| Current Price | $178.66 | $178.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.91% | -87.24% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,275.44 | 1,325.91 | 1,306.19 | 1,281.66 | 1,254.55 | 1,224.08 | 1,190.50 | 1,154.10 | 1,115.19 | 1,074.10 | Raw: 32,093.93 23,577.90 |
Raw: 40,556.95 20,186.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 30,021.66 | 32,388.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,193.25 | 6,193.25 |
| Equity Value | 23,828.41 | 26,194.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| Fair Value | $210.87 | $231.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.89% | 83.89% |
| Buy Price | $33.97 | $37.35 |
| Current Price | $178.66 | $178.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.99% | -79.10% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 24,616.47 | 55,849.81 | 126,711.99 | 287,484.01 | 652,243.39 | 1,479,809.03 | 3,357,388.99 | 7,617,240.22 | 17,281,985.68 | 39,209,348.85 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% | 126.88% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.46 | 5.58 | 12.67 | 28.75 | 65.22 | 147.98 | 335.74 | 761.72 | 1,728.20 | 3,920.93 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.29 | 4.51 | 9.38 | 19.50 | 40.54 | 84.32 | 175.34 | 364.64 | 758.31 | 1,576.98 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $106.79 | 4.23% | $82.38 | -22.86% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $83.27 | 9.10% | $105.34 | 26.51% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $98.49 | 12.65% | $146.45 | 48.70% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $91.90 | 10.96% | $109.15 | 18.77% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $71.14 | 5.67% | $48.74 | -31.48% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $67.06 | 2.36% | $47.92 | -28.55% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $53.54 | 2.32% | $25.47 | -52.43% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $58.27 | 4.05% | $94.50 | 62.18% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $58.06 | 3.87% | $58.11 | 0.09% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $53.97 | 2.86% | $74.18 | 37.45% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $60.38 | 3.95% | $66.09 | 9.45% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $51.91 | 4.22% | $64.65 | 24.55% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $52.90 | 6.08% | $54.34 | 2.71% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $53.00 | 7.38% | $72.59 | 36.97% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $51.48 | 6.97% | $55.83 | 8.44% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $47.78 | 9.31% | $63.57 | 33.05% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $36.56 | 10.29% | $50.58 | 38.34% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $28.45 | 10.67% | $50.56 | 77.73% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $35.86 | 9.78% | $35.14 | -2.00% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $35.50 | 8.43% | $25.81 | -27.29% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $7.64 | 7.13% | $-137.07 | -1,894.15% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $4.45 | 7.98% | $15.74 | 253.60% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $4.22 | 12.96% | $26.12 | 518.90% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $3.78 | 12.24% | $-38.48 | -1,118.05% |
| $100.78 - $113.73 | 6 |
| $113.73 - $126.69 | 27 |
| $126.69 - $139.64 | 70 |
| $139.64 - $152.59 | 125 |
| $152.59 - $165.55 | 149 |
| $165.55 - $178.50 | 158 |
| $178.50 - $191.46 | 150 |
| $191.46 - $204.41 | 88 |
| $204.41 - $217.37 | 75 |
| $217.37 - $230.32 | 45 |
| $230.32 - $243.27 | 43 |
| $243.27 - $256.23 | 23 |
| $256.23 - $269.18 | 15 |
| $269.18 - $282.14 | 9 |
| $282.14 - $295.09 | 5 |
| $295.09 - $308.05 | 4 |
| $308.05 - $321.00 | 3 |
| $321.00 - $333.95 | 2 |
| $333.95 - $346.91 | 2 |
| $346.91 - $359.86 | 1 |