Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $9.24 |
| 5Y Range | 8.75 – 13.92 |
| 5Y Selected | 11.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.57% |
| 10Y Range | 10.74 – 16.56 |
| 10Y Selected | 13.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.94 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.01% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0459 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0003 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1241 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0869 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4153 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3081 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3782 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0647 |
| Safety Score | 0.1421 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 15.20% | 13.96% | 12.71% | 11.47% | 10.22% | 8.98% | 7.73% | 6.49% | 5.24% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 16.36 | 18.64 | 21.01 | 23.42 | 25.82 | 28.13 | 30.31 | 32.28 | 33.97 | 35.33 |
| EBITDA | 9.01 | 10.26 | 11.57 | 12.90 | 14.21 | 15.49 | 16.69 | 17.77 | 18.70 | 19.45 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 9.01 | 10.26 | 11.57 | 12.90 | 14.21 | 15.49 | 16.69 | 17.77 | 18.70 | 19.45 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.17 | -0.19 | -0.21 | -0.24 | -0.26 | -0.29 | -0.31 | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.36 |
| NOPAT | 8.84 | 10.07 | 11.35 | 12.66 | 13.95 | 15.20 | 16.38 | 17.44 | 18.36 | 19.09 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 8.84 | 10.07 | 11.35 | 12.65 | 13.95 | 15.20 | 16.38 | 17.44 | 18.36 | 19.09 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 | 15,000,863.50 |
| Metric | Aug-25 | Aug-26 | Aug-27 | Aug-28 | Aug-29 | Aug-30 | Aug-31 | Aug-32 | Aug-33 | Aug-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 8/31/24 | 9/1/25 | 9/1/26 | 9/1/27 | 9/1/28 | 9/1/29 | 9/1/30 | 9/1/31 | 9/1/32 | 9/1/33 |
| Period End | 8/31/25 | 8/31/26 | 8/31/27 | 8/31/28 | 8/31/29 | 8/31/30 | 8/31/31 | 8/31/32 | 8/31/33 | 8/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 3/1/25 | 3/2/26 | 3/2/27 | 3/1/28 | 3/2/29 | 3/2/30 | 3/2/31 | 3/1/32 | 3/2/33 | 3/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1.12 | 2.12 | 3.13 | 4.13 | 5.13 | 6.13 | 7.13 | 8.13 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8.76 | 9.97 | 10.30 | 10.52 | 10.62 | 10.61 | 10.48 | 10.23 | 9.87 | 9.40 | Raw: 200.44 146.12 |
Raw: 274.33 129.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 196.29 | 230.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34.47 | 34.47 |
| Equity Value | 161.81 | 195.67 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| Fair Value | $10.79 | $13.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% | 85.79% |
| Buy Price | $1.53 | $1.85 |
| Current Price | $9.24 | $9.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.41% | -79.94% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8.75 | 9.96 | 10.19 | 10.32 | 10.32 | 10.22 | 10.00 | 9.67 | 9.24 | 8.73 | Raw: 164.66 116.13 |
Raw: 225.36 98.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 165.67 | 195.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34.47 | 34.47 |
| Equity Value | 131.20 | 161.18 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| Fair Value | $8.75 | $10.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% | 85.79% |
| Buy Price | $1.24 | $1.53 |
| Current Price | $9.24 | $9.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.55% | -83.48% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8.77 | 9.98 | 10.40 | 10.73 | 10.93 | 11.02 | 10.98 | 10.82 | 10.54 | 10.14 | Raw: 255.40 192.51 |
Raw: 349.55 178.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 243.32 | 282.82 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34.47 | 34.47 |
| Equity Value | 208.85 | 248.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| Fair Value | $13.92 | $16.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.79% | 85.79% |
| Buy Price | $1.98 | $2.35 |
| Current Price | $9.24 | $9.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.59% | -74.54% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 45.85 | 119.41 | 311.02 | 810.07 | 2,109.93 | 5,495.56 | 14,313.81 | 37,281.96 | 97,105.12 | 252,921.38 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% | 160.46% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.55 | 1.43 | 3.73 | 9.71 | 25.29 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.77 | 1.84 | 4.39 | 10.47 |
| $8.76 - $9.60 | 19 |
| $9.60 - $10.44 | 49 |
| $10.44 - $11.28 | 102 |
| $11.28 - $12.12 | 136 |
| $12.12 - $12.95 | 140 |
| $12.95 - $13.79 | 138 |
| $13.79 - $14.63 | 106 |
| $14.63 - $15.47 | 97 |
| $15.47 - $16.31 | 61 |
| $16.31 - $17.15 | 56 |
| $17.15 - $17.99 | 32 |
| $17.99 - $18.83 | 21 |
| $18.83 - $19.67 | 12 |
| $19.67 - $20.51 | 12 |
| $20.51 - $21.35 | 5 |
| $21.35 - $22.19 | 7 |
| $22.19 - $23.03 | 3 |
| $23.03 - $23.87 | 3 |
| $23.87 - $24.71 | 0 |
| $24.71 - $25.55 | 1 |